CBA makes shocking 2.35% interest rate call: ‘Very significant’
CBA makes shocking 2.35% interest rate call: ‘Very significant’
"We have revised our central scenario for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). We had previously expected the RBA to take the cash rate to 2.10 per cent by November," Aird said.The $CommBank(CBA.AU)$ has revised its interest rate predictions, now expecting a 0.5 per cent hike in both August and September.
这个$CommBank(CBA.AU)$修正了利率预测，目前预计8月和9月都将加息0.5%。
CBA said it then expects a 0.25 per cent hike in November, which would take the official interest rate to 2.6 per cent by the end of the year.
CBA随后表示，预计11月份将加息0.25%，这将使官方利率在年底前升至2.6%。
CBA head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said the bank is then expecting rates to remain steady through the first half of next year, followed by a 0.5 per cent cut in the second half.
CBA澳大利亚经济主管Gareth Aird表示，该行预计明年上半年利率将保持稳定，下半年将降息0.5%。
"We have revised our central scenario for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). We had previously expected the RBA to take the cash rate to 2.10 per cent by November," Aird said.
Aird称：“我们修正了对澳洲央行的核心预估。我们之前预计澳洲央行将在11月前将现金利率调至2.10%。”
"But given the recent strength of the labour market data, coupled with a largely co-ordinated response of central banks globally to raise policy rates quickly, we have amended our profile."
“但鉴于近期劳动力市场数据强劲，再加上全球央行在很大程度上协调一致地迅速提高政策利率，我们修正了我们的形象。”
Aird said if the RBA were to follow this forecast it would be an "incredible pace of tightening".
Aird表示，如果澳大利亚央行遵循这一预测，那将是“令人难以置信的收紧步伐”。
"The starting point was a cash rate of just 0.10 per cent and household debt sits at a record high as a share of income," he said.
“起步点是现金利率仅为0.10%，家庭债务与收入之比处于创纪录高位，”他表示。
The impact on households with a mortgage will be very significant given the percentage change in the mortgage rate will be incredibly large."
考虑到抵押贷款利率的百分比变化将是令人难以置信的，这对有抵押贷款的家庭的影响将是非常重大的。
Aird said some households with a home loan will be protected, at least initially, if they are on a fixed rate - but that too will come to an end.
Aird表示，一些有住房贷款的家庭将受到保护，至少在一开始是固定利率的-但这种情况也会结束。
"The majority of home borrowers are on floating rate loans and the interest cost on their debt will go up very quickly," Aird said.
Aird表示：“大多数住房借款人都在使用浮动利率贷款，他们的债务利息成本将很快上升。”
"Our updated forecast profile is of course based on what we think the RBA will deliver and not what we believe the RBA should do."
“我们更新的预测资料当然是基于我们认为澳洲央行将提供什么，而不是我们认为澳洲央行应该做些什么。”
Mortgages rising
抵押贷款上升
Already mortgage holders are struggling to keep up with the pace of interest rate hikes.
抵押贷款持有者已经在努力跟上加息的步伐。
Analysis from RateCity.com.au found a borrower with a $500,000 mortgage in May, with 25 years remaining, had seen repayments rise by an estimated $333 in total across the three hikes we have already seen this year.
RateCity.com.au的分析发现，5月份还剩25年的50万美元抵押贷款的借款人，在我们今年已经看到的三次加息中，还款总额估计增加了333美元。
Someone with $1 million remaining on their loan has seen monthly repayments rise by around $665 a month.
一些还剩100万美元贷款的人，每月还款额增加了约665美元。
"The RBA's rapid-fire rate hikes have rattled consumer sentiment for months," RateCity research director Sally Tindall said.
董事研究机构RateCity的萨利·廷德尔表示：“几个月来，澳大利亚央行的快速加息已经扰乱了消费者情绪。”
"Part of this could be because homeowners have only just started paying extra on their mortgage as a result of the first hike back in May."
“部分原因可能是房主刚刚开始支付额外的抵押贷款，这是5月份第一次加息的结果。”
