Options trading by individual investors is fading, the latest sign that the stock market's speculative fever has broken.
Those individual investors had embraced options as a way of riding the stock market's momentum that drove shares of companies from $Apple(AAPL.US)$ to $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ to new heights. Now, the Federal Reserve's move to raise interest rates to tame inflation has thrown that dynamic into reverse, sending the prices of stocks skidding.
Individual investors made up 26% of total options activity in March, down from nearly 30% early last year. That marked the lowest level since March 2020, though was still well above prepandemic levels, according to calculations by Bloomberg Intelligence's Larry Tabb, who analyzed figures from the 12 largest online brokers.
![20220516000138308135d8b6e75.png](https://uspost.futunn.com/20220516000138308135d8b6e75.png)
Meanwhile, their share of stock-trading activity hit a low of 10.7% in January, based on data from the largest brokers. Activity has ticked up slightly since then but remains below levels last year when it peaked at 21%.
![2022051600013831892a6815e4c.png](https://uspost.futunn.com/2022051600013831892a6815e4c.png)
A punishing stretch of volatility has prompted many individual investors to abandon a host of momentum trades such as blank-check companies known as SPACs, crypto plays like nonfungible tokens and unprofitable technology companies. The aversion to risk has rippled out through markets, dragging down the S&P 500 16% this year. Many pandemic-era darlings like $Netflix(NFLX.US)$ and $PayPal(PYPL.US)$ have fallen much further.
"There was a real herd behavior" last year, said Viraj Patel, a global macro strategist at Vanda Research in London. "It's really hard to pick who's going to be winning in this environment."
In the week ahead, investors will be parsing commentary from Federal Reserve speakers as well as data on the housing market and consumer spending for clues on the path of interest rates and the economy. The Fed has become the driving force in markets, with many investors fearing its quest to tame inflation will result in a recession.
In light of this, the share of bullish call-options trades by individual investors has plunged to the lowest level since April 2020, another sharp reversal since the onset of the pandemic. Investors had rushed to scoop up options tied to companies like electric-vehicle maker $NIO Inc(NIO.US)$ and $GameStop(GME.US)$ as a way to turbocharge their bets that the stocks would keep rising. Those trades have slipped in popularity as the stocks have fallen 55% and 34%, respectively, this year.
"Last year, I would be much more aggressive," said Steve Dez, a 30-year-old actor who travels between California and Puerto Rico, of his options trading. This year, "the momentum loses steam quicker."
Calls give investors the right, but not the obligation, to buy shares at specific prices by a stated date. Because options allow traders to put down a relatively small sum of cash for potentially huge returns if their bets are right, investors can use them to magnify gains. However, the options can expire worthless and investors can lose their initial investments.
"Across the industry, [retail] options volume has seen something of a pullback," said Shawn Cruz, head trade strategist at TD Ameritrade. "Retail clients are moving away from single-name equity options and into broader, macro-based options like [exchange-traded funds] and index options."
Individual investors have also been increasing their exposure to exchange-traded funds, according to data from Vanda Research. Funds tracking the $S&P 500 index(.SPX.US)$ and $NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US)$, alongside those offering turbocharged exposure to tech stocks, have been among the most popular. That helped purchases of ETFs by individual investors hit an eight-year high in early May.
Paul Soucy, a 65-year-old retired teacher in Cape Cod, said he has shifted from trading meme stocks like $AMC Entertainment(AMC.US)$ and SPACs to buying shares of consumer staples like snacks company $Mondelez International(MDLZ.US)$ and dividend-paying stocks that he thinks will perform well as inflation soars.
Mr. Soucy said he has been alarmed by some of the sharp post-earnings drops in individual stocks, making the market more unpredictable and tougher to trade options and shares.
"The market's been kind of crazy," Mr. Soucy said. "Some of the months I wasn't doing so well."
Of course, some of last year's strategies have retained their allure. Many individual investors have continued buying the dip in the stock market this year, fueling record amounts of purchases. Even meme stocks have come roaring back at times. And buying big tech stocks remains popular despite the volatility, according to Vanda Research.
One trade, in particular, shows no signs of abating. Options on $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ have remained the most popular among individual investors this year, Vanda Research estimates, just as they were last year. The company's shares have tumbled 27% this year.
