特斯拉首席执行官马斯克正在制定“史诗”总体规划4。期待大量的机器人。-- Barrons.com
讲好Tesla故事，吃好Tesla大饼。
“画饼”（其实是按计划有步骤地进行着远景的基础工作）务虚的利多时，仓位重的可以兑现一些浮盈；所谓的“利空”信息满天飞，股价大跌时，勇敢地走出空虚寂寞，大胆地分梯度分批次，有计划有步骤地，离散型随机变量，建仓布局。
大量筹码都是被套，处于浮亏状态。拉升阻力很大，绝大多数人远远没有解套。小摩和大摩确实厉害。他们现在华丽转身变成Tesla的大多头，只是现在Tesla基本面还没有出现重大变化的苗头之前，在相对技术高位，大机构是不太愿意出资大力拉升的。绝大多数散户等解套了，或者微利就会逃跑。等下一次看到跌不下去，最好又涨了，他们才又开始愿意买进，他们称之为跟着趋势走。周而复始。
Tesla CEO Musk Is Working On 'Epic' Master Plan 4. Expect Plenty of Robots. -- Barrons.com
特斯拉CEO马斯克正在制定“史诗级”第四项大计划。预计会有大量机器人。-- Barrons.com
Al Root
To his detractors, Tesla CEO Elon Musk overpromises and underdelivers. To his supporters, he is the key to generating trillions in shareholder value from not only all-electric cars, but from robots, robotaxis, and artificial intelligence computing.
在他的反对者眼中，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克过于夸大其词并未兑现承诺。而在他的支持者看来，他不仅可以通过全电动汽车，还可以通过机器人、机器人出租车和人工智能计算为股东创造数万亿的价值。
The debate between the two factions is about to get a lot louder as Musk works on his "Master Plan 4," which promises to usher in an era of robotics that no one is expecting.
两派之间的争论即将升级，因为马斯克正在制定他的“第四项总体计划”，承诺带来一个没有人预料的机器人时代。
"Working on the Tesla Master Plan 4," Musk tweeted on June 17. "It will be epic."
马斯克于6月17日发推文称：“正在制定特斯拉第四项总体计划，将是史诗级别。”
Tesla only released Master Plan 3 in April 2023. Exactly when Master Plan 4 will be unveiled is anyone's guess. Tesla didn't respond to a request for comment about when it would be ready.
特斯拉仅于2023年4月发布了第三项总体计划。特斯拉何时公布第四项计划还是一个未知数。特斯拉没有回应关于何时准备就绪的请求。
Musk is accelerating his planning process though. Master Plan 1 came out in 2006. It detailed Tesla's ambition to use the experience acquired by making a high-priced luxury all-electric car to produce an affordable all-electric car. Musk did it. The Model 3 came out in 2016. By automotive standards, it was a wild success.
尽管如此，马斯克正在加速计划进程。第一项计划于2006年发布，阐述了特斯拉利用制作高价位豪华全电动汽车获得的经验，生产廉价全电动汽车的雄心壮志。马斯克做到了。Model 3于2016年问世，按照汽车标准，它是一个巨大的成功。
Master Plan 2, or Part Deux as Tesla named it, arrived in 2016. It detailed Tesla's plans to offer more models and started Tesla, and Tesla investors, down the path of autonomous driving.
第二项计划于2016年发布，名称为“Part Deux”，详细介绍了特斯拉的计划，并开始让特斯拉和特斯拉的投资者走上自动驾驶之路。
Musk has done some of that. Tesla has expanded its product lineup. It's making semi-trucks. It started delivering the Cybertruck in 2023. A lower-priced Tesla model is due in 2025.
马斯克已经开始着手其中的一些计划，特斯拉扩大了产品线，制造半挂车，于2023年开始交付Cybertruck，一个价格更低的特斯拉车型将于2025年推出。
Fully self-driving Teslas aren't here yet, though. Tesla is hosting a Robotaxi Day on August 8. Investors will expect to see a robotaxi prototype and hear about artificial intelligence-trained software improvements.
