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$花旗集团 (C.US)$ 许多银行一直处于强劲的上涨趋势中(甚至包括富国银行)
金融行业非常强劲,市盈率为5倍,拥有大量现金,并且显然受益于利率上涨
然而,今天它的股价已经跌至52周低位,我是不是错过了什么?
金融行业非常强劲,市盈率为5倍,拥有大量现金,并且显然受益于利率上涨
然而,今天它的股价已经跌至52周低位,我是不是错过了什么?
已翻译
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In December, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision boots landed, investors began to focus on the Omicron mutation virus.
But Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, believes the market is unprepared for a change in Fed policy.
The Fed may be beginning the long process of exiting its easy money policies, on which markets have long grown accustomed to relying.
While most major U.S. stock indexes remain near or at record highs, the sector rotation shows that the market has been considering such a shift by the Fed for months.
Shortly after the Jackson Hole meeting in late August, Chairman Powell first suggested tapering asset purchases before the end of the year, and he formally confirmed this message at the Fed's September meeting.
As Wilson notes, this fact has not been forgotten by the market over the past month, as investors have rotated out of the most speculative assets at a historic pace.
The question now, strategists at Morgan Stanley say, is "whether the Fed's policy shift is fully priced in, what areas remain vulnerable and where can investors find positive returns?"
Mr. Wilson has been watching valuations this year, and the most expensive stocks have faltered since the first quarter.
The strategist said the revaluation of U.S. stocks is now based on the equity risk premium (ERP) channel, not interest rates, because using current nominal or real interest rates to translate future cash flows could be a big mistake given the pace of inflation and the Fed's changing response function.
On the upside side, Mr. Wilson has been supporting value stocks since mid-March. In Morgan Stanley's annual outlook, analysts advised investors to focus more on large-cap defensive sectors rather than growth sectors.
The recommendation is based on the view that "the Fed and other central banks will begin to accelerate the exit of accommodative policies, which is bound to impact markets if not the economy."
Needless to say, growth stocks will be more vulnerable to this retrenchment than defensive stocks, given their much higher valuations.
Morgan Stanley strategists favor defensive sectors, arguing that policy tightening and the coming slowdown in economic growth could be worse than most expect.
The bank's two overweight sectors -- healthcare and real estate investment trusts -- have been doing well, and Morgan Stanley continues to be bullish on these two areas.
Morgan Stanley strategists also worry that the economy will slow more than most expect. While Omicron is part of the market's concern in the short term, Mr Wilson is more focused on the risk of a pick-up in supply, which could be compounded by waning consumption.
Consumer confidence remains at recessionary levels, largely due to higher inflation, which is expected to start showing up in spending in the first quarter of next year.
Mr Wilson concludes:
"This is the beginning of the end of financial repression; while a complete exit, as in the 1940s, is several years away, we believe the equity market will start discounting earlier, via the equity risk premium, which is better for value stocks than growth stocks."
$标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$ $纳斯达克 (NDAQ.US)$ $道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$ $富国银行 (WFC.US)$ $美国银行 (BAC.US)$ $高盛 (GS.US)$ $摩根士丹利 (MS.US)$ $花旗集团 (C.US)$
But Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, believes the market is unprepared for a change in Fed policy.
The Fed may be beginning the long process of exiting its easy money policies, on which markets have long grown accustomed to relying.
While most major U.S. stock indexes remain near or at record highs, the sector rotation shows that the market has been considering such a shift by the Fed for months.
Shortly after the Jackson Hole meeting in late August, Chairman Powell first suggested tapering asset purchases before the end of the year, and he formally confirmed this message at the Fed's September meeting.
As Wilson notes, this fact has not been forgotten by the market over the past month, as investors have rotated out of the most speculative assets at a historic pace.
The question now, strategists at Morgan Stanley say, is "whether the Fed's policy shift is fully priced in, what areas remain vulnerable and where can investors find positive returns?"
Mr. Wilson has been watching valuations this year, and the most expensive stocks have faltered since the first quarter.
