Morningstar: CN Plague May Peak in 6-8 Weeks; Consumption Sector Top-picks Baba, Yum China
Morningstar: CN Plague May Peak in 6-8 Weeks; Consumption Sector Top-picks Baba, Yum China
Lorraine Tan, Director of Equity Research in Asia for Morningstar, pinpointed the overdone market reaction to this round of epidemic in Mainland China, with quite a lot of Shanghai factories resuming production at the moment. Supply and logistics issues have relatively been alleviated as compared with the case in 2020, but U.S. rate hike and other adverse factors are still affecting investors.
As for the consumption sector, Morningstar predicted the peak of China's epidemic in six to eight weeks. This, coupled with persistent anti-Covid measures, may weaken the country's retail sales growth in the second quarter.
BABA-SW (09988.HK) and YUM CHINA-S (09987.HK) are among the sector top-picks. On one hand, macro improvement and a larger share buyback scale should be conducive to BABA-SW's 2H performance. On the other hand, YUM CHINA-S will be a long-term beneficiary of China's population structure changes, with huge upside room for fast-food penetration.
晨星亚洲股票研究的董事分析师Lorraine Tan指出，市场对中国大陆这轮疫情反应过度，目前上海不少工厂已恢复生产。与2020年相比，供应和物流问题已经相对缓解，但美国加息等不利因素仍在影响投资者。
至于消费领域，晨星预测中国疫情的高峰将在六到八周后出现。这一点，加上持续的防寒措施，可能会削弱该国第二季度的零售额增长。
阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)和百胜中国-S(09987.HK)是行业首选。一方面，宏观改善和更大的股份回购规模应该有利于阿里巴巴-SW的2H业绩。另一方面，百胜中国-S将成为中国人口结构变化的长期受益者，快餐渗透的上行空间巨大。