Dividend Stocks Have New Competition: Cash
Dividend Stocks Have New Competition: Cash
Stocks used to be the only game in town for investors chasing robust returns. That is hardly the case any more.
股票曾经是投资者追逐强劲回报的唯一游戏。现在很难再出现这种情况了。
Soaring inflation has pushed government-bond yields to their highest levels in more than a decade. That, coupled with a soggy stock market, has led to a steady decline in the number of stocks that offer comparatively high yields: There were just 34 stocks in the S&P 500 with a dividend yield above that on the six-month Treasury bill as of Friday, according to Birinyi Associates. The six-month yield settled at 5.116%, according to Dow Jones Market Data
通胀飙升已将政府债券收益率推高至十多年来的最高水平。再加上股市低迷,导致提供相对较高收益率的股票数量稳步减少:根据Birinyi Associates的数据,截至上周五,标准普尔500指数中只有34只股票的股息收益率高于6个月期美国国债的股息收益率。根据道琼斯市场数据,6个月期国债收益率为5.116%
That is a dramatic shift from much of the past decade when interest rates were near zero and hundreds of stocks within the index offered higher yields. At the end of 2021, before interest rates began to rise, there were 379 index constituents that offered a better yield than the Treasury bill, according to Birinyi.
与过去10年的大部分时间相比,这是一个戏剧性的转变,当时利率接近于零,该指数中的数百只股票提供了更高的收益率。根据Birinyi的数据,2021年底,在利率开始上升之前,有379个指数成分股提供了比国债更好的收益率。
Because U.S. government bonds are considered to be safer than even blue-chip stocks, some investors say it is difficult to justify putting money in the relatively risky stock market. The extra yield from a dividend-paying stock isn't worth the added chance that a company will endure a business slump, they say, especially because of the uncertain economic outlook.
由于美国政府债券被认为比蓝筹股更安全,一些投资者表示,很难证明将资金投入风险相对较高的股市是合理的。他们说,派息股票的额外收益不值得一家公司承受业务低迷的额外机会,特别是在经济前景不确定的情况下。
There's no reason whatsoever to buy a risky company just because it's in the same yield ZIP Code as cash," said Macro4Micro editor Glenn Reynolds, who said he has more than 80% of his portfolio in cash.
Macro4Micro的编辑格伦·雷诺兹说,没有任何理由仅仅因为一家高风险公司的邮政编码与现金收益率相同就买入它。
Stocks and bond yields tumbled last week over worries about the health of the banking sector and a hotter-than-expected labor market. A sharp decline in bank stocks, however, raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve might be forced to end its tightening campaign sooner than previously expected. The S&P 500 is up 0.6% this year and down 19% from its January 2022 peak.
上周,由于对银行业健康状况和高于预期的劳动力市场的担忧,股票和债券收益率大幅下跌。然而,银行股的大幅下跌增加了这样一种可能性,即美联储可能会被迫比之前预期的更早结束紧缩行动。标准普尔500指数今年上涨0.6%,较2022年1月的峰值下跌19%。
The state of the economy will be in focus again this week as investors seek clues on the path of interest rates. Consumer-price index data for February is expected Tuesday, while retail sales data is due Wednesday. Earnings from $FedEx (FDX.US)$ are scheduled for Thursday.
本周,随着投资者寻找利率路径的线索,经济状况将再次成为关注的焦点。2月份的消费者价格指数数据预计将于周二公布,而零售销售数据将于周三公布。来自以下项目的收益$联邦快递 (FDX.US)$定于周四举行。
The yield curve remains sharply inverted, meaning short-term interest rates are higher than longer-term rates. That reflects uncertainty surrounding the economy's long-run direction.
收益率曲线仍然急剧倒置,这意味着短期利率高于长期利率。这反映出围绕经济长期方向的不确定性。
From a top down perspective, the yield curve is sending a cautionary message to equity investors," said Ryan Hedrick, portfolio manager of the T.Rowe Price value fund. In such environments, dividend payments often account for a greater share of investor returns than from capital appreciation, he said.
