In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Bestsun Energy Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600681) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for Bestsun Energy
What's The Estimated Valuation?
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥399.1m | CN¥342.4m | CN¥311.7m | CN¥295.2m | CN¥287.1m | CN¥284.3m | CN¥285.2m | CN¥288.6m | CN¥293.8m | CN¥300.4m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ -21.68% | Est @ -14.2% | Est @ -8.97% | Est @ -5.31% | Est @ -2.74% | Est @ -0.95% | Est @ 0.31% | Est @ 1.19% | Est @ 1.8% | Est @ 2.23% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2% | CN¥372 | CN¥298 | CN¥253 | CN¥224 | CN¥203 | CN¥187 | CN¥175 | CN¥166 | CN¥157 | CN¥150 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥2.2b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥300m× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (7.2%– 3.2%) = CN¥7.8b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥7.8b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)10= CN¥3.9b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥6.1b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥4.7, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SHSE:600681 Discounted Cash Flow September 12th 2022
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Bestsun Energy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Bestsun Energy, we've compiled three important elements you should further research:
- Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Bestsun Energy .
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SHSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
在这篇文章中,我们将通过估计公司未来的现金流并将其贴现到现值,来估计贝斯特森能源有限公司(上海证券交易所代码:600681)的内在价值。实现这一点的一种方法是使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。信不信由你,遵循它并不太难,正如您将从我们的示例中看到的那样!
我们要提醒的是,对一家公司进行估值的方法有很多种,与贴现现金流一样,每种方法在某些情况下都有优缺点。任何有兴趣了解更多内在价值的人,都应该阅读一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对贝斯特太阳能源的最新分析
估计的估价是多少?
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。由于没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们根据公司最近报告的价值推断出了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来的一美元不如现在的一美元有价值,因此这些未来现金流的总和就会贴现到今天的价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN元3.991亿元 | 净额3.424亿元 | 净额3.117亿元 | CN元2.952亿元 | 净额2.871亿元 | 净额2.843亿元 | 净额2.852亿元 | 净额2.886亿元 | 净额2.938亿元 | CN元3.004亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | Est@-21.68% | Est@-14.2% | Est@-8.97% | Est@-5.31% | Est@-2.74% | Est@-0.95% | Est@0.31% | Est@1.19% | EST@1.8% | Est@2.23% |
现值(CN元,百万)贴现@7.2% | CN元372元 | CN元298元 | CN元253元 | CN元224元 | CN元203元 | CN元187元 | CN元175元 | CN元166元 | CN元157元 | CN元150元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN人民币22亿元
在计算了最初10年内未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终止值,它考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率3.2%的5年平均水平。我们以7.2%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元300M×(1+3.2%)?(7.2%-3.2%)=CN元7.8b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元78亿?(1+7.2%)10=CN人民币39亿元
那么,总价值或权益价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流为人民币61亿元。为了得到每股内在价值,我们将其除以总流通股数量。与目前4.7元的股价相比,该公司在撰写本文时似乎接近公允价值。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
上海证交所:600681贴现现金流2022年9月12日
重要假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。投资的一部分是你自己对一家公司未来业绩的评估,所以你自己试一试计算,检查你自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将Bestsun Energy视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了7.2%,这是基于杠杆率为0.800的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
下一步:
虽然重要的是,在研究一家公司时,DCF计算不应该是唯一的衡量标准。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,贴现现金流模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。例如,如果终端价值增长率稍有调整,可能会极大地改变整体结果。对于贝斯特森能源,我们汇编了三个你应该进一步研究的重要元素:
- 风险:为此,您应该意识到2个警告标志我们发现了贝斯特森能源公司。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
- 其他顶级分析师选择:有兴趣看看分析师们在想什么吗?看看我们的交互式分析师首选股票列表,看看他们认为哪些股票可能具有诱人的未来前景!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用每天对上交所的每只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。