'Set Your Clock To It': 2022's Reliable Signal for When to Sell Stocks
'Set Your Clock To It': 2022's Reliable Signal for When to Sell Stocks
"It's getting to the point where you can set your clock to it," read a Tuesday report by Bespoke Investment Group.
Bespoke Investment Group周二发布的一份报告称：“现在已经到了可以设置时钟的时候了。”
What's the market analysis firm referring to? Selling stocks when the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury reaches 3%.
市场分析公司指的是什么？当10年期美国国债收益率达到3%时抛售股票。
And that's been the case this week. According to Bespoke, during 2022, every time the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields climb to 3% or above, the S&P 500 goes into bear mode for weeks in a row. The event occurred twice this year already.
本周的情况就是如此。根据Bespoke的数据，在2022年期间，每当10年期美国国债收益率攀升至3%或更高时，标准普尔500指数就会连续数周进入熊市模式。这一事件今年已经发生了两次。
Understanding Treasury Yield, Stock Prices Relationship: The U.S. government borrows money from investors in the form of Treasury bonds, which yield specific interest rates depending on the bond's time frame.
了解国债收益率和股价之间的关系：美国政府以国债的形式从投资者那里借钱，国债的具体利率取决于债券的时间框架。
Since the bonds can then be resold in the secondary market, the price of the bonds themselves changes according to supply and demand. If an investor buys a bond at a cheaper price than it was originally sold, the yield grows because the U.S. government still has to pay up the same yield rate at which the bond was originally sold to the first buyer.
由于债券随后可以在二级市场上转售，债券本身的价格会根据供求情况而变化。如果投资者以低于最初出售价格的价格购买债券，收益率会上升，因为美国政府仍然必须支付与债券最初出售给第一买家相同的收益率。
Why Are Investors Selling Bonds? The price of Treasury bonds is going down now (bringing yields up) because investors have been getting rid of bonds in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which begins Thursday, as reported by Insider.
为什么投资者要抛售债券？据Insider报道，美国国债价格现在正在下跌(收益率上升)，因为投资者一直在抛售债券，因为投资者预计美联储将于周四在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行年度研讨会。
On Friday, Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, is expected to give a speech addressing the Fed's strategies for taming inflation, which could include an even more aggressive raise to the federal funds rate, which is already at 2.5% and could hit 3% by the end of the year.
星期五，杰罗姆·鲍威尔预计美联储主席将发表演讲，阐述美联储抑制通胀的策略，其中可能包括更积极地上调联邦基金利率，目前联邦基金利率已经达到2.5%，到今年年底可能达到3%。
As interest rates go up, the value of bonds usually goes down, bringing up yields.
随着利率的上升，债券的价值通常会下降，从而提高收益率。
The $.SPX.US$ fell twice this year after the 10-year Treasury bond yield touched 3%. Once in May, when it dropped 5% in one week, and another in June, when it fell 9% in one week and then another 7% in the following month.
这个$.SPX.US$在10年期美国国债收益率触及3%后，今年曾两次下跌。一次是在5月份，一周内下跌了5%，另一次是在6月份，一周内下跌了9%，然后在接下来的一个月里又下跌了7%。
If Powell effectively announces higher interest rates for the rest of the year, the value of bonds will keep on dropping, driving up yields and thus causing other investors to sell their stocks in favor of bonds, bringing down the stock market as a consequence.
如果鲍威尔实际上宣布在今年剩余时间加息，债券价值将继续下降，推高收益率，从而导致其他投资者抛售股票，转而购买债券，从而拖累股市。