It's nice to see the Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ:KALU) share price up 13% in a week. The stock is actually down over the last year. But at least it bettered the loss of 24% in its market.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last year, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
See our latest analysis for Kaiser Aluminum
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Even though the Kaiser Aluminum share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past. Extraordinary items have impacted profits over the last twelve months.
It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. So it's easy to justify a look at some other metrics.
We don't see any weakness in the Kaiser Aluminum's dividend so the steady payout can't really explain the share price drop. The revenue trend doesn't seem to explain why the share price is down. Unless, of course, the market was expecting a revenue uptick.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
NasdaqGS:KALU Earnings and Revenue Growth October 21st 2022
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Kaiser Aluminum, it has a TSR of -23% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Kaiser Aluminum shareholders are down 23% over twelve months (even including dividends), which isn't far from the market return of -24%. Unfortunately, last year's performance is a deterioration of an already poor long term track record, given the loss of 2% per year over the last five years. Weak performance over the long term usually destroys market confidence in a stock, but bargain hunters may want to take a closer look for signs of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Kaiser Aluminum , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
很高兴能看到凯撒铝业公司(纳斯达克:KALU)股价在一周内上涨了13%。在过去的一年里,该公司的股票实际上是下跌的。但至少它在其市场上损失了24%。
尽管过去一周对股东来说更令人放心,但他们在过去一年仍然处于亏损状态,所以让我们看看基础业务是否对股价下跌负有责任。
查看我们对凯撒铝业的最新分析
不可否认,市场有时是有效的,但价格并不总是反映潜在的商业表现。一种不完美但简单的方法来考虑市场对一家公司的看法是如何改变的,那就是将每股收益(EPS)的变化与股价走势进行比较。
尽管凯撒铝业的股价在过去一年里有所下降,但其每股收益实际上有所改善。过去的增长预期很有可能是不合理的。在过去的12个月里,非常项目影响了利润。
令人惊讶的是,尽管每股收益有所改善,但股价却下跌了这么多。因此,很容易证明看看其他一些指标是合理的。
我们没有看到凯撒铝业的股息有任何疲软,因此稳定的派息并不能真正解释股价下跌的原因。营收趋势似乎无法解释股价下跌的原因。当然,除非市场预期收入会上升。
该公司的收入和收益(随着时间的推移)如下图所示(点击查看具体数字)。
NasdaqGS:KALU收益和收入增长2022年10月21日
资产负债表的强健至关重要。也许很值得一看我们的免费报告其财务状况如何随着时间的推移而发生变化。
那股息呢?
在考察投资回报时,重要的是要考虑到股东总回报(TSR)和股价回报。TSR包括任何剥离或贴现融资的价值,以及任何股息,基于股息再投资的假设。可以说,TSR更全面地描绘了一只股票产生的回报。以凯撒铝业为例,它在过去一年的总资产收益率为-23%。这超过了我们之前提到的它的股价回报。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种差异是没有好处的!
不同的视角
凯撒铝业的股东在过去12个月里下跌了23%(甚至包括股息),距离-24%的市场回报率不远。不幸的是,考虑到过去五年每年2%的亏损,去年的业绩是对本已糟糕的长期记录的恶化。长期表现疲软通常会摧毁市场对一只股票的信心,但逢低买入者可能希望更仔细地寻找好转的迹象。我发现,把股价作为衡量企业业绩的长期指标是非常有趣的。但为了真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。例如,考虑一下无处不在的投资风险幽灵。我们已经确定了两个警告信号与凯撒铝业合作,了解它们应该是您投资过程的一部分。
当然了,如果你把目光投向别处,你可能会发现这是一笔很棒的投资。所以让我们来看看这个免费我们预计收益将会增长的公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。