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Five EV Stocks to Sell Before the Fed Kills Them

Five EV Stocks to Sell Before the Fed Kills Them

在美联储杀死五只电动汽车股票之前要卖出
InvestorPlace ·  2022/06/17 07:41

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Reports of electric van maker Electric Last Mile Solutions' (Nasdaq:ELMS) bankruptcy filing on Sunday flew under the market news radar.

关于电动货车制造商的报道电子最后一英里解决方案(纳斯达克:榆树)周日申请破产的消息没有引起市场的注意。

Electric Last Mile came public via a SPAC in 2021 amid a wave of other EV startups. At the time, it was pitched to investors as one of the best pure-plays on commercial fleet electrification. Today, it's headed for the graveyard.

2021年,在一波其他电动汽车初创企业的浪潮中,电动最后一英里通过SPAC上市。当时,它被投资者定位为商业机队电气化方面最好的纯游戏之一。今天,它正走向墓地。

To us, this story is a canary in the coal mine for EV stocks.

对我们来说,这个故事是一个煤矿里的金丝雀对于电动汽车股票。

While the EV industry is due for huge growth over the next decade, it's also due for major consolidation. There are simply too many EV makers out there today. And only about 5% of them will make it in the long run. The other 95% will go bankrupt.

尽管电动汽车行业将在未来十年实现巨大增长,但它也将进行重大整合。今天的电动汽车制造商实在太多了。从长远来看,他们中只有5%的人能成功。其余95%的公司将破产。

Electric Last Mile Solutions may be the first. It most certainly won't be the last.

电动最后一英里解决方案可能是第一个。这肯定不会是最后一次。

We always thought this consolidation would take several years to play out. But the Fed is accelerating that timeline. Its aggressive rate-hiking path is rapidly increasing the cost of capital in the U.S. economy. And that's making it largely impossible for a lot of these cash-burning EV startups to raise funds.

我们一直认为,这种整合需要几年时间才能完成。但美联储正在加快这一时间表。其激进的加息路径正在迅速增加美国经济中的资金成本。这使得许多这些烧钱的电动汽车初创公司基本上不可能筹集资金。

The result? Over the next 12 months, we expect to see a lot of these startups file for bankruptcy. And a lot of EV stocks will go to zero.

结果是什么呢?在接下来的12个月里,我们预计会看到很多这样的初创企业申请破产。许多电动汽车的库存将降至零。

At the same time, we anticipate this consolidation to help certain strong companies and send those high-quality EV stocks soaring!

与此同时,我们预计这一整合将帮助某些实力雄厚的公司和让那些高品质的电动汽车股大涨!

So… which ones are you holding in your portfolio right now — the ticking time bombs set to hit zero any day, or the next Teslas (Nasdaq:TSLA)?

所以…你现在的投资组合中有哪些呢?定时炸弹随时都会落到零,还是明天?特斯拉S(纳斯达克:特斯拉)?

The Great EV Industry Consolidation

电动汽车产业大整合

We're about to witness a great consolidation in the EV space over the next 12 months. Dozens of EV stocks will head to zero. And those that survive will end up soaring as they hog all the industry growth.

在接下来的12个月里,我们将见证电动汽车领域的一次巨大整合。数十家电动汽车公司的股票将跌至零。而那些幸存下来的公司最终将飙升,因为它们分享了所有行业的增长。

This thesis is rooted in historical precedent.

这一论断植根于历史先例。

Let's rewind to the dawn of the gas-powered car.

让我们回到汽油动力汽车的黎明。

Bicycle mechanics J. Frank and Charles Duryea of Springfield, Massachusetts designed the first successful American gasoline automobile in 1893. Six years later, in 1899, 30 American manufacturers collectively produced 2,500 of these cars.

1893年,马萨诸塞州斯普林菲尔德的自行车技师J.Frank和Charles Duryea设计了第一辆成功的美国汽油汽车。六年后,也就是1899年,30家美国制造商总共生产了2500辆这种汽车。

And that was just the beginning.

而这仅仅是个开始。

Over the next decade, some 485 companies entered the automobile manufacturing business. All were hoping to strike it rich as the gas-powered car redefined the world of transportation. It was a "gas-powered car boom" — much like the "electric vehicle boom" of today.

在接下来的十年里,一些人485家公司进入汽车制造行业。所有人都希望发财致富,因为这款汽油动力汽车重新定义了交通世界。那是一场“汽油动力汽车热潮”--很像今天的“电动汽车热潮”。

We all know what happened next.

