Don’t Buy Nvidia Until the Downtrend Turns
Don’t Buy Nvidia Until the Downtrend Turns
In short, investors have looked into the not too distant future and seen a hawkish Fed solving inflation by pushing the economy into a recession. Were that to happen, Nvidia's growth path would slow and demand a lower share price. Of course, as equities are wont to do, they aren't waiting around for the earnings decline to arrive before reacting. True to their discounting and forward-looking nature, stocks are sliding now.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
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- On Monday, Nvidia (NVDA) fell to a new low for 2022 as panic seized the stock market.
- Despite a secular growth story, semiconductors remain out of favor as bears roam the land.
- Recession fears are overshadowing the solid fundamentals of NVDA stock. Don't buy it until the trend changes.
- 周一，英维迪亚 (NVDA)跌至2022年的新低，股市陷入恐慌。
- 尽管有长期的增长故事，但由于熊在这片土地上漫步，半导体仍然不受欢迎。
- 对经济衰退的担忧使NVDA股票的稳健基本面黯然失色。在趋势改变之前，不要买它。
We're in a baby-and-bathwater market, where seemingly good companies with solid growth numbers are seeing their share prices swoon. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is a prime example of this. With Monday's market massacre, NVDA stock is officially 50% off its 52-week high.
我们正处于一个婴儿和洗澡水市场，在这个市场上，看似不错的公司拥有稳健的增长数据，但它们的股价却在暴跌。英维迪亚纳斯达克(Youku：NVDA)就是一个很好的例子。随着周一的市场大跌，NVDA的股票正式较52周高点下跌了50%。
The halving hasn't come as a result of poor management or a mass deterioration in the company's fundamentals. On the contrary, its February earnings report revealed a 53% revenue increase year-over-year (YOY), among other rosy metrics and upbeat forward guidance. Instead, Nvidia's woes are born from a broader shift in investor sentiment as high inflation and soaring interest rates have investors re-thinking stock market valuations.
这种减半并不是由于管理不善或公司基本面的大规模恶化造成的。相反，其2月份的收益报告显示，营收同比增长53%，以及其他乐观的指标和乐观的前瞻性指引。相反，NVIDIA的困境源于投资者情绪的更广泛转变，因为高通胀和飙升的利率促使投资者重新考虑股市估值。
In short, investors have looked into the not too distant future and seen a hawkish Fed solving inflation by pushing the economy into a recession. Were that to happen, Nvidia's growth path would slow and demand a lower share price. Of course, as equities are wont to do, they aren't waiting around for the earnings decline to arrive before reacting. True to their discounting and forward-looking nature, stocks are sliding now.
简而言之，投资者已经展望了不太遥远的未来，看到了鹰派美联储通过将经济推入衰退来解决通胀问题。如果发生这种情况，英伟达的增长道路将放缓，并要求更低的股价。当然，就像股市惯常做的那样，它们不会等到盈利下滑到来后才做出反应。与折扣性和前瞻性不谋而合的是，股市现在正在下滑。
Is Nvidia Stock Now Cheap?
NVIDIA的股票现在便宜吗？
The halving in NVDA stock has transpired while its earnings per share have continued marching higher. As a result, the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) has shrunk considerably.
NVDA股价减半的同时，其每股收益继续走高。因此，市盈率(P/E)大幅缩水。
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At its richest point, Nvidia's P/E ratio topped 100. Now, it's in the mid-40s. Fans will point to the steep discount as a reason to gobble up shares now while the flames of the fire sale are burning bright.
在最富有的时候，NVIDIA的市盈率超过了100倍。现在，它是45岁左右。粉丝们会指出，在贱卖的火焰正熊熊燃烧之际，大幅折扣是现在大举买入股票的理由。
On the one hand, they may be right. As economist Paul Samuelson joked, the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions. Sometimes stocks see a bogeyman that simply isn't there. Perhaps the pendulum of pessimism has swung too far. There's a chance the Federal Reserve won't over-tighten, will successfully get inflation under control, and will deliver the much-desired but all-too-rare soft landing.
一方面，他们可能是对的。正如经济学家保罗·萨缪尔森(Paul Samuelson)开玩笑说的那样，股市预测到了过去五次衰退中的九次。有时，股市会看到一个根本不存在的妖怪。或许悲观的钟摆摆得太远了。美联储有可能不会过度收紧货币政策，成功地控制住通胀，并实现人们梦寐以求的、但非常罕见的软着陆。
In that case, Nvidia is indeed a rousing buy here — as are most stocks, for that matter. Only time will tell. As for pinning your hopes on Nvidia's seemingly cheap valuation, remember it can get far cheaper before all is said and done.
在这种情况下，NVIDIA确实是一笔令人振奋的收购--就这一点而言，大多数股票也是如此。只有时间能证明。至于把希望寄托在NVIDIA看似便宜的估值上，请记住，在一切都说完和做完之前，它可能会变得更便宜。
That illustrates one of the critical problems with using a valuation metric to time your purchases. It's unwieldy and lacks precision. No doubt some investors scooped up NVDA stock when the P/E ratio sank from 100 to 70 or 60, reasoning it was "cheap enough." If you are interested in bottom fishing here, then let technical analysis be your guide. In the case of Nvidia, it simplifies the story considerably.
这说明了使用估值指标来计算购买时间的关键问题之一。它既笨重又缺乏精确度。毫无疑问，当市盈率从100跌至70或60倍时，一些投资者买入了NVDA的股票，理由是NVDA的股价“足够便宜”。如果你对这里的底层捕捞感兴趣，那么让技术分析成为你的指南。在NVIDIA的案例中，它大大简化了故事。
Let the NVDA Stock Chart Be Your Guide
让NVDA股票图表成为你的指南
If you want to buy shares with greater conviction, wait for evidence that the downtrend is turning. The weekly trend is below the 20-week and 50-week moving averages. The daily is following suit with prices below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages.
如果你想以更坚定的信念买入股票，那就等待下跌趋势正在逆转的证据。周线走势低于20周和50周移动均线。日报网紧随其后，价格跌破20日、50日和200日移动均线。
Given the multitude of broken support zones overhead, ample resistance threatens to halt future rallies. Breaking one of them will at least signal a short-term change in character. For now, I have my eye on $204.
鉴于头顶上有大量支撑区被打破，充足的阻力可能会阻止未来的反弹。打破其中一个至少会标志着短期内性格的改变。目前，我的目标是204美元。
The old pivot high needs to be breached before the daily trend turns higher. Beyond that, a push above the 50-day moving average would signal a more significant reversal is in place. Until then, patience is warranted. And if you must acquire Nvidia, do yourself a favor and at least buy partial shares so you can add more at lower prices in the likely event the downtrend persists.
在日线走势变得更高之前，旧的支点高点需要被突破。除此之外，突破50日移动均线将标志着更重大的逆转已经到位。在此之前，耐心是必要的。如果你必须收购NVIDIA，帮自己一个忙，至少购买部分股份，这样你就可以在下跌趋势持续的情况下以更低的价格增加更多股份。
On the date of publication, Tyler Craig did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
在本文发表之日，泰勒·克雷格并未(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。本文中表达的观点是作者的观点，受InvestorPlace.com发布指南的约束。
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在下跌趋势扭转之前，不要购买英伟达的帖子首先出现在InvestorPlace上。
