Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 17% in the last quarter. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 30%, less than the market return of 71%.
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
See our latest analysis for Valvoline
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During five years of share price growth, Valvoline achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 13% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 5% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 11.67.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
NYSE:VVV Earnings Per Share Growth September 3rd 2022
We know that Valvoline has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Valvoline, it has a TSR of 42% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While it's certainly disappointing to see that Valvoline shares lost 5.3% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 18%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 7% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Valvoline is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are significant...
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Valvoline Inc.(纽约证券交易所股票代码:VVV)的股东在看到股价在上个季度下跌了17%后可能会感到担忧。从好的方面来看,该公司股价在过去五年里有所上涨。然而,我们并不是很印象深刻,因为股价只上涨了30%,低于71%的市场回报率。
因此,让我们来调查一下,看看该公司的长期表现是否与基础业务的发展一致。
查看我们对Valvoline的最新分析
本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的原话是:短期内,市场是一台投票机,但从长远来看,它是一台称重机。考察市场情绪如何随时间变化的一种方法是观察一家公司的股价和每股收益(EPS)之间的相互作用。
在股价增长的五年中,Valvoline实现了每股复合收益(EPS)每年13%的增长。这一每股收益增长高于股价年均5%的涨幅。因此,这些天市场对该股的热情似乎不那么高。这种谨慎的情绪反映在其11.67的(相当低的)市盈率上。
您可以在下图中看到EPS是如何随着时间的推移而变化的(单击图表可查看精确值)。
纽约证券交易所:VVV每股收益增长2022年9月3日
我们知道Valvoline最近提高了利润,但它会增加收入吗?你可以看看这个免费显示分析师收入预测的报告。
那股息呢?
在考察投资回报时,重要的是要考虑到股东总回报(TSR)和股价回报。TSR包括任何剥离或贴现融资的价值,以及任何股息,基于股息再投资的假设。可以说,TSR更全面地描绘了一只股票产生的回报。就Valvoline而言,它在过去5年的TSR为42%。这超过了我们之前提到的它的股价回报。该公司支付的股息因此提振了总计股东回报。
不同的视角
虽然看到Valvoline的股价全年下跌5.3%当然令人失望,但这并不像市场下跌18%那么糟糕。当然,长期回报要重要得多,好消息是,在过去的五年里,该股的年回报率为7%。在最好的情况下,去年只是通向更光明未来的旅途中的一个暂时的转折点。虽然值得考虑市场状况对股价可能产生的不同影响,但还有其他更重要的因素。即便如此,请注意Valvoline正在展示我们的投资分析中的4个警告信号,其中两个是重要的……
当然了,如果你把目光投向别处,你可能会发现这是一笔很棒的投资。所以让我们来看看这个免费我们预计收益将会增长的公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。