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Reuters ·  01/29 17:17

Repeats With No Changes (Originally Posted Jan 27

重复无更改(最初发布于1月27日

- With Markets Fully Priced for a Pause in Monetary Policy at the Upcoming Federal Reserve Decision, the Focus Will Be on the Accompanying Statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s Press Conference.

1月29日(路透社) - 随着市场完全价格化即将到来的美联储决策中的货币政策暂停,焦点将集中在随附声明和主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会上。

Commentary From Fed Officials Since December – Shown in the Table Below – Has Been One of Less Urgency to Cutting Rates Further, Thus Endorsing Chair Powell’s Message at the Prior Meeting.

自12月以来美联储官员的评论 - 如下表所示 - 表现出对进一步降息的紧迫性降低,从而支持了鲍威尔主席在上次会议上的信息。

The More Hawkish Members on the Committee Have Voiced Their Concerns Over the Rising Risk That the Disinflationary Process Has Stalled, Which in Turn Has Raised Questions Over the Restrictiveness of Current Policy.

委员会中的一些更鹰派成员对通货紧缩过程停滞的上升风险表示担忧,这也引发了对当前政策限制性的问题。

On the Flipside, the Closely Watched Fed Official, Christopher Waller, Who Is Often Thought as the Lead Indicator for the Direction of Travel That the Committee Is Heading, Has Been Somewhat More Dovish-Leaning.

另一方面,受到密切关注的美联储官员克里斯托弗·沃勒,常被视为委员会前进方向的领先指标,表现得相对更加温和。

The Rate-Setter Has Suggested That a March Cut Cannot Be Completely Ruled Out, Should Inflation Ease Further, While Also Indicating That the Door Is Open to Cutting Rates 3-4 Times This Year, More Than the Dot Plot Projection for Two 25BP Cuts.

这位决策者建议如果通胀进一步缓解,3月降息并非完全不可能,同时也表示今年降息3-4次的可能性存在,超过了点阵图对两次25个基点降息的预测。

On Balance, the Fed Is Likely to Reiterate Its Cautious Stance, Particularly in Light of the Backdrop of Potentially Significant Changes to U.S. Trade Policy Which Can Have a Knock-on Effect on the Monetary Side. However, Should Powell Offer a Sense of Optionality That a March Cut Cannot Be Ruled Out, This Would Likely Weigh on the Dollar, Given Markets Have Priced in 9Bps of Easing.

总体而言,美联储可能会重申其谨慎立场,特别是在美国贸易政策可能发生重大变化的背景下,这可能对货币政策产生连锁反应。然而,如果鲍威尔传达出3月降息并非不可能的信号,这可能会对美元产生压力,因为市场已价格化9个基点的放松。

For More Click on Fxbuz

欲了解更多,请点击 Fxbuz


(Justin Mcqueen Is a Reuters Market Analyst. the Views Expressed Are His Own.)

(贾斯汀·麦奎因是路透社的市场分析师。所表达的意见仅代表他本人。)

((Justin.mcqueen@Thomsonreuters.com))

((Justin.mcqueen@Thomsonreuters.com))

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