Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. For example, the Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited (HKG:3868) share price is down 47% in the last year. That falls noticeably short of the market decline of around 26%. Longer term investors have fared much better, since the share price is up 17% in three years. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 39% in the last three months. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 19% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.
With the stock having lost 8.0% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
Check out our latest analysis for Xinyi Energy Holdings
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Xinyi Energy Holdings share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 9.9%. Of course, the situation might betray previous over-optimism about growth.
It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. So it's well worth checking out some other metrics, too.
Xinyi Energy Holdings' dividend seems healthy to us, so we doubt that the yield is a concern for the market. From what we can see, revenue is pretty flat, so that doesn't really explain the share price drop. Unless, of course, the market was expecting a revenue uptick.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
SEHK:3868 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 3rd 2022
Xinyi Energy Holdings is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for Xinyi Energy Holdings in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Xinyi Energy Holdings the TSR over the last 1 year was -44%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Xinyi Energy Holdings shareholders are down 44% for the year (even including dividends), falling short of the market return. The market shed around 26%, no doubt weighing on the stock price. Investors are up over three years, booking 10% per year, much better than the more recent returns. The recent sell-off could be an opportunity if the business remains sound, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long-term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Xinyi Energy Holdings has 2 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.
We will like Xinyi Energy Holdings better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
投资者通过购买指数基金可以近似市场平均收益。虽然个别股票可能会成为大赢家,但更多的股票则不能产生出令人满意的回报。例如,信义能源控股有限公司(HKG:3868)的股价在过去一年下跌了47%。这显然低于市场大约26%的下跌。长期投资者的表现要好得多,股价在三年内上涨了17%。这些跌幅最近加剧,股价在过去三个月下跌了39%。当然,这种股价走势可能会受到整个期间市场下跌19%的影响。
由于股票在过去的一周内下跌了8.0%,因此值得关注业务表现,看看是否有任何红旗。
查看我们对信义能源控股最新的分析
在他的文章《格雷厄姆和多德斯维尔超级投资者》中,沃伦·巴菲特描述了股票价格并不总是反映公司价值的合理方式。考虑市场对公司的看法如何发生变化的一个不完美但简单的方法是将每股收益(EPS)的变化与股价的变动进行比较。股票价格并不总是反映公司价值的合理方式在股价上涨的5年中,新加坡交易所由亏损逐渐转为盈利。而在之后的12个月内,该公司的财务报表则呈亏损状态,这表明它的盈利能力不可靠。其他指标可能会更好地反映公司的价值变化。
在信义能源控股股价下跌的不幸的十二个月中,其每股收益(EPS)实际上提高了9.9%。当然,这种情况可能会反映先前对增长的过分乐观。
公允地说,股价似乎并未反映出每股收益的增长。因此,值得检查一些其他指标。
我们认为信义能源控股的股息很健康,因此我们怀疑市场对收益率是否有所担忧。从我们所看到的,收入基本持平,因此这并不能真正解释股价下跌。除非市场原本预期收入会增长。
你可以在下面的图片中看到收入和营业收入随时间的变化情况(单击图表可查看精确值)。
SEHK:3868利润和营业收入增长2022年10月3日
信义能源控股是一个知名的股票,有很多分析覆盖,表明对未来增长有一定的可见性。您可以在未来利润预估的交互式图表中查看分析师对信义能源控股的预测。
那么分红怎么样呢?
除了衡量股价回报率之外,投资者还应该考虑总股东回报率(TSR)。TSR包括任何分拆或折价增资的价值,以及任何股息,假设这些股息被重新投资。因此,对于支付慷慨股息的公司,TSR通常比股价回报率高得多。我们注意到,信义能源控股在过去1年的TSR为-44%,比上面提到的股价回报率要好。当然,股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种差异!
不同的观点
信义能源控股的股东在一年中下跌了44%(包括股息),不及市场回报。市场下跌了约26%,无疑对股价产生了压力。投资者在三年内获利10%,比最近的回报要好得多。如果业务保持健康,最近的抛售可能是一个机会,因此检查长期增长趋势的基本数据可能是值得的。当然,考虑股票价格所受到的不同市场条件的影响是非常值得的,但有其他更重要的因素。例如,承担风险 - 我们认为信义能源控股有2个警告标志(1个不能忽略),我们认为您应该知道。
如果我们看到一些大规模内部买入,我们将更喜欢信义能源控股。在等待期间,请查看这个曾经有内部人员大规模购买的增长公司的免费列表。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映当前在香港交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。