People Aren't Keeping Up With Car Payments — And It Hasn't Been This Bad Since 2009
People Aren't Keeping Up With Car Payments — And It Hasn't Been This Bad Since 2009
See Also: Tesla Gets Price Target Bumps By AnalystsA recent tweet by "CarDealershipGuy" grabbed a lot of attention.
最近的一条推文 “CardealershipGuy” 引起了很多关注。
About 1.84% of auto loans are now "severely delinquent," he said, citing Cox Automotive data. That's the highest rate since February 2009 — a time when the global automotive industry spiraled as a result of the Great Recession.
他援引说，现在约有1.84％的汽车贷款 “严重拖欠” 考克斯汽车 数据。这是自2009年2月以来的最高水平，当时由于大萧条，全球汽车行业呈螺旋式上升。
Here's the thing: That's not as bad as it sounds, a Cox Automotive spokesman explained to Benzinga.
事实是：考克斯汽车发言人向本辛加解释说，这并不像听起来那么糟糕。
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"In 2009, unemployment was high and when there's high unemployment, delinquencies often turn into defaults which become repossessions," Cox Automotive's Mark Schirmer says.
Cox Automotive的马克·席尔默说：“2009年，失业率很高，当失业率居高不下时，违约往往会变成收回财产。”
Today, he adds, "the job picture is so much stronger."
他补充说，如今，“就业前景要好得多。”
Still, defaults are on the rise, too.
尽管如此，违约率也在上升。
Here's A Breakdown Of The Data
以下是数据明细
- Auto loan performance in December saw further deterioration as "delinquent by more than 60 days" increased by 5.3% and was up 26.7% from a year ago.
- Of all loans, 1.84% were severely delinquent — an increase from 1.74% in November and the highest rate since February 2009.
- Compared to a year ago, the severe delinquency rate was 39 basis points higher.
- In December, 7.11% of subprime loans were "severely delinquent" — up from 6.75% the prior month.
- The subprime severe delinquency rate was 163 basis points higher than a year ago, and the December rate was the highest in the data series back to 2006.
- Loan defaults declined 13.5% from November but were up 16.9% from a year ago. The annualized auto loan default rate in December was 2.56% — lower than the 2.98% rate in December 2019.
- The default rate in 2022 was 2.28%, up from a low of 1.98% last year but still lower than the 2.90% rate in 2019.
- 12月的汽车贷款表现进一步恶化，因为 “拖欠超过60天” 增加了5.3％，比去年同期增长了26.7％。
- 在所有贷款中，有1.84％严重拖欠——高于11月的1.74％，是自2009年2月以来的最高利率。
- 与一年前相比，严重拖欠率高出39个基点。
- 12月，7.11％的次级贷款 “严重拖欠”，高于上个月的6.75％。
- 次级贷款严重拖欠率比一年前高出163个基点，12月的比率是自2006年以来数据系列中最高的。
- 贷款违约比11月下降了13.5％，但比去年同期增长了16.9％。12月的年化汽车贷款违约率为2.56％，低于2019年12月的2.98％。
- 2022年的违约率为2.28％，高于去年的1.98％的低点，但仍低于2019年的2.90％。
While Cox Automotive expected auto loan defaults to continue to increase, "we are coming off of super-low auto default rates in 2020 and 2021 and beginning of 2022," Schirmer adds.
尽管考克斯汽车公司预计汽车贷款违约率将继续增加，但 “我们将在2020年和2021年以及2022年初摆脱超低的汽车违约率，” 席尔默补充说。
Tickers To Watch
值得关注的股票
Delinquencies for Ally Financial Inc (NYSE:ALLY) gradually increased throughout 2022. In the fourth quarter, 30-day delinquency rates rose to 3.56%. That's up from 2.93% in the third quarter; 2.52% in the second quarter; and 2% in the first quarter of 2022.
的拖欠款 艾利金融公司 纽约证券交易所代码：ALLY）在整个 2022 年逐渐增加。在第四季度，30天拖欠率上升至3.56％。这比第三季度的2.93％、第二季度的2.52％和2022年第一季度的2％有所增加。
Observers of this trend would be wise to tune in on Jan. 31 when Credit Acceptance Corp. (NASDAQ:CACC), a financing program company that enables automobile dealers to sell vehicles to consumers regardless of their credit history, releases fourth-quarter earnings.
观察这种趋势的观察者明智的做法是在 1 月 31 日收看 信贷接受公司 纳斯达克股票代码：CACC）发布了第四季度财报，这家融资计划公司使汽车经销商无论信用记录如何都能向消费者出售汽车。
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Photo: Courtesty Pixabay
照片：Courtesty Pixabay
