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$苹果 (AAPL.US)$ 为什么这位顶级策略师认为科技巨头仍有上涨空间 - Barrons.com提到:AAPL AMZN ASML MSFT SAP来源: Reshma Kapadia
Nicholas Colas为基金经理撰写一份广为阅读的晨间简报,其中汲取了这位新闻记者在华尔街的30年经验,结合经济数据、市场动态、投资者心理和颠覆性趋势的洞察力。
作为DataTrek研究的合作创始人,科拉斯(Colas)于上世纪80年代中期进入华尔街,他首次了解华尔街是在如今的瑞银安联基金的邮件室,当时共同基金行业正蓬勃发展。科拉斯于1991年开始作为信用Suisse的分析师,覆盖汽车行业,正式进入了华尔街的职业生涯。他后来在SAC Capital工作,从对冲基金经理Steve Cohen那里学到了在投资中理解情绪的重要性,之后在其他公司工作,担任市场策略师和研究负责人,最终于2017年创办了DataTrek。科拉斯多年来一直看好大型科技公司和颠覆力量的力量,并于2013年开始撰写有关比特币的文章。
《巴伦周刊》与科拉斯讨论了他为什么仍然喜欢美国股票,尽管有通货膨胀、高估值和奥密克戎变种的风险。在我们的对话编辑版本中,我们还了解到他为什么认为投资者学习金融建模和监控数字货币发展至关重要。
巴伦周刊:疫情大流行最令投资者关注的最重大变化是什么?
尼古拉斯·科拉斯:通货膨胀。这是经济中最大的变化。物价上涨了,而且不仅仅是一点点,而是很多,而且持续了两年。食品涨了15%;而工资没有上涨。作为一个投资者,我们必须考虑通货膨胀将如何起伏,并影响企业的盈利能力。对大公司来说,这对利润是有利的。
对于通货膨胀对企业收益的影响,担忧是否过于牵强?
很少有分析师知道如何对一个公司进行建模。我接受的培训是来自上世纪70年代建立自己职业生涯的人们的。关键在于理解成本如何体现在损益表中。有人认为如果PPI(生产者价格指数)上涨了4%,通货膨胀率也上涨了4%,收益就不会增长。这是完全错误的。每个公司都有一个不随通货膨胀而变动的固定成本结构。从数据中我们看到了这一点:上世纪70年代,企业利润的增长速度与通货膨胀一样快——股市的增长也与收益一样快。
这个市场的关键是企业收益,一直都是。对于明年标普500指数盈利预期达到240美元,完全合理;而市场预期是222美元。作为对比,在疫情之前的几年中,盈利为162到163美元。我们已经建立了一个新的企业收益阶梯函数——而且似乎是永久的。
即使公司面对劳动成本上升、供应链问题和监管压力,利润率如何保持高位?
定价能力。标普500指数与地球上任何其他指数都非常不同。它有两个优势:首先,它适用于美国经济,而美国的财政和货币政策比欧洲和亚洲激进数个数量级。因此,这是一个巨大的推动力,让利润率在经济衰退期间没有降至零。
我们正在谈论的是规模庞大的美国公司,在规模和范围经济方面具有巨大的优势,比较小公司,由于它们从美国业务中产生的现金流,具有在海外更强大的竞争定位。我们拥有的最重要的东西是大科技。不可能过分强调拥有标普500指数中20%的[Alphabet的] Google [逐笔明细: GOOGL],苹果[AAPL]和微软[MSFT]有多重要。没有其他公司能够与这些业务模式相匹配。
这些公司多年来一直是赢家。这种情况真的会持续下去吗?
多年来,这些公司一直是赢家。这种情况真的会持续下去吗?
投资者是否应该买这些股票的低点?
