By Howard Schneider
霍华德·施耐德撰文
Washington, June 27 (Reuters) - Inflation in the U.S. "Appears to Be Narrowing" and That Should Allow the Federal Reserve to Cut Interest Rates Later This Year, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Said in a Policy Essay Released on Thursday.
华盛顿，6月27日 (路透社)—亚特兰大联储银行行长拉斐尔·博斯蒂克 (Raphael Bostic) 在周四发布的一篇政策论文中表示，美国的通胀“似乎正在收窄”，这应该可以让美联储在今年晚些时候降息。
After Concern That Inflation Might Stall at an Elevated Level, Bostic Said Recent Data Point to Renewed Progress, Including the Fact That the Share of Goods and Services Increasing at a Greater Than 5% Annual Rate Had Dipped Below 20% - More Akin to Where It Was Before the Covid-19 Pandemic and Similar to the Share Seen When Inflation Was Slowing Fast Last Year.
博斯蒂克说，在担心通胀可能会陷入高位后停滞不前之后，最近的数据表明出现了新的进展，包括物品和服务的涨幅超过5%的份额已经下降到20%以下——与新冠疫情大流行前接近，以及去年通胀放缓期间所见到的份额类似。
"It's Moving in the Right Direction," Bostic Said of a Metric He Has Singled Out as One of His Touchstones for the U.S. Central Bank's Battle Against Inflation That Spiked to a 40-Year High in 2022.
博斯蒂克称，这一度量指标是其美国央行抗击通胀战斗中的支撑基石之一，并说：“它正在往着正确的方向发展。”通胀曾在2022年达到40年来的最高点。
Inflation Remains "Elevated," According to the Fed's Most Recent Policy Statement, With the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Rising at a 2.7% Annual Rate in April. the Fed's Inflation Target Is 2%, and There Has Been Little Progress in Recent Months.
据美联储最近的政策声明显示，通胀仍然“处于高位”，四月份的个人消费支出物价指数同比上涨了2.7％。美联储的通胀目标是2％，近几个月几乎没有进展。
PCE Inflation Data for May Will Be Released on Friday.
五月份的个人消费支出物价指数数据将于周五公布。
Bostic Said That as Things Stand, "I Continue to Believe Conditions Will Likely Call for a Cut in the Federal Funds Rate in the Fourth Quarter of This Year." in Later Comments to Reporters, He Said That One Reason to Be "Patient" With That Initial Cut Is so That It Comes After Inflation Is on a Clear Path Back to 2%, and Can Be Seen as the First of a Series of Reductions.
博斯蒂克说，目前情况下，“我继续相信，今年第四季度可能会需要降低联邦基金利率。”他稍后对记者表示，将初始降息时机推迟至通胀明显回归2％的道路上并可视为连续降息的首次降息之一，是他“耐心”的原因之一。
Investors Expect the Rate Cuts Will Start in September, With Two Quarter-Percentage-Point Reductions by the End of This Year Versus the Single Rate Cut That Bostic and Many Other Fed Policymakers Now Anticipate.
投资者预计利率削减将从9月份开始，到今年年底将会有两次0.25个百分点的降息，而非博斯蒂克和其他许多美联储政策制定者现在预期的单次利率削减。
"I'm Not Locked in to Any Particular Policy Path," Bostic Said. "There Are Plausible Scenarios in Which More Cuts, No Cuts, or Even a Raise Could Be Appropriate. I Will Let the Data and Conditions on the Ground Be My Guide."
博斯蒂克说：“我没有锁定任何特定的政策路径。有可能的情况包括更多的削减、没有削减，甚至是加息。我将以数据和现实情况为指南。”
And Recent Data on Jobs and Economic Growth, He Said, Point to "an Orderly Deceleration in Activity That Will Restore Balance Between Demand and Supply in the Economy ... It's Really Econ 101."
他说，最近的就业和经济增长数据表明，“活动正在有序地减速，这将在经济需求和供应之间恢复平衡…这是真正的经济学101。”
Businesses in His Southeastern District, He Said in a Press Briefing Following Release of the Essay, Still Regard Inflation as the "Chief Concern," With Most Saying That Current Hiring and Employment Levels Are Sustainable.
在他在论文发布后召开的新闻发布会上，他说他所在的东南地区的企业仍然将通胀视为“首要关注问题”，并且大多数人认为目前的招聘和就业水平是可持续的。
Bostic Said His Sense Is That There Is No "Cliff" Ahead for the Job Market, and That He Believes the Fed Can Meet Its Inflation Goal "With Labor Markets ... That Are Tight by Historical Standards."
博斯蒂克说，他的感觉是未来的职位市场不会面临“悬崖”式的问题，他相信美联储可以通过“历史水平紧缩的劳动力市场”来实现其通胀目标。
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)
(霍华德·施耐德报道；保罗·西莫编辑)
((Howard.schneider@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 789 8010;))
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