Deutsche Bank's first look at Li Auto's Q1 earnings
Deutsche Bank's first look at Li Auto's Q1 earnings
$Li Auto(LI.US)$ yesterday reported solid first-quarter revenue of RMB 9.56 billion ($1.51 billion), but guidance for the second quarter was somewhat soft.
$理想汽车-W(LI.US)$昨日公布的第一季度营收为95.6亿元人民币(合15.1亿美元)，表现稳健，但对第二季度的指引有些疲软。
$Li Auto-W(02015.HK)$ surges over 9% today.
$理想汽车-W-W(02015.HK)$今天涨幅超过9%。
$Deutsche Bank(DB.US)$ analyst Edison Yu's team then provided their first look. Here is what the team sent to investors on Monday:
$德意志银行(DB.US)$分析师Edison Yu的团队随后提供了他们的第一张照片。以下是该团队周一发给投资者的信息：
Li Auto reported solid 1Q results while 2Q guidance was somewhat soft given uncertainty around the COVID recovery cadence.
理想汽车-W报告了稳健的第一季度业绩，而考虑到围绕新城疫恢复节奏的不确定性，第二季度业绩指引略显疲软。
Deliveries were previously reported at 31,716 units, leading to revenue of 9.56bn RMB (vs. our 9.60bn forecast and consensus at 9.58bn).
此前公布的交付数量为31716部，营收为95.6亿元人民币(高于96.6亿元人民币的预期和95.8亿元的共识)。
Total gross margin of 22.6% came in above our 21.1% estimate (consensus at 21.3%), boosted by higher vehicle margin of 22.5% vs. our 21.0% forecast. Opex of 2,577m was roughly in-line with our/consensus expectations.
总毛利率为22.6%，高于我们21.1%的预期(普遍预期为21.3%)，这是由于车辆利润率22.5%高于我们预测的21.0%。运营支出为25.77亿欧元，大致符合我们/共识的预期。
All together, adjusted EPS of 0.47 came in materially above our 0.05 estimate due to higher other income and also benefitted from higher stock comp which is added back (nearly 200m higher).
总体而言，由于其他收入增加，调整后每股收益为0.47，大大高于我们的0.05预期，同时也受益于增加的股票薪酬(高出近2亿英镑)。
Free cash flow of 502m was materially stronger than anticipated despite higher capex, likely supported by robust working capital performance.
尽管资本支出较高，但5.02亿的自由现金流大幅强于预期，这可能是由强劲的营运资本表现支撑的。
Management provided somewhat soft guidance for 2Q22 calling for 21,000-24,000 deliveries vs. our 23,500 forecast at the midpoint. Management indicated production has continued to improve since early April but the supply chain remains under pressure. Revenue is expected to be 6.62-7.04bn vs. our 7.21bn forecast.
管理层对22季度的交货量提供了一些软性指引，预计交货量为21,000-24,000架，而我们的预测为23,500架。管理层表示，自4月初以来，生产继续改善，但供应链仍面临压力。营收预计为66.2亿至70.4亿，而不是我们预测的72.1亿。
For the full year, factoring in the impact of lost production volume from COVID, gross margin should still be at least flat YoY or better. R&D is targeted to be around 7bn RMB and SG&A as % of sales ought to be similar to 2021.
就全年而言，考虑到COVID产量损失的影响，毛利率至少应该与去年持平或更好。研发的目标是大约70亿元人民币，SG&A占销售额的比例应该与2021年相似。
The upcoming new L9 EREV full-size SUV should be unveiled toward end of this month of early June depending on COVID situation. Deliveries are still expected to occur in 3Q.
即将推出的新L9 EREV全尺寸SUV应该会在这个月的6月初推出，具体取决于COVID的情况。交付预计仍将在第三季度完成。