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The Fed's Preferred Inflation Number Is Coming Today. What to Watch

The Fed's Preferred Inflation Number Is Coming Today. What to Watch

美联储偏爱的通胀数据将于今日出炉。看什么?
Benzinga Real-time News ·  2022/09/30 04:52  · 前瞻

An important inflation reading for the Federal Reserve is coming today, with the Bureau of Economic Analysis set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data for August.

美联储的一项重要通胀读数将于今天公布,美国经济分析局将公布8月份的个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数数据。

What To Know: The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. It's released on a monthly basis and shows changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the U.S.

要知道的内容:PCE价格指数是美联储首选的通胀指标。它每月发布一次,显示美国消费者购买的商品和服务的价格变化。

The core PCE data from July, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased to $23.7 billion, representing an increase of 0.1% month-over-month. The number came in below average economist estimates for a 0.3% jump.

7月份剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心PCE数据增至237亿美元,环比增长0.1%。这一数字低于经济学家预计的0.3%的平均增幅。

The July PCE inflation reading showed a 6.3% increase year-over-year, while core PCE inflation was up 4.6%. Economists are anticipating a 6.1% increase in PCE inflation in August and a 4.7% increase with food and energy prices removed.

7月份的PCE通胀读数显示,同比增长6.3%,而核心PCE通胀上涨4.6%。经济学家预计8月份PCE通胀率将上涨6.1%,剔除食品和能源价格后将上涨4.7%。

The Federal Reserve will be paying close attention to the core PCE number as most economists expect the slide in crude oil prices last month to limit a potential increase in the headline inflation number.

美联储将密切关注核心PCE数据,因为多数经济学家预计,上月原油价格的下滑将限制整体通胀数据的潜在增长。

Why It Matters: The $S&P 500 index (.SPX.US)$ traded lower after the government released its third GDP estimate on Thursday, which included a PCE inflation reading for the second quarter.

为什么这很重要:这个$标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$在政府周四发布第三次GDP估计后,股市走低,其中包括第二季度的PCE通胀读数。

The Commerce Department said the PCE index increased 7.3% year-over-year last quarter, which is up from previous second-quarter estimates showing a reading of 7.1%. The second-quarter inflation reading was still slightly lower than the 7.5% reading in the first quarter.

美国商务部说,上季度PCE指数同比增长7.3%,高于此前估计的第二季度7.1%的读数。第二季度的通胀读数仍略低于第一季度的7.5%。

Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.7% in the second quarter, which is up 0.3% from the previous two estimates, but down from the 5.6% increase in the first quarter.

扣除食品和能源的PCE物价指数第二季上升4.7%,较前两次预估上升0.3%,但低于第一季5.6%的升幅。

Gross domestic product dropped at an unrevised annual rate of 0.6% last quarter, marking the second straight quarter of negative GDP. Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline is often viewed as a recession indicator.

上季度国内生产总值(GDP)未经修正的年率为下降0.6%,标志着GDP连续第二个季度出现负增长。GDP连续两个季度下滑通常被视为衰退指标。

Last week, the Fed raised its benchmark rate by 0.75% for the third straight time and indicated that it will continue to hike rates to fight runaway inflation in what has been the most aggressive tightening cycle in more than 40 years.

上周,美联储连续第三次将基准利率上调0.75%,并表示将继续加息,以对抗失控的通胀。这是40多年来最激进的紧缩周期。

Following last week's increase, the Fed has raised rates by a total of 3% in 2022, and its target fed funds rate is at the highest levels seen since before the 2008 financial crisis.

继上周的加息之后,美联储在2022年总共加息了3%,其目标联邦基金利率处于2008年金融危机之前以来的最高水平。

In a press conference following the decision on rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation back down to its 2% goal.

在利率决定后的新闻发布会上,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申央行致力于将通胀率降至2%的目标。

"Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. We will keep at it until we're confident the job is done," Powell said.

鲍威尔说:“恢复物价稳定对于为实现最大限度的就业和长期稳定的物价奠定基础至关重要。我们将继续努力,直到我们有信心完成这项工作。”

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the PCE price index numbers for August at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

经济分析局将于以下时间公布8月份PCE物价指数上午8:30。东部时间星期五。

Price Action: The S&P 500 index futures were up 1% Friday ahead of the open, according to Benzinga Pro.

价格行动:根据Benzinga Pro的数据,标准普尔500指数期货上周五开盘前上涨了1%。

Photo: Thomas Breher from Pixabay.

图片来源:来自Pixabay的托马斯·布雷赫。

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