这是关于投资者对全球经济复苏有多少信心的一个独立讨论。可能在第二季度,你会看到对全球复苏的一阵热情,这可能导致科技巨头的表现较差片刻,因为人们将对金融业充满热情。
Nicholas Colas为基金经理撰写一份广为阅读的晨间简报,其中汲取了这位新闻记者在华尔街的30年经验,结合经济数据、市场动态、投资者心理和颠覆性趋势的洞察力。
作为DataTrek研究的合作创始人,科拉斯(Colas)于上世纪80年代中期进入华尔街,他首次了解华尔街是在如今的瑞银安联基金的邮件室,当时共同基金行业正蓬勃发展。科拉斯于1991年开始作为信用Suisse的分析师,覆盖汽车行业,正式进入了华尔街的职业生涯。他后来在SAC Capital工作,从对冲基金经理Steve Cohen那里学到了在投资中理解情绪的重要性,之后在其他公司工作,担任市场策略师和研究负责人,最终于2017年创办了DataTrek。科拉斯多年来一直看好大型科技公司和颠覆力量的力量,并于2013年开始撰写有关比特币的文章。
《巴伦周刊》与科拉斯讨论了他为什么仍然喜欢美国股票,尽管有通货膨胀、高估值和奥密克戎变种的风险。在我们的对话编辑版本中,我们还了解到他为什么认为投资者学习金融建模和监控数字货币发展至关重要。
巴伦周刊:疫情大流行最令投资者关注的最重大变化是什么?
尼古拉斯·科拉斯:通货膨胀。这是经济中最大的变化。物价上涨了,而且不仅仅是一点点,而是很多,而且持续了两年。食品涨了15%;而工资没有上涨。作为一个投资者,我们必须考虑通货膨胀将如何起伏,并影响企业的盈利能力。对大公司来说,这对利润是有利的。
对于通货膨胀对企业收益的影响,担忧是否过于牵强?
很少有分析师知道如何对一个公司进行建模。我接受的培训是来自上世纪70年代建立自己职业生涯的人们的。关键在于理解成本如何体现在损益表中。有人认为如果PPI(生产者价格指数)上涨了4%,通货膨胀率也上涨了4%,收益就不会增长。这是完全错误的。每个公司都有一个不随通货膨胀而变动的固定成本结构。从数据中我们看到了这一点:上世纪70年代,企业利润的增长速度与通货膨胀一样快——股市的增长也与收益一样快。
这个市场的关键是企业收益,一直都是。对于明年标普500指数盈利预期达到240美元,完全合理;而市场预期是222美元。作为对比,在疫情之前的几年中,盈利为162到163美元。我们已经建立了一个新的企业收益阶梯函数——而且似乎是永久的。
即使公司面对劳动成本上升、供应链问题和监管压力,利润率如何保持高位?
定价能力。标普500指数与地球上任何其他指数都非常不同。它有两个优势:首先,它适用于美国经济,而美国的财政和货币政策比欧洲和亚洲激进数个数量级。因此,这是一个巨大的推动力,让利润率在经济衰退期间没有降至零。
我们正在谈论的是规模庞大的美国公司,在规模和范围经济方面具有巨大的优势,比较小公司,由于它们从美国业务中产生的现金流,具有在海外更强大的竞争定位。我们拥有的最重要的东西是大科技。不可能过分强调拥有标普500指数中20%的[Alphabet的] Google [逐笔明细: GOOGL],苹果[AAPL]和微软[MSFT]有多重要。没有其他公司能够与这些业务模式相匹配。
这些公司多年来一直是赢家。这种情况真的会持续下去吗?
多年来,这些公司一直是赢家。这种情况真的会持续下去吗?
投资者是否应该买这些股票的低点?
这是关于投资者对全球经济复苏有多少信心的一个独立讨论。可能在第二季度,你会看到对全球复苏的一阵热情,这可能导致科技巨头的表现较差片刻,因为人们将对金融业充满热情。
已翻译
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2021 is the first year i started to invest in stocks. What a rocky year to start off with🤣 l’d like to share my 3 biggest mistakes and experiences as a new investor.
