7 Stocks to Sell in a Bear Market
7 Stocks to Sell in a Bear Market
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There comes a point when investors need to recognize the realities of the equities sector, which is the central theme undergirding the below stocks to sell in a bear market. It's not about hating on particular companies. Indeed, many of these players offer intriguing business models. Unfortunately, the ground underneath us has changed, necessitating a shift in strategies.
总有一天,投资者需要认识到股票行业的现实,这是支撑以下股票在熊市中出售的中心主题。这不是关于对特定公司的憎恨。事实上,这些参与者中的许多人提供了耐人寻味的商业模式。不幸的是,我们的根基已经改变,需要改变战略。
Most notably, the impact of inflation has rippled throughout the entire economy. As the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar erodes rapidly, consumers have little choice but to hunker down as best as possible. For many households, this means reducing discretionary purchases to a minimum, while perhaps buying up essential, non-perishable products. Under this context, some equities will flourish and some will become stocks to sell.
最值得注意的是,通胀的影响已经波及整个经济。由于美元的购买力迅速下降,消费者别无选择,只能尽可能地低调行事。对于许多家庭来说,这意味着将可自由支配的购买量减少到最低限度,同时可能会购买基本的、不容易腐烂的产品。在这种背景下,一些股票将蓬勃发展,一些股票将成为可出售的股票。
Further, the erosion of purchasing power means that consumer sentiment is down in the dumps. In turn, fewer people will spend money unnecessarily, forcing several companies to cut their workforce. Such actions end up materializing a vicious cycle, which is another reason why folks need to get serious about stocks to sell in a bear market.
此外,购买力的下降意味着消费者情绪低落。反过来,更少的人会不必要地花钱,迫使几家公司裁员。这样的行为最终会形成恶性循环,这是人们需要认真对待股票才能在熊市中抛售的另一个原因。
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Here are seven stocks to sell in a bear market:
以下是在熊市中可以抛售的七只股票:
Stocks to Sell: Redfin (RDFN)
待售股票:Redfin(RDFN)
One of the most controversial subjects, the soaring housing market of the post-coronavirus period perfectly illustrated the difference between the haves and have-nots. On one end of the spectrum, homeowners were ecstatic at the sudden boost in equity. Of course, on the other end, an increasing number of prospective homebuyers were simply priced out of the market.
作为最具争议性的话题之一,后冠状病毒时期飙升的房地产市场完美地说明了富人和穷人之间的区别。在光谱的一端,房主们对资产价格的突然上涨欣喜若狂。当然,另一方面,越来越多的潜在购房者只是因为房价过高而被赶出了市场。
Now, with the Federal Reserve appearing committed to tackling inflation, an environment of rising interest rates doesn't augur well for Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN), a full-service real estate brokerage. It's interesting that throughout much of the new normal, Redfin executives were talking up a good game about robust housing demand. But oops, what did management do recently? Did someone say layoffs?
现在,随着美联储似乎致力于应对通胀,利率上升的环境对红鳍纳斯达克(Sequoia Capital:RDFN),提供全方位服务的房地产经纪公司。有趣的是,在新常态的大部分时间里,Redfin的高管都在谈论强劲的住房需求。但是,糟糕的是,管理层最近做了什么?是不是有人说要裁员?
I've gotten some criticism regarding the idea of choosing a company like Redfin as one of the stocks to sell in a bear market. Here's the reality: if housing-related businesses truly felt confident about the underlying sector, they wouldn't be handing pink slips to their employees.
关于选择像Redfin这样的公司作为熊市抛售股票之一的想法,我受到了一些批评。现实是这样的:如果房地产相关企业真的对基础行业有信心,他们就不会给员工发解雇通知单。
Take advantage of any near-term pops in RDFN. Overall, I'm staying out of this one.
利用RDFN的任何近期流行趋势。总体而言,我不会插手这件事。
KB Home (KBH)
KB Home(KBH)
If you listened to the mainstream media throughout the new normal, you might be tempted to think KB Home (NYSE:KBH), a homebuilding company, is one of the publicly traded securities to bank on. After all, how many times have we heard about the shortage of homes? With so much demand out there, KBH should be an easy winner.
如果你在整个新常态中都在听主流媒体的讲话,你可能会忍不住想KB主页(纽约证券交易所代码:KBH)是一家住宅建筑公司,是值得信赖的公开交易证券之一。毕竟,我们多少次听到过住房短缺的消息?在市场需求如此之大的情况下,KBH应该很容易成为赢家。
Except for one problem: there's a lot of "want" out there, not demand. Let's just assume that homebuilders — companies that have been in this business for decades — aren't stupid. If such a massive demand base existed, why wouldn't they max out their capacities?
除了一个问题:市场上有很多“想要”的东西,而不是需求。让我们假设住房建筑商--从事这一行业数十年的公司--并不愚蠢。如果存在如此庞大的需求基础,他们为什么不最大限度地发挥产能呢?