我们都知道接下来发生了什么。

This innovation did go on to redefine the world. Today, around 70 million new passenger cars are sold every single year.

这一创新确实重新定义了世界。如今,每年大约售出7000万辆新乘用车。

But almost none of those 485 companies that popped up back in the early 1900s became a success story.

但几乎是在20世纪初涌现的485家公司中,有一家后来取得了成功。

Less than 50 of them were still in operation by 1930. And just three accounted for 80% of the market.

到1930年,仍在运营的不到50家。仅三家公司就占据了80%的市场份额。

Though gas-powered cars did take over, 9 of every 10 car companies that emerged didn't survive to see that success. And less than 1 in 100 turned into auto industry titans.

尽管汽油动力汽车确实占据了主导地位,但每10家新出现的汽车公司中,就有9家未能幸免于难。只有不到1/100的人成为了汽车业巨头。

The EV Revolution will play out similarly.

电动汽车革命也将以同样的方式上演。

Startups Will Shut Down

初创企业将被关闭

Today, there are hundreds of EV makers in the world, all hoping to strike it rich as EVs redefine transportation.

今天,世界上有数百家电动汽车制造商,都希望随着电动汽车重新定义交通运输而致富。

EVs will do just that over the next twenty years, just as gas-powered cars did in the early 1900s.

电动汽车将要在接下来的20年里,就会这样做,就像20世纪初汽油动力汽车所做的那样。

And similarly, the EV boom of the 2020s and '30s will see just a few top players that differentiate themselves in terms of major value-add, whether it be cost, design, performance, or branding. Those movers will attract all the consumer demand and reap all the rewards of the EV Revolution. And they'll squeeze out the other 90% of companies in the industry.

同样,在本世纪20年代和30年代的电动汽车热潮中,只会有几家顶级企业在主要附加值方面脱颖而出,无论是成本、设计、性能还是品牌。这些企业将吸引所有消费者需求,并从电动汽车革命中获得所有回报。它们将排挤行业中其他90%的公司。

So, when I look at the landscape today, I see a graveyard with a few shining stars.

所以,当我看着今天的风景时,我看到了有几颗闪闪发光的星星的墓地

The key to striking gold in this revolution, then, is to find those shining stars. And avoid the companies doomed for what will soon be a crowded EV graveyard.

因此,在这场革命中大获成功的关键是找到那些闪闪发光的明星。避开那些即将成为拥挤的电动汽车墓地的公司。

Five EV Stocks to Sell Now

现在出售五只电动汽车股票

I've long been expecting this industry consolidation. However, I've also thought it would happen gradually over the next five years.

我早就期待着这一行业整合。然而,我也认为这将在未来五年内逐步发生。

The Fed has changed the timeline here. Rates are on a rapid ascent, and the cost of capital is surging. It increasingly appears that industry consolidation will happen very quickly over the next 12 months. In that stretch, I expect dozens of EV stocks to plunge to zero.

美联储已经改变了这里的时间表。利率正在快速上升,资金成本也在飙升。越来越多的迹象表明,行业整合将在未来12个月内非常迅速地发生。在此期间,我预计数十只电动汽车股票将暴跌至零。

Among those I expect to fail are:

我预计失败的公司包括:

  1. Ayro (Nasdaq:AYRO): This tiny company making small, low-speed EVs for niche-use cases looks like all talk and no walk. It has just $44 million in cash on the balance sheet against a trailing 12-month burn rate of $30 million. So, it needs some big commercial wins soon to stave off bankruptcy. We doubt that will happen.
  2. Arcimoto (Nasdaq:FUV): I love the idea of tiny, 3-wheeled EVs. But I don't think this is the company that's going to execute that vision. And if they do, it will require so much more capital that shareholders will get diluted to near-zero. Arcimoto has just $5 million in cash on the balance sheet, and cash burn was $15 million last quarter. Ouch!
  3. Workhorse (Nasdaq:WKHS): Ever since this electric van maker lost the USPS contract — after first losing a UPS (NYSE:UPS) contract — we've been convinced that the tech platform here is pretty poor. Bad technology just won't cut it in the hypercompetitive electric van market. That's especially true with just $167 million in cash against a quarterly burn rate of $35 million. Not a great situation.
  4. Lordstown Motors (Nasdaq:RIDE): We were never convinced that this company – lacking talent and resources – would compete pound-for-pound making electric trucks with Tesla (market leader), Rivian (Nasdaq:RIVN) (backed by Amazon), and Ford (NYSE:F) (the legacy truck leader). Now the pressure is on. The company has just $300 million in cash on the balance sheet with a quarterly burn rate of $80 million. Bankruptcy looks very likely here.
  5. Romeo Power (NYSE:RMO): Once upon a time, Romeo looked like one of the most promising battery R&D startups in the EV industry. But the company has lost a lot of talent over the past two years. And when you're a startup, talent is everything. Without it, Romeo Power has lost its way and its technical edge. And given it's burning cash ($47 million burn last quarter) with limited resources ($67 million), bankruptcy is a real possibility.
  1. 艾罗(纳斯达克:艾罗):这家为小众用户生产小型低速电动汽车的小公司看起来只会说话,不会走路。它的资产负债表上只有4400万美元的现金,而过去12个月的烧损率为3000万美元。因此,它需要尽快取得一些重大的商业胜利,以避免破产。我们怀疑这种情况是否会发生。
  2. Arcimoto(纳斯达克:FUV):我喜欢微型三轮电动汽车的想法。但我不认为这是一家要实现这一愿景的公司。如果他们这样做了,它将需要如此多的资本,以至于股东将被稀释到接近于零的水平。Arcimoto的资产负债表上只有500万美元的现金,上个季度的现金消耗为1500万美元。唉哟!
  3. 主力马(纳斯达克:WKHS):自从这家电动面包车制造商失去了USPS合同-在第一次失去UPS(纽约证券交易所:UPS)合同-我们一直相信这里的技术平台相当差。在竞争异常激烈的电动面包车市场,糟糕的技术根本无法解决问题。在只有1.67亿美元现金的情况下,情况尤其如此,而季度烧录率为3500万美元。情况不是很好。
  4. 洛德斯敦 马达(纳斯达克:我们从来不相信这家缺乏人才和资源的公司会与特斯拉(市场领先者)竞争电动卡车。Rivian(纳斯达克:RIVN)(由亚马逊支持),以及福特(纽约证券交易所:F)(传统的卡车领导者)。现在压力来了。该公司的资产负债表上只有3亿美元的现金,季度烧失率为8000万美元。现在看来,破产的可能性很大。
  5. 罗密欧 电源(纽约证券交易所:RMO曾几何时,罗密欧看起来像是电动汽车行业最有前途的电池研发初创公司之一。但在过去的两年里,该公司失去了大量人才。当你是一家初创公司时,人才就是一切。没有它,罗密欧动力就失去了方向和技术优势。考虑到它在资源有限(6700万美元)的情况下烧钱(上个季度烧掉了4700万美元),破产是一种真实的可能性。

The Final Word on EV Stocks

关于电动汽车股票的最后一句话

A great consolidation is coming to the EV industry. That's bad news for low-quality EV stocks. They're doomed to fall to zero.

电动汽车行业即将迎来一场伟大的整合。这对低质量的电动汽车股票来说是个坏消息。他们注定要跌到零。

But it's also great news for high-quality EV stocks.

但对于高质量的电动汽车股票来说,这也是个好消息

Investor confidence will grow stronger as the industry purges all the unsubstantiated, all-hype startups. And the companies left after this elimination will have less competition and will likely grow faster, with better profit margins.

随着该行业清除所有未经证实的、完全是炒作的初创企业,投资者的信心将会增强。而这次淘汰后留下的公司将面临更少的竞争,可能会增长得更快,利润率更高。

The result? In the post-consolidation era, high-quality EV stocks will have bigger sales, bigger earnings, bigger multiples, and much higher prices.

结果是什么呢?在后整合时代,高质量的电动汽车股票将拥有更大的销售额、更高的收益、更高的市盈率和更高的价格。

The time to buy those future winners is now — before this consolidation pushes them higher!

买入这些未来的赢家的时机是现在-在这一整合将它们推高之前!

Find out which high-quality EV stocks are in our crosshairs. And get the name and ticker symbol of one penny EV battery stock that looks like a huge long-term champion.

找出哪些高质量的电动汽车股票是我们的目标。并获得一便士电动汽车电池股票的名称和股票代码,看起来像是一个巨大的长期冠军。

On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.

截至发稿之日,卢克·兰戈并未(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。

The post Five EV Stocks to Sell Before the Fed Kills Them appeared first on InvestorPlace.

在美联储扼杀电动汽车股票之前出售的五只电动汽车股票首先出现在InvestorPlace上。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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