The strategist said the revaluation of U.S. stocks is now based on the equity risk premium (ERP) channel, not interest rates, because using current nominal or real interest rates to translate future cash flows could be a big mistake given the pace of inflation and the Fed's changing response function.
On the upside side, Mr. Wilson has been supporting value stocks since mid-March. In Morgan Stanley's annual outlook, analysts advised investors to focus more on large-cap defensive sectors rather than growth sectors.
The recommendation is based on the view that "the Fed and other central banks will begin to accelerate the exit of accommodative policies, which is bound to impact markets if not the economy."
Needless to say, growth stocks will be more vulnerable to this retrenchment than defensive stocks, given their much higher valuations.
Morgan Stanley strategists favor defensive sectors, arguing that policy tightening and the coming slowdown in economic growth could be worse than most expect.
The bank's two overweight sectors -- healthcare and real estate investment trusts -- have been doing well, and Morgan Stanley continues to be bullish on these two areas.
Morgan Stanley strategists also worry that the economy will slow more than most expect. While Omicron is part of the market's concern in the short term, Mr Wilson is more focused on the risk of a pick-up in supply, which could be compounded by waning consumption.
Consumer confidence remains at recessionary levels, largely due to higher inflation, which is expected to start showing up in spending in the first quarter of next year.
Mr Wilson concludes:
"This is the beginning of the end of financial repression; while a complete exit, as in the 1940s, is several years away, we believe the equity market will start discounting earlier, via the equity risk premium, which is better for value stocks than growth stocks."
$标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$ $纳斯达克 (NDAQ.US)$ $道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$ $富国银行 (WFC.US)$ $美国银行 (BAC.US)$ $高盛 (GS.US)$ $摩根士丹利 (MS.US)$ $花旗集团 (C.US)$
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$蔚来 (NIO.US)$ Let’s goooo!🚀 NIO day soon! Lots of good news out there for NIO!👏🏻
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一月份的时候 $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$ Social Capital创始人兼首席执行官查马斯·帕利哈皮蒂亚说,交易价格约为800美元 $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$ 可能翻倍甚至三倍。
但是!! 他昨天透露,在过去的一年中,他已经出售了所有特斯拉股票。尽管他再次说他仍然看好特斯拉的未来,但我不再相信他了。如果他真的对特斯拉持乐观态度,他为什么要急于兑现?
那你呢?你认为他是想欺骗我们还是你认为他说的是实话?为什么?
奖励来电!评论赢取奖励!
我和Moomoo新闻组一起举办活动一个月!我每天都会发布讨论,Moomoo新闻团队将为活动提供奖励积分!我们将在每个工作日选出前 2 个 “喜欢” 和前 3 个 “有见地” 的评论以及每个周末前 10 名 “喜欢” 和前 10 名 “有见地” 的评论作为赢家。 欲了解更多详情,请单击 这里.
关注我加入最新的讨论!
但是!! 他昨天透露,在过去的一年中,他已经出售了所有特斯拉股票。尽管他再次说他仍然看好特斯拉的未来,但我不再相信他了。如果他真的对特斯拉持乐观态度,他为什么要急于兑现?
那你呢?你认为他是想欺骗我们还是你认为他说的是实话?为什么?
奖励来电!评论赢取奖励!
我和Moomoo新闻组一起举办活动一个月!我每天都会发布讨论,Moomoo新闻团队将为活动提供奖励积分!我们将在每个工作日选出前 2 个 “喜欢” 和前 3 个 “有见地” 的评论以及每个周末前 10 名 “喜欢” 和前 10 名 “有见地” 的评论作为赢家。 欲了解更多详情,请单击 这里.
关注我加入最新的讨论!
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$AMC院线 (AMC.US)$ $游戏驿站 (GME.US)$ $Clover Health (CLOV.US)$ $黑莓 (BB.US)$ $3B家居 (BBBY.US)$
你找到我了!今天的密码:“Mundo”
你找到我了!今天的密码:“Mundo”
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$蔚来 (NIO.US)$ droppin…. droppin…
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$维珍银河 (SPCE.US)$ 发生了什么?为什么被暂停了?
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