Noel Gifts International Ltd (SGX:543) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 33% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 40% in the last year.
Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies in Singapore have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 11x, you may consider Noel Gifts International as a stock to avoid entirely with its 21.2x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Noel Gifts International over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for Noel Gifts International
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SGX:543 Price Based on Past Earnings July 18th 2022 We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent
trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our
free report on Noel Gifts International's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Noel Gifts International's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 26% decrease to the company's bottom line. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 35% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 8.0% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
In light of this, it's alarming that Noel Gifts International's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Final Word
Noel Gifts International's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Noel Gifts International revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 5 warning signs for Noel Gifts International (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of Noel Gifts International's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
诺尔礼品国际有限公司(新加坡证券交易所股票代码:543)股票在经历了一段不稳定的时期后,一个月的表现令人印象深刻,上涨了33%。再往前看一点,看到该公司股价在去年上涨了40%,这是令人鼓舞的。
随着股价的强劲反弹,鉴于新加坡近一半的公司的市盈率(或“市盈率”)低于11倍,您可能会考虑将Noel Gifts International作为一只股票,以避免其21.2倍的市盈率。然而,仅仅从表面上看待市盈率是不明智的,因为可能会有一个解释,为什么它如此之高。
举个例子,诺埃尔礼品国际公司的收入在过去一年里一直在恶化,这一点都不理想。一种可能性是,市盈率很高,因为投资者认为该公司在不久的将来仍将采取足够的措施来跑赢大盘。如果不是,那么现有股东可能会对股价的生存能力感到相当紧张。
查看我们对诺埃尔礼品国际公司的最新分析
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新加坡证券交易所:543价格基于过去的收益2022年7月18日我们没有分析师的预测,但您可以通过查看我们的
免费Noel Gifts International的收益、收入和现金流报告。
增长指标告诉我们关于高市盈率的哪些信息?
诺埃尔礼品国际公司的市盈率如此之高,唯一能让你真正放心的时候,就是该公司的增长势头明显好于市场的时候。
回顾过去一年,该公司的利润令人沮丧地下降了26%。因此,三年前的整体收益也下降了35%。因此,股东们会对中期盈利增长率感到悲观。
与预计未来12个月将实现8.0%增长的市场相比,根据最近的中期收益结果,该公司的下行势头令人警醒。
有鉴于此,诺埃尔礼品国际公司的市盈率高于其他大多数公司,这是令人担忧的。显然,该公司的许多投资者比最近的情况所显示的要乐观得多,不愿以任何价格抛售他们的股票。只有最大胆的人才会认为这些价格是可持续的,因为最近盈利趋势的延续最终可能会对股价造成沉重压力。
最后的结论
诺埃尔礼品国际公司的市盈率正在飙升,就像它的股票在上个月一样。有人认为,市盈率是衡量某些行业价值的次要指标,但它可以成为一个强大的商业信心指标。
我们对Noel Gifts International的调查显示,考虑到市场将会增长,该公司中期收益的缩水对其高市盈率的影响并不像我们预期的那样大。目前,我们对高市盈率越来越感到不安,因为这种盈利表现不太可能长期支持这种积极情绪。如果近期的中期盈利趋势持续下去,将使股东的投资面临重大风险,潜在投资者面临支付过高溢价的危险。
别忘了,可能还有其他风险。例如,我们已经确定诺埃尔礼品国际公司的5个警告标志(1是关于的)你应该知道。
如果你.不确定诺埃尔礼品国际公司的业务实力,为什么不探索我们的互动名单与坚实的业务基本面为其他一些公司,你可能有不及预期的期望。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。