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Why GameStop Stock Is Not Unsinkable

Why GameStop Stock Is Not Unsinkable

为什么GameStop股票不是不沉的
InvestorPlace ·  2022/06/18 18:21

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Inflation, interest rates and recession risk have knocked stocks lower again. Alongside stocks, the crypto and non-fungible token (NFT) markets have cratered, too. Yet this latest market meltdown has only had a moderate impact on $GameStop(GME.US)$ stock. What gives?

通胀、利率和衰退风险再次压低了股市。除了股市,加密和不可替代代币(NFT)市场也出现了崩盘。然而,最近的这场市场崩盘只对$GameStop(GME.US)$股票。什么给予?

The long side has seemingly regained the upper hand. They bid up the stock post-earnings, despite mixed results. This has squeezed the crowded short-side. As a result, the meme stock king, while knocked lower a bit by the June 13 and June 16 broad market sell-offs, has held onto most of its May relief rally gains.

做多的一方似乎重新占据了上风。尽管业绩喜忧参半,但他们在盈利后抬高了股价。这挤压了拥挤的空头。因此,尽管受到6月13日和6月16日大盘抛售的影响,米姆股票之王的股价略有下跌,但它保持了5月份的大部分释然性反弹涨幅。

Ticker Company Price GME GameStop $134.34

代码机 公司 价格GME游戏停止134.34美元

With this, you may think shares in the video game retailer are unsinkable. Although not anywhere near their meme stock highs, it could appear that it's at little risk of falling to a price more in line with its underlying value. However, you may not want to jump to that conclusion.

有了这一点,你可能会认为这家视频游戏零售商的股票是不会下沉的。虽然没有接近表情包股票的高点,但看起来它几乎没有风险跌到更符合其潜在价值的价格。然而,你可能不想一下子得出这个结论。

GME Stock and its Oddly Resilient Recent Performance

GME股票及其令人奇怪的弹性近期表现

Briefly falling down to double-digit prices during the May market selloff, since then GameStop has climbed back to prices north of $100 per share. It made its trek back to triple digits in late May, during that month's relief rally.

在5月份的市场抛售期间,GameStop的价格曾短暂跌至两位数,自那以来,GameStop的价格已回升至每股100美元以上。在5月底的救市反弹期间,该指数重回三位数。

Then, after its June 1 quarterly earnings release, GME stock rallied again. Again, this came despite what were arguably mixed results. Revenue for its fiscal first quarter (ending April 30), were up modestly (up 7.9% year-over-year), but its net loss more than doubled compared to the prior year's quarter.

然后,在6月1日发布季度收益后,GME股价再次上涨。再一次,尽管可以说结果喜忧参半,但这一结果还是出现了。该公司第一财季(截至4月30日)的营收小幅增长(同比增长7.9%),但净亏损比上一财季增加了一倍多。

The company also loaded up heavily on inventory during the quarter. This could be a risky move at this stage of the economic cycle. If the economy continues to slow down, or perhaps officially enters recession territory, decreased customer demand could leave the video game retailer in the same boat as general retailers like Target (NYSE:TGT).

该公司在本季度还大量增加了库存。在经济周期的这个阶段,这可能是一个有风险的举动。如果经济继续放缓,或者正式进入衰退区域,客户需求的下降可能会让这家视频游戏零售商与塔吉特(NYSE:TGT)等普通零售商处于同一条船上。

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Still, this didn't stop the longs, whether they be retail meme traders, or perhaps more sophisticated market participants, from pouncing on it post-earnings. While the aforementioned big down days for stocks softened the blow for the shorts, GameStop shares are still up from where they were before the earnings report.

尽管如此,这并没有阻止多头投资者,无论是散户模因交易者,还是更老练的市场参与者,在盈利后对其进行猛烈抨击。虽然前面提到的股市大跌缓解了做空的打击,但GameStop的股价仍高于财报公布前的水平。

Why This Resiliency May Not Last

为什么这种弹性可能不会持久

Based on its recent price performance, GME stock may seem immune from what bears (such as myself) believe is a much-needed de-rating. That is, as long as the long side continues to counter the short-side, the fact it trades for well-above its underlying value is irrelevant.

根据最近的价格表现,GME股票似乎不会受到看跌人士(比如我自己)认为亟需降级的影响。也就是说,只要多头继续对抗空头,它的交易价格远高于其潜在价值这一事实就无关紧要了。

Still, it may be premature to assume that this unconventional bull case for the stock is re-emerging. The days of it trading divorced from fundamentals may remain numbered. How so? Excitement from the long side could cool down, in two ways.

尽管如此,现在就认为该股的这种非常规牛市正在重新出现,可能还为时过早。脱离基本面的IT交易的日子可能仍然屈指可数。怎么会这样?多头的兴奋情绪可能会以两种方式降温。

First, some traders who dived into GME stock again as a squeeze play could decide to take profit. The fact that the recently overzealous short-side has backed off, as seen from the drop in short borrow rates after their early June spike, could also affect its squeeze appeal.

首先,一些再次大举买入GME股票的交易员可能会决定获利。从短期借款利率在6月初飙升后的下降可以看出,最近过于热心的空方已经后退,这一事实也可能影响其挤压吸引力。

Second, traders could have also piled into the stock ahead of its planned stock split. Shareholders approved the split at the June 2 shareholder meeting. Enthusiasm for this catalyst may peak, assuming management officially announces a split date. This latest round of "meme stock madness" for GameStop could fade. In turn, resulting in shares resuming their slide lower, as fundamentals come back into focus.

其次,交易员也可以在计划中的股票拆分之前大举买入该股。股东们在6月2日的股东大会上批准了拆分。如果管理层正式宣布分拆日期,对这一催化剂的热情可能会达到顶峰。最新一轮对GameStop的“表情包狂热”可能会消退。反过来,随着基本面重新成为关注的焦点,股价恢复下跌。

Bottom Line: Be Careful Chasing GameStop

一句话:追逐GameStop要小心

Admittedly, ahead of earnings, I made the wrong call on GameStop. Instead of a lackluster earnings report pushing it lower, shares are up in spite of poor operating performance. Yet while this may underscore the risk of shorting this stock, going long is a risky move too.

诚然,在盈利之前,我在GameStop上做出了错误的预测。尽管经营业绩不佳,但股价并未因低迷的盈利报告而走低,反而上涨了。然而,尽管这可能突显了做空这只股票的风险,但做多也是一种冒险之举。

Excitement about it could again turn on a dime. Perhaps pretty soon, if its squeeze and split appeal fades. Not only that, it's still hard to see the upside. That is, beyond the questionable chances of the "mother of all short-squeezes," playing out.

对它的兴奋可能会再次变得一钱不值。也许很快,如果它的挤压和分裂吸引力消退的话。不仅如此,它仍然很难看到上行的一面。也就是说,超出了“所有做空之母”发挥出来的可疑可能性。

Its transition into primarily an e-commerce company appears fully priced-in. By the time its NFT marketplace and wallet service launch, NFTs could have by then gone the way of the pet rock.

它转型为一家主要的电子商务公司似乎完全考虑到了这一点。到其NFT市场和钱包服务推出时,NFT可能已经像宠物岩石一样消失了。

With many stocks now on sale, focusing on long-term opportunities appears more ideal than rolling the dice on GME stock. Be careful if you choose to do so.

由于许多股票现在都在出售,关注长期机会似乎比在GME股票上掷骰子更理想。如果你选择这样做,一定要小心。

On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

在出版之日,托马斯·尼尔没有(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。本文中表达的观点是作者的观点,受InvestorPlace.com发布指南的约束。

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