The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for MMG Limited (HKG:1208), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for MMG from its nine analysts is for revenues of US$3.7b in 2022 which, if met, would be a decent 13% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to crater 43% to US$0.023 in the same period. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.055 in 2022. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about MMG's prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

View our latest analysis for MMG

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 6.6% to US$0.38. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on MMG, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$5.00 and the most bearish at US$2.20 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting MMG's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 28% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.008% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.0% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect MMG to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.

A high debt burden combined with a downgrade of this magnitude always gives us some reason for concern, especially if these forecasts are just the first sign of a business downturn. To see more of our financial analysis, you can click through to our free platform to learn more about its balance sheet and specific concerns we've identified.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.