By Howard Schneider
霍华德·施耐德
Dec 2 (Reuters) - Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic Said on Monday He Has an Open Mind About Whether to Cut Interest Rates Again at the Fed's December Meeting, With Upcoming Data on Jobs Important in Shaping the Decision.
12月2日(路透社)- 亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长拉斐尔·博斯蒂克周一表示,他对是否在联邦储备的12月会议上再次降息持开放态度,近期的就业数据对决策至关重要。
"There Is a Lot of Uncertainty," Bostic Said in Comments to Reporters. "I Am Not Going Into This Meeting With a Sense That It Is Preordained...we Have Important Data Points That Are Coming in," Including Information to Be Released Friday on November Job Growth.
博斯蒂克在对记者的评论中表示:“有很多不确定性。我并没有以预先注定的心态走进这次会议……我们即将获得的重要数据点。”包括周五发布的关于11月就业增长的信息。
In an Essay Also Released on Monday, Bostic Said His Base Case Remains That Inflation Will Continue to Fall to the Fed's 2% Target, Though It Remains an Open Question How Far and How Fast Interest Rates Should Be Reduced to Ensure That Happens While Avoiding Any Undue Damage to the Job Market.
在周一同时发布的一篇文章中,博斯蒂克表示他的基本情况仍然是通胀将继续下降至联邦储备的2%目标,尽管仍然存在一个悬而未决的问题,即为了确保这一目标的实现,利率应降低到何种程度和速度,同时避免对就业市场造成不当损害。
"My Base Case on Inflation Remains That We Are on Track to Reach the 2% Objective," Bostic Said, With Housing Costs, a Main Reason Inflation Has Stalled Above That Level, Likely in the Process of Slowing, and Business Contacts Reporting That Economic Growth and Price Pressures Are Both Easing.
博斯蒂克表示:“我对通胀的基本情况依然是我们正朝着2%目标前进。”住房成本是通胀停滞在该水平之上的主要原因,可能正在减缓,而商业联系人报告称经济增长和价格压力均在减缓。
While Some Measures of Inflation Have Shown Little Progress in Recent Months, "Weighing the Totality of the Data, I Do Not View the Recent Bumpiness as a Sign That Progress Toward Price Stability Has Completely Stalled," Said Bostic, a Voter on Fed Policy This Year.
虽然近期某些通胀指标显示进展有限,“权衡所有数据后,我并不认为近期的波动是通往价格稳定的进展完全停滞的迹象。”博斯蒂克表示,他是今年联邦储备政策的投票成员。
He Did Not in His Prepared Remarks Say Whether He Favored a Rate Cut at the Coming Dec. 17-18 Meeting, as Expected by Investors. the Fed Cut Rates at Its November Session to Set the Benchmark Interest Rate at a Range of From 4.5% to 4.75%.
他在准备好的讲话中并没有说明他是否支持在即将到来的12月17日至18日会议上降息,正如投资者所预期的那样。联邦储备在11月会议上降息,将基准利率设定在区间4.5%至4.75%。
With Risks Roughly Balanced Between the Fed's Aim of Sustaining the Maximum Level of Employment Possible While Keeping Inflation at 2%, Bostic Said It Made Sense for the Fed to Be "Shifting Monetary Policy Toward a Stance That Neither Stimulates nor Restrains Economic Activity."
博斯蒂克表示,在美联储达到尽可能维持最大就业水平与保持2%通胀之间的风险大致平衡的情况下,"调整货币政策朝向既不刺激也不限制经济活动的立场是合理的"。
How Much Further the Fed Needs to Cut to Reach That Level, or How Fast It Should Do so, However, Remain Open Questions Bostic Said, Framed Now by Potential Weakness in the Job Market as Well as Uncertainty Around the Path of the Economy.
博斯蒂克表示,美联储到底还需要多大幅度的减息以达到该水平,或者应以多快的速度进行减息,仍然是开放的问题,这些问题现在受到了就业市场潜在疲软以及经济前景不确定性影响。
Bostic in a Projection Issued in September Said He Anticipated the Fed Would Only Need to Reduce Its Benchmark Rate by Three Quarters of a Percentage Point This Year, an Amount Equal to the Cuts Already Made. He Said He Has Not yet Settled on a New Projection for the Appropriate Cuts Likely for 2025.
博斯蒂克在九月份发布的预测中表示,他预计美联储今年只需要将基准利率降低75个基点,这一幅度与已实施的减息相等。他表示,他尚未确定2025年适当的减息新预测。
Bostic Said That in General He Feels the Job Market Was "Cooling in a Largely Orderly Fashion in the Face of Higher Interest Rates...this Is Welcome News."
博斯蒂克表示,通常他觉得就业市场在高利率面前"以相对有序的方式降温……这是一个可喜的消息。"
Though He Said He Viewed the Economy Heading Into 2025 as on Solid Ground, He Acknowledged That Could Change, Particularly Given Risks Around International Events and Developing U.S. Policy. the Incoming Administration of Donald Trump Has Pledged to Pursue Policies, Including Import Tariffs, Tax Cuts, and Tight Immigration, That Some Economists Believe Could Cause Prices to Begin Rising Again.
虽然他说他认为经济在2025年前景稳固,但他也承认这种状况可能会改变,尤其是考虑到国际事件和美国政策发展的风险。特朗普概念即将上任的政府承诺将推行包括进口关税、减税和移民收紧在内的政策,一些经济学家相信这些政策可能会导致物价再次上涨。
"Geopolitical Uncertainties Linger at Home and Abroad, and Could Generate Renewed Inflationary Pressures," Bostic Said. "a Continuation of the Positive String of Macroeconomic Developments Is Not Assured. Uncertainties Persist on Various Fronts and Risks Loom Both for the Health of the Labor Market and Price Stability."
博斯蒂克表示,"国内外地缘政治的不确定性依然存在,并可能产生新的通胀压力。"他补充道,"积极的宏观经济发展趋势是否能持续并不确定。各种方面都存在不确定性,劳动力市场健康和价格稳定面临风险。"
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
(霍华德·施耐德报道;安德里亚·里奇编辑)
((Howard.schneider@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 789 8010;))
((霍华德.施奈德@汤森路透.com;+1 202 789 8010;))