September Effect: Potential Safe Haven Stocks Amid Market Volatility

自1928年以来， $标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$

“九月效应”似乎再次出现，截至周一收盘，标普500指数本月至今下跌3.14%，现在已经是九月的第二个星期。

上周，我们发表了“华尔街再次面临九月诅咒。有什么新动态和如何应对？ 1) betting on increased volatility, 2) investing in defensive high-dividend sectors like utilities and consumer staples, and 3) holding cash and waiting to buy quality stocks in the historically strong Q4.

Over the past five years, the S&P 500 has averaged a 4.2% decline in September. However, nine stocks have consistently outperformed the S&P 500 in September, each delivering an average return of over 1%. These stocks may serve as potential safe havens amid market turbulence.

September Effect: Potential Safe Haven Stocks Amid Market Volatility

Leading the pack is apparel retailer $爱芬奇 (ANF.US)$, with an average September return of 6.7%. The stock has surged 285% in the past year and is up 51% year-to-date.

Abercrombie posted robust earnings in late August, with same-store sales up 18% and earnings per share soaring 127% year-over-year. The company also significantly raised its full-year sales forecast and operating margin, though management cautioned about an "increasingly uncertain environment" and offered conservative quarterly guidance. Despite strong results, the stock fell 17% post-earnings, currently trading at $133, a 32% retreat from its May peak of $196.

Wall Street remains optimistic about Abercrombie. JPMorgan added the stock to its Analyst Focus List post-earnings, maintaining an Overweight rating and $194 price target. Citi upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy, keeping a $190万亿.rget. Citi sees 10 reasons why "the Abercrombie story is not over," highlighting the recent selloff as an opportunity to own a "unique asset." The bank cites Abercrombie's remarkable turnaround, robust same-store sales, and conservative second-half guidance.

Second on the list is $如瑞迪博士 (RDY.US)$，9月平均回报率为5.1%。这家大型仿制药制造商在8月初达到了84.5美元的历史最高点。

第三名是物流和运输公司 $莱德系统 (R.US)$ ，9月平均回报率为4.0%。Ryder在8月下旬创下了145.6美元的历史新高。该公司连续19年回购股份，并提供高分红派息。