With Businesses Optimistic and Consumers Still Spending, Barkin Said He Felt the Job Market "Is More Likely to Break Toward Hiring Than Toward Firing."By Howard Schneider
作者：霍华德·施奈德
Baltimore, Jan 3 (Reuters) - The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2025 Is Positive With More Upside Than Downside Risk to Growth Despite Uncertainty About the Impact of Trade and Other Policies That May Be Pursued by the Incoming Trump Administration, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin Said on Friday.
巴尔的摩，1月3日（路透社） - 里士满联储主席托马斯·巴金周五表示，尽管对即将上任的特朗普政府可能采取的 交易 和其他政策的影响存在不确定性，但美国经济在2025年的前景是积极的，增长的上行风险大于下行风险。
"How Economic Policy Uncertainty Resolves Will Matter. but, With What We Know Today, I Expect More Upside Than Downside in Terms of Growth," Barkin Said in Comments to the Maryland Bankers Association, With Potentially "More Risk on the Inflation Side," if, for Example, Hiring Strengthens.
巴金在对马里兰银行家协会的讲话中表示：“经济政策不确定性如何解决至关重要。但根据我们今天所知，我预计收益方面的上行风险大于下行风险，”如果例如招聘情况增强，可能还会增加“通货膨胀方面的风险。”
With Businesses Optimistic and Consumers Still Spending, Barkin Said He Felt the Job Market "Is More Likely to Break Toward Hiring Than Toward Firing."
巴金表示，由于企业持乐观态度，消费者仍在消费，他认为就业市场“更可能朝着招聘而非裁员的方向发展。”
Financial Markets Also Seem to Be More Confident, With Less Uncertainty, an Alignment With a Fed Outlook for a Slower Pace of Interest Rate Cuts in the Coming Year, and an Acceptance That Long-Term Interest Rates "Are Unlikely to Come Down as Much as Some Might Have Hoped," Said Barkin, Who Will Not Be a Voter This Year on Fed Interest Rate Policy.
金融市场似乎也更加自信，存在的不确定性较小，与美联储对明年减息速度放缓的展望一致，同时接受长期 利率期货“可能不会像一些人所希望的那样大幅下降，”巴金说，他今年不会参与美联储的利率政策投票。
The Fed Cut Its Benchmark Policy Rate by a Quarter of a Percentage Point at Its December Meeting, and Lowered the Rate a Full Percentage Point Over Its Final Three Meetings of 2024.
美联储在12月的会议上将基准政策利率下调了四分之一个百分点，并在2024年的最后三次会议上总计下调了一个百分点。
But With Progress on Inflation Stalled and Doubts About How Trade, Tax and Immigration Policy Under Incoming President Donald Trump May Impact the Economy, Policymakers Also Projected the Benchmark Rate Would Fall Only Another Half Point This Year.
但由于通货膨胀的进展停滞，以及对即将上任的总统特朗普的 交易 、税收和移民政策如何影响经济的疑虑，决策者们还预测基准利率今年仅会再下降半个百分点。
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
（报道：霍华德·施耐德；编辑：安德烈亚·里奇）
((Howard.schneider@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 789 8010;))
（（霍华德.施耐德@汤森路透.com；+1 202 789 8010；））