然而完全自动驾驶的特斯拉还没有出现。特斯拉将于8月8日举办一个机器人出租车日。投资者期待看到机器人出租车的原型，并了解经过人工智能训练的软件改进。
Master Plan 3 arrived in 2023. It was about the opportunity in solar and battery storage to wean the world off fossil fuels. Electric cars, renewable power generation, and battery storage to save electricity for when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing have always been part of Musk's vision.
第三份总体计划于2023年发布，旨在通过太阳能和电池存储的机会远离化石燃料。电动汽车，可再生能源发电和电池存储，即使在没有阳光和风的情况下也可以节约电力，一直是马斯克愿景的一部分。
Plan 3 is partly done, too. Tesla deployed roughly 15 gigawatt hours of battery storage over the past year. That's enough electricity to power roughly 1,500 U.S. homes for a year.
第三个计划已经部分完成。特斯拉在过去一年中部署了大约15吉瓦时的电池储存。这足够为大约1500户美国家庭提供一年的电力。
"We expect Master Plan 4 to be underpinned by Tesla's commercial ambitions in A.I., robotics, hybrid-compute...that spans from cloud to edge," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas in a recent report.
“我们预计第四项总体计划将以特斯拉在人工智能、机器人、混合计算领域的商业野心为支撑……从云到边缘。”大摩资源lof分析师亚当·乔纳斯在最近的一份报告中写道。
"Hybrid-compute" at the edge can refer to using computers in Teslas to do work, and earn money, while the cars aren't being driven.
“边缘混合计算”可以指使用特斯拉中的计算机进行工作和赚钱，而车辆未被驾驶。
Hybrid-compute is new for investors. Robots aren't. Tesla is building a humanoid robot called Optimus and Musk has said the robotics business could be bigger than the car business one day. That's an aspirational statement. There are no robots for sale just yet. They could be used in manufacturing operations or personal droids.
混合计算对投资者而言是新的概念。但机器人并不新鲜。特斯拉正在制造一个名为Optimus的人形机器人，马斯克曾表示，机器人业务有朝一日可能比汽车业务更大。这是一个雄心勃勃的声明。现在还没有出售机器人。它们可以用于制造业务或个人机器人。
"Who doesn't want a C-3PO," said Musk at his company's annual shareholder meeting on June 13, referring to the humanoid droid from the Star Wars movie franchise.
“谁不想要一个C-3PO，”马斯克在6月13日公司的年度股东大会上说，指的是来自《星球大战》电影系列的人形机器人。
When Master Plan 4 is released, Tesla will have three plans in various stages of completion. Detractors will question whether that's smart and if any of the remaining items will come to fruition. Acolytes will insist things will work out.
当特斯拉发布第四项总体计划时，特斯拉将拥有三个处于不同完成阶段的计划。反对者会质疑这是否明智，是否有剩下的计划将会实现。信徒将坚持认为一切都会成功。
What working out means is Tesla re-achieving its trillion-dollar market valuation. Tesla first hit a $1 trillion market value in late 2021. Today, Tesla's market value is about $570 billion.
实现的意思是特斯拉重新获得万亿美元的市场价值。特斯拉在2021年年底首次达到1万亿美元的市值。而今天，特斯拉的市值约为5700亿美元。
Coming into Tuesday's trading, Tesla stock was down about 27% so fa this year while the Nasdaq Composite was up about 17%. Slowing car sales have weighed on investor sentiment. Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver about 1.8 million cars in 2024, flat with 2023 volumes. At the start of the year, that projection was about 2.1 million.
截至周二的交易时，特斯拉股票今年迄今已下跌约27％，而纳斯达克综合指数已上涨约17％。汽车销量放缓使投资者信心受到打击。华尔街预计特斯拉在2024年交付的汽车数量将约为180万辆，与2023年的交付量相当。而在年初，这个预测是210万辆左右。
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
请写信给Al Root，地址为allen.root@dowjones.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
此内容由Barron's创建，由Dow Jones & Co.运营。Barron's独立于Dow Jones Newswires和华尔街日报发行。
Tesla delivery results are coming. this is the real number to watch, and it's worrying 特斯拉交付结果即将公布。这是实际需要关注的数字，而且令人担忧。
Tesla's second-quarter delivery results have the power to move the stock. In which direction depends, of course, on what the electric-vehicle maker reports and what investors expect.
