Germany Economy to Shrink Berlin, Dec 19 (Reuters) - German Consumer Sentiment Is Expected to Improve Slightly at the Start of Next Year but at a Low Level as High Food and Energy Prices and Job Insecurity Weigh on Households, a Survey Showed on Thursday.
柏林，12月19日（路透社）- 周四的一项调查显示，尽管食品和能源价格高企以及工作不稳定对家庭造成压力，德国消费者信心预计在明年初略有改善，但仍处于低水平。
The Consumer Sentiment Index, Published by Gfk and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (Nim), Rose More Than Expected Going Into January, to -21.3 Points From a Slightly Upwardly Revised -23.1 Points the Month Before.
由Gfk和纽伦堡市场决策研究所（Nim）发布的消费者信心指数在进入1月时超出预期，从稍微上调的-23.1点上升至-21.3点。
Analysts Polled by Reuters Had Expected a Reading of -22.5.
路透社调查的分析师预计读数为-22.5。
Gfk Said the Improvement Only Partially Compensated for Previous Declines and Sentiment Remained at a Very Low Level With Stagnation Stretching Back to the Middle of the Year.
Gfk表示，改善仅部分抵消了之前的下滑，情绪仍处于非常低的水平，停滞状态可以追溯到年中。
"a Sustained Recovery in Consumer Sentiment Is Not yet in Sight, as Consumer Uncertainty Is Still Too High. the Main Reason Is High Food and Energy Prices," Said Nim Analyst Rolf Buerkl.
分析师Rolf Buerkl表示："消费者情绪的持续复苏尚未可见，因为消费者的不确定性仍然过高。主要原因是高昂的食品和能源价格。"
"in Addition, Concerns About Job Security Are Growing in Many Sectors," He Said.
"此外，许多行业对工作安全的担忧正在加剧，"他说。
Several Major Companies, Such as Volkswagen, Slash Production and Cut Costs, Raising Fears of Job Losses. the Ifo Institute's Monthly Survey Showed Business Morale Was Deteriorating More Than Expected This Month.
几家主要公司，如 大众汽车，削减生产并降低成本，提升了失业的恐惧。 Ifo 研究所的每月调查显示，本月的商业信心比预期的更为恶化。
A Snap Election in February Is Adding to Uncertainty for Europe's Biggest Economy Which Is on Track for a Second Consecutive Year of Contraction in 2024 and Is Trailing Its Euro Zone Partners.
二月份的快速选举增加了对欧洲最大经济体的不确定性，该经济体在2024年有可能连续第二年出现收缩，并且落后于其欧元区合作伙伴。
Jan 2025 |
Dec 2024 |
Nov 2024 |
|
Consumer Climate |
-21.3 |
-23.1 |
-18.4 |
Consumer Climate Components |
Dec 2024 |
Nov 2024 |
Dec 2023 |
- Willingness to Buy |
-5.4 |
-6.0 |
-8.8 |
- Income Expectations |
1.4 |
-3.5 |
-6.9 |
- Business Cycle Expectations |
0.3 |
-3.6 |
-0.4 |
2025年1月 |
2024年12月 |
2024年11月 |
|
消费者气候指数 |
-21.3 |
-23.1 |
-18.4 |
消费者气候元件 |
2024年12月 |
2024年11月 |
2023年12月 |
购买意愿 |
-5.4 |
-6.0 |
-8.8 |
- 收入预期 |
1.4 |
-3.5 |
-6.9 |
业务周期预期 |
0.3 |
-3.6 |
-0.4 |
Note - the Survey Period Was From Dec. 5 to Dec. 16, 2024.
注意 - 调查期为2024年12月5日至12月16日。
The Consumer Climate Indicator Forecasts the Progress of Real Private Consumption in the Following Month.
消费气候指数预测以下月份实际私人消费的增长。
An Indicator Reading Above Zero Signals Year-on-Year Growth in Private Consumption. a Value Below Zero Indicates a Drop Compared With the Same Period a Year Earlier.
指标读数高于零表示私营消费同比增长。低于零的值表示与上一年同期相比有所下降。
According to Gfk, a One-Point Change in the Indicator Corresponds to a Year-on-Year Change of 0.1% in Private Consumption.
根据Gfk，指标变动一个百分点对应私营消费同步变化0.1%。
The "Willingness to Buy" Indicator Represents the Balance Between Positive and Negative Responses to the Question: "Do You Think Now Is a Good Time to Buy Major Items?"
“购买意愿”指标代表对问题“现在购买大件物品是否是个好时机？”做出积极和消极回答的平衡。
The Income Expectations Sub-Index Reflects Expectations About the Development of Household Finances in the Coming 12 Months.
收入预期子指数反映了对未来12个月家庭财务状况的预期。
The Additional Business Cycle Expectations Index Reflects Respondents' Assessment of the General Economic Situation Over the Next 12 Months.
附加的业务周期预期指数反映了受访者对未来12个月经济总体情况的评估。
The Reuters Poll for the Gfk Consumer Sentiment Is From Dec. 18
路透社关于Gfk消费信心的调查结果来自12月18日。
(Reporting by Madeline Chambers, Editing by Kirsti Knolle)
（马德琳·钱伯斯报道，克尔斯蒂·诺尔编辑）
((Madeline.chambers@Thomsonreuters.com; +4930220133578;))
（（madeline.chambers@thomsonreuters.com; +4930220133578;））
