Harmonic Likely To See Upside After Securing Comcast Deal And Emerges As Front-Runner For Charter Win, Analysts Say
Harmonic Likely To See Upside After Securing Comcast Deal And Emerges As Front-Runner For Charter Win, Analysts Say
分析师称，Harmonic在获得康卡斯特交易后可能会看到上行空间，并成为Charter获胜的领跑者
- Needham analyst Ryan Koontz reiterated Harmonic Inc (NASDAQ:HLIT) with a Buy and maintained a $19 price target.
- HLIT reported a strong 4Q22. Revenue and Non-GAAP EPS of $164.3 million and $0.17 beat consensus estimates.
- Comcast Corp (NASDAQ:CMCSA) carried the quarter at 48% customer concentration, sure to concern investors that other tier 1 CableOS software deployments are not scaling as quickly.
- Book/bill of 0.79 declined from 1.1 last quarter, while total backlog and deferred revenue of $457.1 million (+4% Y/Y -7% Q/Q) reflected normalization of post-pandemic customer ordering patterns.
- The 1Q23 and F23 guidance was described as "conservative" and assumes little contribution from new cable customer wins and reflects the transition in video from license to subscription revenue.
- The analyst's F23 estimates decline -2%/-$.09, and introduced F24 revenue/EPS numbers at $873 million/$1.00.
- Despite a softer outlook for C23 than hoped, management exhibited a quietly confident tone the analyst believe indicates confidence in ramping wins from existing CableOS wins, a meaningful upside to C23 guidance, and a substantial likelihood of success at Charter Communications, Inc (NASDAQ:CHTR).
- Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold maintained an Outperform and lowered the price target from $18 to $17.
- The analyst's thesis regarding Harmonic's leading position in the evolution of broadband networks remains intact, but those seeking instant gratification may be disappointed.
- The primary negative element stems from the more significant erosion of Harmonic's video segment, but management maintained and expressed confidence in its 2025 outlook.
- With Comcast secured, investor focus has shifted to Charter.
- Charter's plan calls for virtual CCAP and DAA deployment in 2024, which the analyst saw as the actual prize that Harmonic has yet to secure. However, in his view, it remains the clear front-runner.
- Price Action: HLIT shares traded lower by 6.90% at $13.22 on the last check Tuesday.
- 李约瑟分析师Ryan Koontz重申和声公司(纳斯达克：HLIT)与买入，并维持19美元的目标价。
- HLIT报告了强劲的第四季度22。收入和非GAAP每股收益分别为1.643亿美元和0.17美元，超出了普遍预期。
- 康卡斯特纳斯达克(Sequoia Capital：CMCSA)在本季度的客户集中度为48%，肯定会让投资者担心，其他第一层CableOS软件部署的扩展速度没有那么快。
- 账面/账单比上一季度的1.1有所下降，而总积压和递延收入为4.571亿美元(+4%Y/Y-7%Q/Q)，反映了疫情后客户订购模式的正常化。
- 第一季度和第二季度的指导被描述为“保守的”，并假设新的有线电视客户赢得的贡献很小，并反映了视频从许可证到订阅收入的过渡。
- 该分析师对F23财年的预期下降了2%/-0.09美元，并将F24财年的收入/每股收益数字引入到8.73亿美元/1.00美元。
- 尽管C23的前景比预期的要疲软，但管理层表现出一种悄悄而自信的语气，分析师认为这表明了对从现有CableOS胜利中获得胜利的信心，C23指导的一个有意义的上行空间，以及在C23上取得成功的巨大可能性查特通信公司(纳斯达克：中国高铁)。
- 雷蒙德·詹姆斯分析师西蒙·利奥波德(Simon Leopold)保持了优异的表现，并将目标价从18美元下调至17美元。
- 分析师关于Harmonic在宽带网络发展中的领先地位的论文仍然完好无损，但那些寻求即时满足的人可能会失望。
- 主要的负面因素来自Harmonic的视频部分更显著的侵蚀，但管理层保持并表达了对其2025年前景的信心。
- 在获得康卡斯特的支持后，投资者的注意力已转向查特。
- 查特的计划要求在2024年部署虚拟CCAP和DAA，这位分析师认为这是Harmonic尚未获得的实际战利品。然而，在他看来，它仍然是明显的领跑者。
- 价格行动：在周二的最后一次检查中，Hlitt的股价下跌了6.90%，至13.22美元。
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