Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000096) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Shenzhen Guangju Energy
The Method
We have to calculate the value of Shenzhen Guangju Energy slightly differently to other stocks because it is a oil and gas company. Instead of using free cash flows, which are hard to estimate and often not reported by analysts in this industry, dividends per share (DPS) payments are used. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.2%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 11%. Compared to the current share price of CN¥9.5, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)
= CN¥0.7 / (11% – 3.2%)
= CN¥9.1
SZSE:000096 Discounted Cash Flow August 10th 2022
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Shenzhen Guangju Energy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.550. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Shenzhen Guangju Energy, we've compiled three relevant factors you should further research:
- Risks: For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Shenzhen Guangju Energy (2 are a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我们将介绍一种估算深圳光聚能源股份有限公司(深圳证券交易所代码:000096)内在价值的方法,即将预期的未来现金流折现为现值。贴现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。这听起来可能很复杂,但实际上很简单!
对公司的估值可以有很多种方式,因此我们要指出,贴现现金流并不适用于每一种情况。任何有兴趣了解更多内在价值的人,都应该阅读一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对深圳光聚能源的最新分析
该方法
我们必须计算深圳光聚能源的价值,因为它是一家石油和天然气公司,与其他股票略有不同。它不使用自由现金流,而是使用每股股息(DPS)支付。自由现金流很难估计,该行业的分析师往往不会报告自由现金流。这往往低估了一只股票的价值,但与竞争对手相比,它仍然是好的。我们使用的是‘戈登增长模型’,该模型简单地假设股息支付将永远以可持续的增长率增长。预计股息的年增长率将相当于10年期政府债券收益率3.2%的5年平均水平。然后,我们以11%的股本成本将这个数字贴现到今天的价值中。与目前9.5元的股价相比,该公司在撰写本文时的公允价值附近。然而,估值是不精确的工具,更像是一台望远镜--移动几度,就会到达另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。
每股价值=预期每股股息/(折现率-永久增长率)
=CN元0.7元/(11%-3.2%)
=CN元9.1元
深圳证券交易所:000096贴现现金流2022年8月10日
重要假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将深圳光聚能源视为潜在股东,折现率使用股权成本,而不是计入债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了11%,这是基于杠杆率为1.550的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
接下来的步骤:
尽管一家公司的估值很重要,但它不应该是你在研究一家公司时唯一考虑的指标。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,它应该被视为“什么假设需要成立才能让这只股票被低估或高估”的指南。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股本成本或无风险利率大幅变化,产出可能看起来非常不同。对于深圳光聚能源,我们整理了三个相关因素,大家应该进一步研究:
- 风险:例如,我们已经确定了深圳光聚能源的4个警示标志(2)你应该意识到这一点。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
- 其他环保公司:关注环境,认为消费者会越来越多地购买环保产品?浏览我们的互动列表,这些公司正在考虑更绿色的未来,发现一些你可能没有想到的股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新其针对每只中国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。