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Reuters ·  05/22 14:00

By Howard Schneider

作者:霍华德·施耐德

- Even as They Acknowledged Disappointment Over Recent Inflation Readings, Federal Reserve Officials at Their Last Policy Meeting Indicated They Still Had Faith Price Pressures Would Ease, IF Only Slowly, According to the Minutes of the U.S. Central Bank's April 30-May 1 Session.

5月22日(路透社)— 根据美国央行4月30日至5月1日的会议纪要,尽管他们承认对最近的通胀数据感到失望,但美联储官员在上次政策会议上表示,他们仍然相信价格压力将缓解,即使只是缓慢缓解也是如此。

"Participants ... Noted That They Continued to Expect That Inflation Would Return to 2% Over the Medium Term," the Minutes Said, but "the Disinflation Would Likely Take Longer Than Previously Thought."

“参与者...会议纪要指出,他们继续预计通货膨胀率将在中期内恢复到2%,但是 “反通货膨胀可能需要比先前想象的更长的时间。”

While the Policy Response for Now Would "Involve Maintaining" the Central Bank's Benchmark Policy Rate at Its Current Level, the Minutes, Released on Wednesday, Also Reflected Discussion of Possible Further Hikes.

尽管目前的政策应对措施将 “涉及维持” 央行的基准政策利率在目前的水平,但周三发布的会议纪要也反映了对可能进一步加息的讨论。

"Various Participants Mentioned a Willingness to Tighten Policy Further Should Risks to Inflation Materialize in a Way That Such an Action Became Appropriate," Employing a Modifier That Doesn't Fit in the Usual Set of Words, Like Some, Many, and Most, Used in the Minutes to Give a Sense of How Many Officials Voiced a Particular Opinion.

“各种参与者提到,如果通货膨胀风险以适当的方式出现,他们愿意进一步收紧政策。” 他们使用了与会议纪要中常用的措辞不相符的修饰语来了解有多少官员表达了特定观点。

The Minutes Also Reflected Debate About Just How Restrictive Current Monetary Policy Is Given the Strength of the Economy, an Important Discussion Given the Need for Policy to Be "Sufficiently" Restrictive to Cool Inflation.

会议纪要还反映了关于当前货币政策如何限制经济实力的争论,鉴于政策需要 “足够” 限制以降温通货膨胀,这是一次重要的讨论。

Officials Since That Meeting Have Tamped Down Expectations for Imminent Interest Rate Cuts, Which Investors Now See Beginning in September.

自那次会议以来,官员们压低了对即将降息的预期,投资者现在预计降息将从9月开始。

But Even as Fed Officials Acknowledged the Risk of Inflation Pressures Again Building in the Economy, They Largely Viewed the Data From the Start of the Year as a Temporary Setback in the Battle to Return Inflation to the Central Bank's 2% Target.

但是,尽管美联储官员承认经济中通胀压力再次增加的风险,但他们基本上将年初的数据视为使通货膨胀率恢复到央行2%目标的斗争中的暂时挫折。

The Meeting Was the Sixth Straight to Feature No Change in Interest Rates. Policymakers at This Point Seem Likely to Keep the Fed's Benchmark Rate on Hold in the 5.25%-5.50% Range Until September at Least, After Their Confidence in Easing Price Pressures Was Shaken by Higher-Than-Expected Inflation Through the First Three Months of This Year.

该会议是连续第六次以利率不变为特征的会议。在今年前三个月高于预期的通货膨胀率动摇了他们对缓解价格压力的信心之后,此时的决策者似乎有可能将美联储的基准利率维持在5.25%-5.50%的区间内,至少直到9月。


Emerging Signs

新兴迹象

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, at His Post-Meeting Press Conference On May 1, Said It "Will Take Longer Than Previously Expected" for Policymakers to Become Comfortable That Inflation Will Resume the Decline Towards 2% That Had Cheered Them Through Much of Last Year.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上 5 月 1 日,表示 “需要比先前预期更长的时间”,决策者才能对通货膨胀率将恢复至去年大部分时间为他们欢呼的2%的下降感到满意。

In the Weeks Since Then, However, Some Signs Have Emerged That Inflation Is Again Easing, Demand Is Softening and the Labor Market Is Coming More Into Balance. Fed Officials Are Watching Closely for Signs of a Possible Slowdown in Consumption, and Warnings From Consumer-Facing Companies Point in That Direction.

但是,从那以后的几周里, 一些迹象 事实证明,通货膨胀再次缓解,需求疲软,劳动力市场更加平衡。美联储官员正在密切关注消费可能放缓的迹象,面向消费者的公司的警告指向了这个方向。

Firms Ranging From McDonald's Mcd.n to PepsiCo Pep.o Have Flagged in Recent Weeks the Strain That U.S. Consumers Are Under Due to Sticky Food Inflation and the Rising Costs of Eating Out, Renting Homes and Getting a Mortgage.

麦当劳等公司 mcd.n 致百事可乐 Pep.o 最近几周,人们指出,由于持续的食品通货膨胀以及外出就餐、租房和获得抵押贷款的成本上涨,美国消费者所承受的压力。

"We Remain Cautious in Our Near-Term Growth Outlook and We Expect Consumer Discretionary Trends to Remain Pressured in the Short-Term," Christina Hennington, Chief Growth Officer for Target Tgt.n, Said on Wednesday in a Media Call To Discuss the Retailer's Quarterly Results.

塔吉特首席增长官克里斯蒂娜·亨宁顿说:“我们对短期增长前景保持谨慎,我们预计短期内非必需消费品趋势仍将承受压力。” tgt.n周三在媒体电话会议上说 讨论零售商的季度业绩。

Still, Fed Officials Have Said That Gaining "Greater Confidence That Inflation Is Moving Sustainably Toward 2 Percent" - a Standard for Pivoting to Rate Cuts That They Have Embedded in Their Policy Statements Since January - Will Take More Time.

尽管如此,美联储官员仍表示,“增强对通货膨胀率持续向2%的信心”(这是他们自1月份以来在政策声明中纳入的降息的标准)将需要更多时间。

On Tuesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller Put the Time Frame at "Several Months."

周二,美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒将时限定为 “几个月”。

"in the Absence of a Significant Weakening in the Labor Market, I Need to See Several More Months of Good Inflation Data Before I Would Be Comfortable Supporting an Easing in the Stance of Monetary Policy" He Told the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

“在劳动力市场没有明显疲软的情况下,我需要再看到几个月的良好通胀数据,然后我才能放心地支持放松货币政策立场” 他告诉了 华盛顿的彼得森国际经济研究所。


(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)

(霍华德·施耐德报道;保罗·西芒编辑)

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