First of all, I recalled that I had a dilemma - buy at all time high if not it will go higher and never come back down OR wait till it drops. It’s scary to see the price increasing higher and higher. I asked myself “do I buy now when it’s all time high or wait and buy when the price drops?” I waited only to see it increased 😂 and I hurried to enter the market to buy only to see it dropped and dropped further 🥲
One other mistake I made was not a very smart decision to buy shares of a single company with a lump sum and lastly, the mistake was to invest ALL my capital in my portfolio.
What’s wrong with the mistake above and what have I learned is that, firstly, I learned to ONLY buy what I can afford. When we see the price at all time high, we all hope for a discount but it can go either way so i have decided to BUY only if I can AFFORD to LOSE. Of course, I have to do homework to find out if it’s a good company that I can invest in for a long term.👍
Secondly, investing with a lump sum with all capital made me realise that I do not have enough cash to buy when the price drops for dollar cost averaging and i realised I have to keep checking on my account balance because I fear that I might blow my account.
So what I did was that I decided to sell one of the stocks that takes up a greater portion of my portfolio. And before I decide to sell, I was hoping that it will go up to breakeven. However it didn’t and I sell at a greater loss. Good news is that I was still able to preserve most of it. 🥲
This investment experience allows me to realise the importance of patience, value and risk management. I learned that the guts to selling stock (that is either going to harm your capital or losses its value) at a loss is also a must-have in order to prevent the losses from snowballing.
When I first started out, I focused on growth stocks. Now with the extra capital from what I sold as mentioned above, I invest part of it into SG dividend stocks, with the rest as back up capital. This allows me to not worry so much when the market crashes as I have the capital to dollar cost average. It also helped me to not frantically check on my portfolio every now and then, knowing that I have the capital to prevent margin call. Even if I lose all the money in stocks, part of it is still in cash (for future investment if there’s good stocks or dollar cost averaging) this allows me to have a peace of mind as I know I won’t be losing all of my money.
Stocks are for long term and investing a lump sum can bring quick cash but also increase the risk. Right now I learned how to manage risk and also allowing myself to hold stocks for long periods of time. I believe it’s personal risk and investment preference so i believe everyone has their own way of investing (market timing, lump sum, dollar cost averaging, etc). I hope I have shared some insights and also to remind myself of the things I learn and I hope moomoo will continue to provide good investment experience for us. Wishing everyone Merry Xmas and looking forward to 2022!
$星展集团控股 (D05.SG)$ $Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF (META.US)$ $苹果 (AAPL.US)$
First of all, I recalled that I had a dilemma - buy at all time high if not it will go higher and never come back down OR wait till it drops. It’s scary to see the price increasing higher and higher. I asked myself “do I buy now when it’s all time high or wait and buy when the price drops?” I waited only to see it increased 😂 and I hurried to enter the market to buy only to see it dropped and dropped further 🥲
One other mistake I made was not a very smart decision to buy shares of a single company with a lump sum and lastly, the mistake was to invest ALL my capital in my portfolio.
What’s wrong with the mistake above and what have I learned is that, firstly, I learned to ONLY buy what I can afford. When we see the price at all time high, we all hope for a discount but it can go either way so i have decided to BUY only if I can AFFORD to LOSE. Of course, I have to do homework to find out if it’s a good company that I can invest in for a long term.👍
Secondly, investing with a lump sum with all capital made me realise that I do not have enough cash to buy when the price drops for dollar cost averaging and i realised I have to keep checking on my account balance because I fear that I might blow my account.
So what I did was that I decided to sell one of the stocks that takes up a greater portion of my portfolio. And before I decide to sell, I was hoping that it will go up to breakeven. However it didn’t and I sell at a greater loss. Good news is that I was still able to preserve most of it. 🥲
This investment experience allows me to realise the importance of patience, value and risk management. I learned that the guts to selling stock (that is either going to harm your capital or losses its value) at a loss is also a must-have in order to prevent the losses from snowballing.