Write to Gunjan Banerji at gunjan.banerji@wsj.com
个人投资者的期权交易正在消退,这是股市投机热潮已经消退的最新迹象。
这些个人投资者将期权视为利用股市势头的一种方式,股市势头推动公司股价从$苹果(AAPL.US)$至$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$达到新的高度。现在,美联储提高利率以抑制通胀的举措已经扭转了这一趋势,导致股票价格下滑。
3月份,个人投资者占期权交易总量的26%,低于去年年初的近30%。这是自2020年3月以来的最低水平,但根据彭博情报(Bloomberg Intelligence)的拉里·塔布(Larry Tabb)的计算,仍远高于普遍存在的水平。塔布分析了12家最大的在线经纪商的数据。
![20220516000138308135d8b6e75.png](https://uspost.futunn.com/20220516000138308135d8b6e75.png)
与此同时,根据最大券商的数据,它们在股票交易活动中的份额在1月份跌至10.7%的低点。自那以来,房地产活动略有回升,但仍低于去年21%的峰值水平。
![2022051600013831892a6815e4c.png](https://uspost.futunn.com/2022051600013831892a6815e4c.png)
剧烈的波动性促使许多个人投资者放弃了大量的动量交易,比如被称为SPAC的空白支票公司、不可替代令牌之类的加密游戏,以及无利可图的科技公司。对风险的厌恶情绪在市场中蔓延开来,拖累标准普尔500指数今年下跌了16%。许多大流行时代的宠儿,比如$Netflix(NFLX.US)$和$PayPal(PYPL.US)$都进一步下降了。
伦敦万达研究公司的全球宏观策略师维拉杰·帕特尔(Viraj Patel)表示,去年“出现了真正的羊群行为”。“在这种环境下,真的很难挑选出谁会赢。”
未来一周,投资者将分析美联储发言人的评论,以及房地产市场和消费者支出数据,以寻找利率和经济走势的线索。美联储已成为市场的驱动力,许多投资者担心,美联储抑制通胀的努力将导致经济衰退。
有鉴于此,个人投资者看涨看涨期权交易的份额已跌至2020年4月以来的最低水平,这是自疫情爆发以来的又一次急剧逆转。投资者争相抢购与电动汽车制造商等公司相关的期权$蔚来(NIO.US)$和$GameStop(GME.US)$作为一种加大对股市将继续上涨的押注的方式。随着这些股票今年分别下跌55%和34%,这些交易的受欢迎程度有所下降。
在谈到自己的期权交易时,30岁的史蒂夫·德兹(Steve Dez)谈到自己的期权交易时说,“去年,我会更加积极。”今年,“势头更快地失去了动力。”
看涨期权赋予投资者在规定日期前以特定价格购买股票的权利,但不是义务。由于期权允许交易员在押注正确的情况下投入相对较少的现金,以获得潜在的巨额回报,投资者可以利用期权放大收益。然而,期权到期后可能一文不值,投资者可能会失去他们的初始投资。
在整个行业中,[零售]期权成交量出现了某种程度的回落,“TD ameritrade首席交易策略师肖恩·克鲁兹表示。”零售客户正从单一名称的股票期权转向更广泛的、基于宏观的期权,如[交易所买卖基金]和指数期权。
万达研究的数据显示,个人投资者也一直在增加对交易所交易基金的敞口。跟踪基金的$标准普尔500指数(.SPX.US)$和$纳斯达克100指数(.NDX.US)$与那些提供科技股涡轮增压敞口的公司一样,它们一直是最受欢迎的公司之一。这帮助个人投资者在5月初购买了ETF,达到8年来的最高水平。
科德角 65 岁的退休教师保罗·苏西(Paul Soucy)表示,他已经从交易 $AMC Entertainment(AMC.US)$ 和 SPAC 等股票转向购买零食公司 $Mondelez International(MDLZ.US)$ 等消费必需品的股票和支付股息的股票。 他认为随着通货膨胀的飙升会表现良好。
苏西说,他对个股盈利后的一些大幅下跌感到震惊,这让市场变得更加不可预测,期权和股票的交易也变得更加困难。
“市场有点疯狂,”苏西说。“有几个月我做得不是很好。”
当然,去年的一些策略保留了它们的吸引力。许多个人投资者继续买入今年股市下跌的股票,推动了创纪录的买入规模。甚至连表情包库存也时不时地卷土重来。万达研究公司(Vanda Research)表示,尽管波动性较大,但购买大型科技股仍很受欢迎。
特别是一种贸易,没有减弱的迹象。万达研究公司估计,和去年一样,$Tesla(TSLA.US)$仍然是今年最受个人投资者欢迎的股票。该公司股价今年已暴跌27%。
写信给Gunjan Banerji,电子邮件:gan jan.banerji@wsj.com