We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But along the way some stocks are going to perform badly. For example the Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Limited (HKG:563) share price dropped 71% over five years. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 26% in the last three months. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 16% in the same period.
After losing 17% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
See our latest analysis for Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
While the share price declined over five years, Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 4.2% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the the market had expectations of much higher growth, five years ago. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.
We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. It's not immediately clear to us why the stock price is down but further research might provide some answers.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
SEHK:563 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 7th 2022
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group, it has a TSR of -63% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 17% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 24%. What is more upsetting is the 10% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. This sort of share price action isn't particularly encouraging, but at least the losses are slowing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group (1 is significant) that you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
我们认为，明智的长期投资是一条可行的道路。但在此过程中，一些股票的表现将很糟糕。例如，上海工业城市发展集团有限公司(HKG：563)股价在五年内下跌了71%。至少可以说，这是非常不理想的。股价最近加速下跌，在过去三个月里下跌了26%。但这可能与疲软的市场有关，同期市场下跌了16%。
在过去一周下跌17%之后，有必要调查一下该公司的基本面，看看我们可以从过去的表现中推断出什么。
查看我们对上海工业城市发展集团的最新分析
用巴菲特的话说，“船只将在世界各地航行，但平坦的地球协会将蓬勃发展。市场上的价格和价值之间将继续存在巨大的差异……”一种不完美但简单的方法来考虑市场对一家公司的看法是如何改变的，那就是将每股收益(EPS)的变化与股价走势进行比较。
尽管股价在五年内下跌，但上海工业城市发展集团实际上成功地增加每股收益平均每年增长4.2%。因此，每股收益似乎并不能很好地指导人们理解市场对股票的估值。或者，增长预期在过去可能是不合理的。
通过浏览这些数字，我们可以假设，五年前，市场曾预期会有更高的增长。看看其他指标可能更好地解释了股价的变化。
我们注意到，股息一直保持健康，因此这并不能真正解释股价下跌的原因。我们目前还不清楚为什么股价会下跌，但进一步的研究可能会提供一些答案。
下图显示了收益和收入随时间的变化情况(如果您点击该图，您可以看到更多详细信息)。
联交所：563盈利及收入增长2022年10月7日
资产负债表的强健至关重要。也许很值得一看我们的免费报告其财务状况如何随着时间的推移而发生变化。
那股息呢？
重要的是要考虑任何给定股票的总股东回报以及股价回报。TSR包括任何剥离或贴现融资的价值，以及任何股息，基于股息再投资的假设。因此，对于支付丰厚股息的公司来说，TSR往往比股价回报高得多。以上海工业城市发展集团为例，过去5年的总资产收益率为-63%。这超过了我们之前提到的它的股价回报。这在很大程度上是其股息支付的结果！
不同的视角
虽然亏损从来都不是好事，但上海工业城市发展集团的股东们可以感到欣慰的是，包括股息在内，他们过去12个月的17%的亏损并没有市场上24%左右的亏损那么糟糕。更令人沮丧的是，投资者在过去五年里遭受了每年10%的损失。这种股价走势并不特别鼓舞人心，但至少损失正在放缓。跟踪股价的长期表现总是很有趣的。但要更好地理解上海工业城市发展集团，我们还需要考虑许多其他因素。例如，我们已经确定上海工业城市发展集团的三个警示标志(1是重要的)，您应该知道。
如果你喜欢和管理层一起买股票，那么你可能会喜欢这本书免费公司名单。(提示：内部人士一直在买入这些股票)。
请注意，本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗？担心内容吗？ 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者，也可以给编辑组发电子邮件，地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写，具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论，我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议，也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意，我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
