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Is Netflix a 'de-risked' stock with massive upside potential? This investor thinks so

Is Netflix a 'de-risked' stock with massive upside potential? This investor thinks so

Netflix是一只具有巨大上行潜力的“低风险”股票吗?这位投资者是这么认为的
Benzinga Real-time News ·  2022/04/22 09:30  · 观点

A lot of investors dumped $Netflix(NFLX.US)$ stock this week after the company reported a subscriber loss and guided for a continued decline.

很多投资者纷纷抛售$Netflix(NFLX.US)$本周,在该公司报告订户流失并引导继续下跌后,该公司股价下跌。

Ritholtz Wealth Management's Josh Brown took the other side of that trade as he sees a lot of upside opportunity in Netflix and not much downside.

Ritholtz财富管理公司乔希·布朗在这笔交易的另一边,他看到了Netflix的很多上行机会,但没有太多下行机会。

"I do think that the stock has been very much de-risked," Brown said Thursday on CNBC.

布朗周四在CNBC上表示:“我确实认为,该股的风险已经降低了很多。”

Netflix shares were trading around $700 in November, he noted. Although it probably didn't deserve to be trading that high, he doesn't think it should be trading as low as it is now.

他指出,去年11月,Netflix的股价约为700美元。尽管它可能不值得交易那么高,但他认为它不应该像现在这样低交易。

Assessing The Risk: Netflix is trading with roughly the same earnings multiple as $Walt Disney(DIS.US)$, he said: "I'm not suggesting Netflix should have a premium to Disney necessarily, but there are a lot of reasons that you can come up with for why it would and why it has historically."

评估风险:Netflix的市盈率与 $华特迪士尼(DIS.US)$他说:“我并不是说Netflix一定要比迪士尼有溢价,但你可以想出很多理由来解释为什么Netflix会有溢价,为什么它会有这样的溢价。”

The facts are that the stock is now trading at 20 times earnings with a $100 billion valuation. The company has 230 million subscribers and the next closest competitor (Disney) isn't even half the size in terms of subscriber base, he said.

事实是,该股目前的市盈率为20倍,估值为1000亿美元。他说,该公司拥有2.3亿订户,而紧随其后的竞争对手(迪士尼)的订户基数甚至不到一半。

The real question is how much risk is one taking buying the stock at current levels, versus the reward that shareholders will receive when things start to go wrong again. Brown doesn't think there is much risk involved in the low $200s, so he bought the stock and noted he has more capital ready to buy below $200 if it gets there and he decides he wants to add.

真正的问题是,与当情况再次出现问题时股东将获得的回报相比,在当前水平买入股票的人承担了多大的风险。布朗认为200美元以下的股票不会有太大风险,所以他买入了这只股票,并指出,如果200美元以下的股票达到200美元以下,他有更多的资金准备买入,他决定增加。

Potential Reward: This isn't the first time Netflix shares have been obliterated. The stock sold off on international expansion uncertainty, concerns over price increases and increased content spending, as well as on increasing competition, Brown said.

潜在回报:这并不是Netflix的股票第一次被抹去。布朗说,由于国际扩张的不确定性,对价格上涨和内容支出增加的担忧,以及日益激烈的竞争,该股遭到抛售。

Every time the stock has blown up, if you made the bet that they would eventually get things right, as a shareholder you were rewarded not just a little bit, like richly, richly rewarded. The stock went up thousands of percentage points.

-Brown said.

每次股价暴涨,如果你押注他们最终会把事情做好,作为股东,你得到的回报不只是一点点,就像丰厚的回报。该股上涨了数千个百分点。

-布朗说。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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