While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company Limited (SZSE:200869) share price up 17% in a single quarter. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. In fact, the share price is down 35%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.
While the last five years has been tough for Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Looking back five years, both Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 12% per year. The share price decline of 8% per year isn't as bad as the EPS decline. So investors might expect EPS to bounce back -- or they may have previously foreseen the EPS decline.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
SZSE:200869 Earnings Per Share Growth August 10th 2022
Dive deeper into Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine, it has a TSR of -22% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 6.8% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 10.0%. Given the total loss of 4% per year over five years, it seems returns have deteriorated in the last twelve months. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine that you should be aware of.
Of course Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
虽然这对一些股东来说可能还不够,但我们认为看到烟台张裕先锋酒业有限公司(SZSE:200869)股价单季上涨17%。但在过去五年里,该股表现不佳。事实上,该公司股价下跌了35%,远低于购买指数基金所能获得的回报。
虽然过去五年对烟台张裕先锋葡萄酒的股东来说是艰难的,但过去一周显示出了希望的迹象。因此,让我们看看较长期的基本面,看看它们是否是负回报的驱动因素。
查看我们对烟台张裕先锋葡萄酒的最新分析
虽然市场是一种强大的定价机制,但股价反映的是投资者情绪,而不仅仅是潜在的企业表现。评估围绕一家公司的情绪变化的一个有缺陷但合理的方法是将每股收益(EPS)与股价进行比较。
回顾五年,烟台张裕先锋葡萄酒的股价和每股收益都出现了下降,后者以每年12%的速度下降。股价每年8%的跌幅并不像每股收益下跌那么糟糕。因此,投资者可能会预计每股收益会反弹--或者他们之前可能已经预见到了每股收益的下降。
该公司的每股收益(在一段时间内)如下图所示(点击查看具体数字)。
上交所:2022年8月10日每股收益增长200869
通过查看这张烟台张裕先锋葡萄酒的收益、收入和现金流的互动图表,更深入地了解烟台张裕先锋葡萄酒的关键指标。
那股息呢?
在考察投资回报时,重要的是要考虑到股东总回报(TSR)和股价回报。TSR是一种回报计算,计入了现金股息的价值(假设收到的任何股息都进行了再投资),以及任何贴现融资和剥离的计算价值。公平地说,TSR为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的图景。以烟台张裕先锋葡萄酒为例,过去5年的TSR为-22%。这超过了我们之前提到的它的股价回报。这在很大程度上是其股息支付的结果!
不同的视角
虽然亏损从来都不是好事,但烟台张裕先锋葡萄酒的股东们可以感到欣慰的是,包括股息在内,他们过去12个月6.8%的亏损没有市场亏损10.0%左右那么糟糕。考虑到过去五年每年4%的总亏损,过去12个月的回报率似乎有所下降。虽然一些投资者擅长买入那些陷入困境(但估值仍然被低估)的公司,但不要忘记巴菲特曾说过,扭亏为盈的情况很少出现转机。跟踪股价的长期表现总是很有趣的。但要更好地理解烟台张裕先锋葡萄酒,我们还需要考虑许多其他因素。例如,我们已经确定1个烟台张裕先锋酒警示标志这一点你应该知道。
当然了烟台张裕先锋葡萄酒可能不是最好的股票。所以你可能想看看这个免费成长型股票的集合。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在CN交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。