Aside from supply chain disruptions, the fundamental headwind is the wealth gap. When you consider the share of total net worth of the middle class versus the same metric for the top 1% of wealth holders, you'll notice that regular everyday folks are disastrously losing ground.
除了供应链中断,根本的逆风是贫富差距。当你考虑中产阶级总净资产的份额与最富有的1%财富持有者的相同指标时,你会注意到,普通民众正在灾难性地失去阵地。
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In other words, KB Home does not have enough clients to sell to because most wealth is now concentrated in the fewest hands. Thus, KBH is relevant, but not at its current premium.
换句话说,KB Home没有足够的客户可以销售,因为大多数财富现在集中在最少数人手中。因此,KBH是相关的,但不是以目前的溢价。
Stocks to Sell: Opendoor Technologies (OPEN)
待售股票:OpenDoor Technologies(Open)
Yes, I'm picking on real-estate-related companies because that's what I'm most bearish on at the moment. Even companies that supposedly deliver innovation to an age-old sector, like Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ:OPEN), are suspect.
是的,我挑的是房地产相关公司,因为这是我目前最看空的。即使是那些理应向一个历史悠久的行业提供创新的公司,比如OpenDoor技术(纳斯达克:开放),都是可疑的。
Opendoor specializes in iBuying, essentially leveraging digitalization protocols to add greater efficiency and convenience to real estate transactions. On paper, Opendoor sounds like the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of home buying. Personally, I see it as the Sears (OTCMKTS:SHLDQ) of home buying.
OpenDoor专门从事iBuying,本质上是利用数字化协议来提高房地产交易的效率和便利性。从理论上讲,OpenDoor听起来像是亚马逊(纳斯达克:AMZN)的购房。就我个人而言,我认为这是西尔斯(OTCMKTS:SHLDQ)购房。
Apparently, most people will own three homes in their lifetime, which I think is an elevated number. Nevertheless, three is a very small transactional number to impart conveniences on. And remember, imparting conveniences on inherently inconvenient matters costs money.
显然,大多数人在有生之年会拥有三套房子,我认为这是一个很高的数字。尽管如此,3是一个非常小的交易量数字,可以提供便利。记住,在本质上不方便的事情上提供便利是要花钱的。
Besides, since real estate is the most important purchase most families will make, rational buyers will eschew speed and convenience for better ensuring the right deal. That's why I believe OPEN is one of the stocks to sell. The business model might not make sense and certainly, the economic environment is bearish for real estate.
此外,由于房地产是大多数家庭最重要的购买,理性的买家会避开速度和便利,以更好地确保正确的交易。这就是为什么我认为Open是值得出售的股票之一。这种商业模式可能没有意义,当然,经济环境对房地产来说是悲观的。
Luminar Technologies (LAZR)
发光体技术公司(LAZR)
Luminar Technologies (NASDAQ:LAZR) was one of the top performers of the new normal. Specializing in lidar systems that will hopefully pave the way for fully autonomous vehicles, LAZR enjoyed a blistering debut following its reverse merger with a special purpose acquisition company.
鲁米纳技术公司纳斯达克(Sequoia Capital:LAZR)是新常态中表现最好的公司之一。LAZR专注于激光雷达系统,有望为全自动驾驶汽车铺平道路。在与一家特殊目的收购公司进行反向合并后,LAZR首次亮相时表现出色。
When the closing bell rang out on the Jun. 24 session, LAZR stock had lost 2.2%. For the year, it hemorrhaged over 58%. To be clear, Luminar is one of the most compelling leaders in the lidar space. It's just that in this economic ecosystem, it might not matter.
6月24日收盘钟声响起时,LAZR的股价已经下跌了2.2%。在这一年里,它的出血量超过了58%。需要明确的是,勒马尔是激光雷达领域最引人注目的领导者之一。只是在这个经济生态系统中,这可能无关紧要。
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For instance, quite a few people are still working from home, although that might change. Even so, those who are given an ultimatum by their employers could end up joining the gig economy. Additionally, companies can design their inhouse automated systems as underlying technologies decline in cost. Therefore, competitive pressures could stymie Luminar.
例如,相当多的人仍然在家工作,尽管这种情况可能会改变。即便如此,那些被雇主下了最后通牒的人最终可能会加入零工经济。此外,随着基础技术成本的下降,公司可以设计自己的内部自动化系统。因此,竞争压力可能会阻碍卢米纳的发展。
Stocks to Sell: RH (RH)
待售股票:RH(RH)
While the above stocks to sell might ruffle feathers if stakeholders are attached to these names, arguably, I should encounter little resistance with RH (NYSE:RH). Formerly known as Restoration Hardware, RH specializes in upscale home-furnishing products. Throughout much of the new normal, RH flourished as consumers who bought into the housing frenzy also spent big on quality furnishings.
