"if the Economy Evolves Broadly as Expected, Policy Will Move Over Time Toward a More Neutral Stance," Powell Said. "but We Are Not on Any Preset Course. the Risks Are Two-Sided, and We Will Continue to Make Our Decisions Meeting by Meeting."By Howard Schneider
霍华德·施耐德
Nashville, Tennessee, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. Economy Seems Poised for a Continued Slowdown in Inflation That Will Allow the Federal Reserve to Cut Its Benchmark Interest Rate and "Over Time" Reach a Level That Is No Longer Holding Back Activity, Fed Chair Jerome Powell Said on Monday in Remarks That Showed No Obvious Lean Towards a Faster or Slower Pace of Rate Reductions.
田纳西州纳什维尔，9月30日（路透社） - 美国经济似乎做好继续通胀放缓的准备，这将使联邦储备能够降低其基准利率，并“随着时间的推移”达到不再限制活动的水平，联邦储备主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周一表示，他的讲话未明显倾向于更快或更慢的降息速度。
"Disinflation Has Been Broad-Based, and Recent Data Indicate Further Progress Toward a Sustained Return to 2%," the Fed's Targeted Inflation Level, Powell Said in Remarks Prepared for Delivery at a National Association for Business Economics Conference In Nashville, Tennessee.
“通货紧缩已经普遍存在，并最近的数据显示，朝着稳定回归2%的目标通胀率取得了进展，” 鲍威尔在为纳什维尔的国家商业经济学协会会议准备的发言中说。
"if the Economy Evolves Broadly as Expected, Policy Will Move Over Time Toward a More Neutral Stance," Powell Said. "but We Are Not on Any Preset Course. the Risks Are Two-Sided, and We Will Continue to Make Our Decisions Meeting by Meeting."
“如果经济走势符合预期，政策将逐渐朝着更加中立的立场发展，” 鲍威尔说。“但我们没有制定任何预设路线。风险是双向的，我们将继续逐次做出决定。”
The Fed Cut Rates by Half a Percentage Point at Its Sept. 17-18 Meeting, Lowering the Range of Its Policy Rate From a 20-Year High of 5.25%-5.50%, Which It Had Maintained for 14 Months, to the Current 4.75%-5.00% Range. Economic Projections Released at That Meeting Showed the Median Policymaker Expectation Was for the Rate to Decline Further to the 4.25%-4.50% Range by the End of the Year, to the 3.25%-3.50% Range by the End of 2025, and for Policy Easing to End in 2026 With the Rate Around the Longer-Run Estimated "Neutral" Level of 2.9%.
美联储在9月17-18日的会议上将利率下调了半个百分点，将政策利率区间从5.25%-5.50%（保持了14个月之久的20年高点）降至当前的4.75%-5.00%区间。那次会议公布的经济预测显示，中位数决策者预期利率到年底将进一步下降至4.25%-4.50%区间，到2025年底进一步下降至3.25%-3.50%区间，政策宽松将在2026年结束，利率在长期预期的“中立”水平2.9%左右。
But Investors Have Been Divided Over Whether the U.S. Central Bank Will Slip Into a Series of Quarter-Percentage-Point Cuts Now or Perhaps Be Prompted to Make Another Large Cut if the Job Market Weakens or Inflation Slows More Than Expected.
但投资者对美联储是否会立即进行一系列四分之一百分点的降息意见分歧，或许会在就业市场疲弱或通胀放缓超出预期时被促使再次进行大幅降息。
Powell's Reference to "Two-Sided" Risks, However, Points to an Open Debate as Data Accumulate, With The Release on Friday of the U.S. Employment Report for September Being The First of Two Major Labor Market Reports the Fed Will Receive Before Its Nov. 6-7 Meeting. the Most Recent Inflation Data Showed a Headline Rate of Just 2.2%, Near the Fed's Target, While a "Core" Measure Stripped of Food and Energy Costs Has Been Stalled Around 2.6% to 2.7% for Four Months.
鲍威尔对"双边"风险的提及指向一场随着数据积累而展开的辩论，美国9月份就业报告将于周五发布，这是美联储11月6-7日会议前将收到的两份主要劳动力市场报告之一。最近的通胀数据显示，总体率仅为2.2%，接近美联储的目标，而去除食品和能源成本的"核心"指标在过去四个月一直停滞在2.6%至2.7%左右。
Powell, However, Said He Felt That "Broader Economic Conditions ... Set the Table for Further Disinflation."
不过，鲍威尔表示他认为“更广泛的经济状况... 为进一步通货紧缩做好了准备。”
Goods Prices Have Been Declining, While the Once-Sticky Aspects of the Service Industry Saw Inflation Now "Close to Its Pre-Pandemic Pace," Powell Said.
商品价格一直在下降，而服务业中一度黏性较强的方面如今看到通货膨胀现在“接近疫情前的速度，”鲍威尔说。
Progress on Housing Inflation Has Been "Sluggish," the Fed Chief Said, but "the Growth Rate in Rents Charged to New Tenants Remains Low. as Long as That Remains the Case, Housing Services Inflation Will Continue to Decline."
住房通胀的进展一直“缓慢，”美联储主席表示，但“对新租户收取的租金增长率仍然较低。只要情况仍然如此，住房服务通胀将继续下降。”
The Job Market Remains "Solid," He Said, With a 4.2% Unemployment Rate Still a Low Level and Around That Which Fed Officials Consider Sustainable in the Long Run With Inflation at the Central Bank's Target.
他说，就业市场仍然“稳固，”4.2%的失业率仍然是一个低水平，并且在长期内考虑通胀目标时是可持续的水平。
"Overall, the Economy Is in Solid Shape; We Intend to Use Our Tools to Keep It There," Powell Said, Adding That the Fed Had Made "a Good Deal of Progress" in Lowering Inflation Without a Sharp Rise in Joblessness.
“总的来说，经济形势稳固；我们打算利用我们的工具保持这种状态，”鲍威尔说，还表示美联储在降低通胀的同时没有出现大幅度增加失业率方面已经取得了“相当大的进展。”
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)
（霍华德·施耐德报道；保罗·西马奥编辑）
((Howard.schneider@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 789 8010;))
((Howard.schneider@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 789 8010;))
