April US Core PCE Price Index gained 0.4% vs. expected 0.3% gain.
The cost of goods and services rose 0.4% in April and inflation more broadly appears to have gotten stuck in the 4% to 5% range, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to pause raising interest rates.
The increase in the personal consumption expenditures index was a tick higher than the Wall Street forecast. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation barometer.
The yearly increase in prices rose to 4.4% from 4.2% in the prior month, the government said Friday. Lower gasoline prices this year and slower increases in the cost of food have helped to bring the overall rate of inflation down.
Yet the core PCE index, which omits food and energy, suggests the progress in reducing inflation may have stalled. It also rose 0.4% last month.
What's more, the increase in the core rate of inflation over the past 12 months edged up to 4.7% from 4.6%. It's been stuck near 5% since last fall.
The core PCE rate is viewed by the Fed as the best predictor of future inflation trends.
Big picture: The most recent inflation readings aren't making it easy for senior Fed officials to decide what to do at their next big meeting in June.
Inflation is still far too high, they say, and it's not coming down fast enough. The increase in the PCE indexes are likely to add to their worries.
Yet the Fed might still decide to "skip" another rate increase in June to give itself more time to gauge the effects of past rate increases on the economy.
The central bank has raised a key short-term rate for 10 meetings in a row to a top end of 5.25% from near zero in the spring of 2022. Higher borrowing costs slow economic growth.
The Fed is also closely monitoring the U.S. banking system after a spate of failures in the spring raised questions about whether the turmoil would reduce lending. Less lending could have the effect on the economy of several rate hikes, some contend.
"If not considered appropriately, the Fed could tighten too much and needlessly raise the risk of a recession," Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said earlier this week.
Looking ahead: "All attention will turn to the next set of employment and [consumer price index] reports to judge whether the Fed can afford to pause on June 14, but today's report could well swing the pendulum back toward the hawkish contingent," said senior U.S. economist Sal Guatieri of BMO Capital Markets.
4月美国核心个人消费支出价格指数上涨0.4%,而预期的涨幅为0.3%。
4月份商品和服务成本上涨了0.4%,更广泛的通货膨胀率似乎停留在4%至5%的区间内,这使美联储关于是否暂停加息的决定复杂化。
个人消费支出指数的增长比华尔街的预测高出一点。个人消费支出指数是美联储首选的通胀晴雨表。
政府周五表示,物价的年涨幅从上个月的4.2%升至4.4%。今年汽油价格下跌和食品成本增长放缓有助于降低总体通货膨胀率。
然而,忽略了食品和能源的核心个人消费支出指数表明,降低通货膨胀的进展可能已经停滞不前。上个月它也上涨了0.4%。
此外,过去12个月的核心通货膨胀率从4.6%小幅上升至4.7%。自去年秋天以来,它一直停留在5%附近。
美联储将核心个人消费支出利率视为未来通胀趋势的最佳预测指标。
总体情况:最新的通胀数据使美联储高级官员不容易在6月的下一次重要会议上决定该怎么做。
他们说,通货膨胀率仍然太高,而且下降的速度还不够快。PCE指数的上涨可能会加剧他们的担忧。
然而,美联储可能仍会决定 “跳过” 6月份的另一次加息,以便有更多时间来评估过去加息对经济的影响。
央行已连续10次会议将关键短期利率从2022年春季的接近零提高至5.25%的最高水平。较高的借贷成本减缓了经济增长。
美联储也在密切关注美国银行体系,此前春季的一系列倒闭引发了人们对动荡是否会减少贷款的质疑。一些人认为,减少贷款可能会对经济产生几次加息的影响。
美联储行长克里斯托弗·沃勒本周早些时候表示:“如果考虑不当,美联储可能会过度收紧政策,不必要地增加衰退的风险。”
展望未来:BMO Capital Markets的高级美国经济学家萨尔·瓜蒂里表示:“所有注意力都将转向下一轮就业和(消费者物价指数)报告,以判断美联储是否有能力在6月14日暂停,但今天的报告很可能会使钟摆回鹰派队伍。”