UBS reduces ASX 200 year-end forecast on earnings downgrade cycle
UBS reduces ASX 200 year-end forecast on earnings downgrade cycle
Analysts at UBS have lowered their year-end $S&P/ASX 200(.XJO.AU)$ market target from 7700 to 7000 anticipating earnings are on a course to follow equity prices lower.
瑞银分析师下调了他们的年终预期$S&P/ASX 200(.XJO.AU)$市场目标从7700到7000期待随着股价走低，收益将走上正轨.
They now assume cuts to earning estimates through to early next year.
他们现在假设在明年初之前下调盈利预期。
The reduction implies a 5 per cent return from today's price of around 6740 and a 6 per cent drop for the calendar year.
这一降价意味着从目前6740左右的价格中获得5%的回报，并在本历年下降6%。
Top-down, markets have already largely adjusted to a more downbeat macro story: stocks have de-rated, in some cases considerably, whilst bonds now seem to be near their ceiling,
-UBS strategist Richard Schellbach said.
自上而下，市场在很大程度上已经适应了更为悲观的宏观故事：股票评级下降，在某些情况下降级幅度很大，而债券现在似乎接近天花板。
-瑞银策略师理查德·谢尔巴赫表示。
But with the baton now being passed onto earnings downgrades, equity prices will be forced to fight against a more negative bottom-up story.
但随着接力棒现在被传递到盈利下调上，股价将被迫与更负面的自下而上故事作斗争。
Analysts remain overweight on resource and consumer staple stocks. They've switched consumer discretionary to underweight given they "are not inclined to fight what looks like a vicious earnings downgrade cycle hitting the sector.
分析师仍增持资源和消费品类股。他们已将非必需消费品转为减持，因为他们“不倾向于对抗看起来像是打击该行业的恶性收益下调周期。”