虽然上述要出售的股票可能会激怒利益相关者,但可以说,我应该不会遇到什么阻力Rh(纽约证券交易所代码:RH)。RH前身为Restory Hardware,专门生产高档家居产品。在新常态的大部分时间里,RH蓬勃发展,因为购买了住房狂潮的消费者也在高质量的家具上花费了大量资金。
Looking back at the circumstances, however, RH was giving off an early warning signal in August of last year. Shares hit an all-time closing high and from there, a gradual erosion followed by a steep decline throughout the early days of 2022. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, RH stock has dropped by 50%, although there's evidence that the magnitude of selling is easing.
然而,回顾当时的情况,RH在去年8月发出了早期预警信号。股价创下历史收盘新高,从那时起,股价逐渐下跌,随后在2022年初大幅下跌。今年到目前为止,RH的股票已经下跌了50%,尽管有证据表明抛售的幅度正在放缓。
Does this mean there's a chance RH could make a comeback? Although anything is possible, if folks can't afford their furniture for their new homes, it suggests deeper underlying economic challenges. Also, without stimulus checks to bolster household budgets combined with a lack of homebuyers, RH stock seems questionable.
这是否意味着RH有可能卷土重来?尽管一切皆有可能,但如果人们买不起新家的家具,这意味着更深层次的潜在经济挑战。此外,在没有刺激措施来支撑家庭预算的情况下,再加上购房者的缺乏,RH的存量似乎有问题。
Signet Jewelers (SIG)
Signet珠宝商(SIG)
Perhaps most of you will recognize Signet Jewelers (NYSE:SIG) as an obvious candidate for stocks to sell in a bear market. The common image of an economic downturn is that of desperate folks selling anything of value to pawn shops. Under this context, households are not going to spend big on jewelry, which is the ultimate consumer discretionary item.
也许你们大多数人都会认出Signet珠宝商(纽约证券交易所股票代码:SIG)被认为是在熊市中抛售股票的明显候选者。经济低迷的常见形象是绝望的人们向典当行出售任何有价值的东西。在这种背景下,家庭不会在珠宝上花大价钱,因为珠宝是最终的消费者可自由支配的物品。
However, an even darker reason exists to explain why SIG may be one of the top stocks to sell in a bear market. Research from Bowling Green State University indicates that "Economic conditions are linked to marriage patterns—increases in the unemployment rate are associated with reduced odds of marriage."
然而,还有一个更黑暗的理由来解释为什么SIG可能是熊市中最值得出售的股票之一。鲍林格林州立大学的研究表明,“经济状况与婚姻模式有关--失业率的上升与结婚几率的降低有关。”
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If you have reduced odds of marriage if the economy enters a recession, you're logically going to see reductions of revenue at Signet Jewelers and its ilk. Otherwise, I don't have anything against Signet. It's just that investors should recognize the harsh realities of our present circumstances.
如果你在经济进入衰退时结婚的几率降低了,那么从逻辑上讲,你会看到Signet珠宝商及其同类公司的收入减少。否则,我对西格尼特没有任何意见。只是投资者应该认识到我们目前处境的严酷现实。
Stocks to Sell: Dillard's (DDS)
待售股票:Dillard‘s(DDS)
An upscale department store chain, Dillard's (NYSE:DDS) was a shocker of an investment this year. While its peers like Macy's (NYSE:M) suffered significant losses, Dillard's enjoyed relative success. After some choppy sessions, DDS stock is up nearly 4% YTD, which is not bad considering the major indices are down double digits over the same period. Still, I think luck will run out for Dillard's.
一家高档百货商店连锁店,Dillard‘s(纽约证券交易所代码:DDS)是今年令人震惊的一笔投资。而它的同行们则喜欢梅西百货(纽约证券交易所:M)遭受重大损失,而Dillard‘s则相对成功。在经历了几个震荡的交易日后,DDS的股价今年以来上涨了近4%,考虑到同期主要股指下跌了两位数,这一涨幅还不错。尽管如此,我认为迪拉德的运气将会耗尽。
Again, like many of the other stocks to sell in a bear market, I don't have anything against the company. It's just that we need to recognize broader realities. As the Wall Street Journal and other publications pointed out, consumer sentiment is at a record low. A few positive blips here and there aren't going to change the overall narrative.
再说一次,像其他许多在熊市中抛售的股票一样,我对这家公司没有任何不满。只是我们需要认识到更广泛的现实。作为《华尔街日报》等出版物指出,消费者信心处于创纪录低点。这里和那里的一些积极的信号都不会改变整个故事。
Essentially, you have the double whammy of the dollar losing its purchasing power and employers — particularly in the high-paying tech space — laying off their workers. To me, it's almost inevitable that demand for consumer discretionary items will fall, boding poorly for DDS stock.
从本质上说,这是美元失去购买力和雇主--尤其是在高薪科技领域--裁员的双重打击。在我看来,消费者对非必需消费品的需求几乎不可避免地会下降,这对DDS的库存来说是个坏兆头。
On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
在出版日期,乔什·恩诺本没有(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。本文表达的观点是作者的观点,以InvestorPlace.com为准出版指南.
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