When I first started out, I focused on growth stocks. Now with the extra capital from what I sold as mentioned above, I invest part of it into SG dividend stocks, with the rest as back up capital. This allows me to not worry so much when the market crashes as I have the capital to dollar cost average. It also helped me to not frantically check on my portfolio every now and then, knowing that I have the capital to prevent margin call. Even if I lose all the money in stocks, part of it is still in cash (for future investment if there’s good stocks or dollar cost averaging) this allows me to have a peace of mind as I know I won’t be losing all of my money.
Stocks are for long term and investing a lump sum can bring quick cash but also increase the risk. Right now I learned how to manage risk and also allowing myself to hold stocks for long periods of time. I believe it’s personal risk and investment preference so i believe everyone has their own way of investing (market timing, lump sum, dollar cost averaging, etc). I hope I have shared some insights and also to remind myself of the things I learn and I hope moomoo will continue to provide good investment experience for us. Wishing everyone Merry Xmas and looking forward to 2022!
$星展集团控股 (D05.SG)$ $Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF (META.US)$ $苹果 (AAPL.US)$
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$苹果 (AAPL.US)$ 股票已关闭 上涨 3.1% 周二,由于对新的omicron Covid变种的担忧,其他股票暴跌,这表明投资者将该公司视为市场不确定时期的避风港。
这个 $道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$下跌了651点,以科技为主的 $纳斯达克综合指数 (.IXIC.US)$下跌了 1.6% 还有 $标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$ 差不多失望了 1.9% 周二美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示,美联储将在12月的会议上讨论加快债券购买规模的问题。
由于该公司拥有惊人的现金流,使其能够承受经济放缓并利用价格下跌的机会。
但是没有完美的公司。过去五年来,对苹果的最大批评是没有新产品。当其他股价上涨时,它的股价已经停滞在一段时间了。也许这场危机是苹果的转折点。
你对公司有信心吗?
苹果在你的投资组合中占多少百分比?
来源:
为什么苹果是周二唯一上涨的科技股
这个 $道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$下跌了651点,以科技为主的 $纳斯达克综合指数 (.IXIC.US)$下跌了 1.6% 还有 $标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$ 差不多失望了 1.9% 周二美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示,美联储将在12月的会议上讨论加快债券购买规模的问题。
由于该公司拥有惊人的现金流,使其能够承受经济放缓并利用价格下跌的机会。
但是没有完美的公司。过去五年来,对苹果的最大批评是没有新产品。当其他股价上涨时,它的股价已经停滞在一段时间了。也许这场危机是苹果的转折点。
你对公司有信心吗?
苹果在你的投资组合中占多少百分比?
来源:
为什么苹果是周二唯一上涨的科技股
已翻译
![每日民意调查:苹果坚定地站在那里。](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/1638333455952-77777000-android-org.gif/thumb)
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港股弱势已成,有很高的大幅下跌风险,而美股方面昨晚看似有很不错的反弹,不过背后有机会是暗藏杀机,因为中小型股资金是继续大幅流出 $腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$ $阿里巴巴-W (09988.HK)$ $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$ $谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$ $微软 (MSFT.US)$ $苹果 (AAPL.US)$ $Moderna (MRNA.US)$
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![30 Nov 2021|恐慌再引爆全球资产跳水美股借口回调](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/1638279054297-103013592-android-org.jpg/thumb)
![30 Nov 2021|恐慌再引爆全球资产跳水美股借口回调](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/1638279054320-103013592-android-org.jpg/thumb)
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$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$ & $苹果 (AAPL.US)$ handed USD 225 million in Italian antitrust fines. They are penalised for alleged anti-competitive cooperation and price-fixing in the sale of some of their products.
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$苹果 (AAPL.US)$ 需要像以前一样专注于扩大他们的流媒体业务 $AT&T (T.US)$ 正在做。AAPL 车辆可能会发生,也可能不会发生,坦率地说,谁在乎?我相信2022年的AAPL将大力推动流媒体的发展,而这正是重大新闻的焦点。如果他们去的话会很有趣 $RAFINA INNOVATIONS INC (VICA.US)$要么 $狮门娱乐-A (LGF.A.US)$
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