特斯拉第二季度的交付结果有能力影响股票价格。股票的涨跌取决于这家电动汽车制造商所报告的内容以及投资者的期望。
Tesla typically reports quarterly deliveries on the second day of a new quarter. For the second quarter of 2024, the Wall Street consensus call compiled by FactSet is about 440,00o cars delivered, down from about 466,000 cars delivered in the second quarter of 2023.
特斯拉通常在新季度的第二天发布季度交付情况。根据FactSet组织的华尔街共识，2024年第二季度交付量约为44万辆，低于2023年第二季度的约46.6万辆。
The 440,00 figure is too high. Analysts don't always update numbers at the same rate. They can get stale. The most recent estimates are lower. That's a better guide for investors looking to see how the stock will react.
44万辆的数字过高。分析师们并不总是以相同的频率更新数据，有时数据会陈旧。最新的估计更低，这对想知道股票将如何反应的投资者来说是更好的指导。
RBC analyst Tom Narayan took his second-quarter delivery estimate down to 410,000 from 433,000 on Tuesday. He looks at app downloads and registration data, among other things to come up with his number.
周二，RBC分析师汤姆·奈拉扬将他的第二季度交付预期从433,000下调至410,000。他会查看应用下载量和注册数据等信息来得出他的数字。
Narayan rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $227 price target for the stock. Guggenheim analyst Ronal Jewsikow rates them Sell. His price target is $126.
纳拉扬给特斯拉股票评级为买入，股票的目标价为227美元。Guggenheim分析师Ronald Jewsikow给特斯拉股票评为卖出，他的目标价格为126美元。
Also on Tuesday, Jewsikow moved his estimate up to 419,000 from 409,000 cars.
同样在周二，Jewsikow将他的估计从409,000辆汽车上调至419,000辆。
Other recent updates have come from New Street Research's Pierre Ferragu, independent researcher Troy Teslike, and Barclays' Dan Levy. The average of their new numbers is about 419,000.
最近还有来自新街研究公司的Pierre Ferragu、独立研究员Troy Teslike和巴克莱银行的Dan Levy的更新。他们新的估计平均约为419,000辆。
What all this means for investors is a number between 415,000 and 420,000 deliveries should be good enough to support the stock, no matter where the final consensus number lands.
对于投资者来说，这意味着在415,000辆和420,000辆之间的交付量足以支撑股票，无论最终共识数字落在哪里。
Stock support in the short run is great, but a result in that range still implies a drop of more than 10% year over year. That would be the second consecutive year-over-year decline for Tesla.
在短期内支撑股票是好事，但在那个范围内的结果仍意味着同比下降超过10%。这将是特斯拉连续第二年同比下降。
The lack of growth in 2024 has weighed on Tesla's stock. Through Tuesday trading, shares were down about 25% so far this year while the Nasdaq Composite was up about 18%.
2024年的增长不足已经压低了特斯拉的股价。截至周二的交易，特斯拉的股价已经下跌了约25%，而纳斯达克综合指数则上涨了约18%。
Wall Street expects sales to pick up later in the year and growth to resume in 2025, powered by more Cybertruck deliveries and a new lower-priced Tesla.
华尔街预计销售额将在年底后提振，2025年将恢复增长，由更多的Cybertruck交付和一个新的价格更低的特斯拉推动。
For 2024 Wall Street expects about 1.8 million cars sold, essentially flat with 2023. For 2025, the current consensus call is for 2.1 million cars sold.
2024年，华尔街预计销售约180万辆，基本与2023年相同。对于2025年，目前的共识是将销售210万辆。
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102764470 : 200 以上筹码这样少吗
Elias Chen 楼主 : 大量筹码都是被套，处于浮亏状态。拉升阻力很大，绝大多数人远远没有解套。小摩和大摩确实厉害。他们现在华丽转身变成Tesla的大多头，只是现在Tesla基本面还没有出现重大变化的苗头之前，在相对技术高位，大机构是不太愿意出资大力拉升的。绝大多数散户等解套了，或者微利就会逃跑。等下一次看到跌不下去，最好又涨了，他们才又开始愿意买进，他们称之为跟着趋势走。周而复始。