T.Rowe Price Value基金的投资组合经理Ryan Hedrick表示,从自上而下的角度来看,收益率曲线正在向股票投资者发出警示信息。他说,在这种环境下,股息支付在投资者回报中所占的份额往往大于资本增值。
Dividend-paying stocks were a bright spot in last year's battered market. The S&P 500 High Dividend Index fell 1.1% last year including payouts, compared with an 18% decline for the broad index. The index has fallen 4.9% in 2023.
在去年遭受重创的市场中,派息股票是一个亮点。包括股息在内,标准普尔500高股息指数去年下跌了1.1%,相比之下,大盘指数下跌了18%。该指数在2023年下跌了4.9%。
Despite the turmoil in markets, companies in the S&P 500 have continued to boost dividend payouts to investors. They paid out a record $564.6 billion in 2022 and are on course to set another high this year based on current dividend rates and assuming no membership changes to the index, according to the S&P Dow Jones Indices.
尽管市场动荡,但标准普尔500指数成份股公司继续增加向投资者支付的股息。根据标普道琼斯指数(S&P Dow Jones Indices)的数据,他们在2022年支付了创纪录的5646亿美元,根据目前的股息率,并假设该指数的成员不发生变化,今年有望再创新高。
The list of highest-yielding stocks includes many old-economy businesses. Companies typically return cash through dividends or repurchase their stock when the business generates more cash flow than needed to fund operations. These businesses generally have mature operations that generate significant cash flow but increase sales and profits more slowly than in more nascent industries like technology.
收益率最高的股票名单中包括许多传统经济企业。当企业产生的现金流超过为运营提供资金所需时,公司通常通过股息或回购股票来返还现金。这些企业通常拥有成熟的业务,能够产生可观的现金流,但与科技等更新的行业相比,增长销售和利润的速度要慢得多。
Several energy companies such as $Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD.US)$ and $Coterra Energy (CTRA.US)$ are on the list, with dividend yields of 13% and 10%. Some energy companies have even paid out special dividends as a result of high oil and gas prices. $Altria (MO.US)$, telecom giants $Verizon (VZ.US)$ and $AT&T (T.US)$, and chemical manufacturer $Dow Inc (DOW.US)$ also boast relatively large payouts of more than 5.2%.
几家能源公司,如$先锋自然资源 (PXD.US)$和$Coterra Energy (CTRA.US)$都在榜单上,股息收益率分别为13%和10%。由于石油和天然气价格居高不下,一些能源公司甚至支付了特别股息。$奥驰亚 (MO.US)$、电信巨头$Verizon (VZ.US)$和$AT&T (T.US)$、和化学品制造商$陶氏化学 (DOW.US)$此外,该公司的派息也相对较高,超过5.2%。
Investors say dividend-paying stocks still play an important role, even with interest income from bonds readily available. Mr. Hedrick said he favors stocks in more defensive sectors, such as healthcare, consumer staples, and property and casualty insurance.
投资者说,派息股票仍然发挥着重要作用,即使债券利息收入随处可得。海德里克说,他青睐防御性较强的股票,比如医疗保健、主要消费品、财产和意外伤害保险等。
I do think inflation shortens people's investment time horizons," said Lawrence Hamtil, an investment adviser at Fortune Financial Advisors who has identified tobacco investments as a hedge against inflation. In environments where prices are rising, preservation of capital becomes relatively more important to investors than long-term appreciation, a dynamic that makes dividend payers more attractive, he said.
我确实认为通胀会缩短人们的投资时间范围,“财富金融顾问公司的投资顾问劳伦斯·哈姆蒂尔说。他认为烟草投资是一种对冲通胀的手段。他说,在价格不断上涨的环境中,对投资者来说,保本变得相对比长期升值更重要,而长期升值使股息支付者更具吸引力。
Dividend stocks can still present risks if it becomes too expensive for companies to afford the payouts. $Intel (INTC.US)$ said last month that it would cut its dividend by 66% to save money. The semiconductor company is pursuing expensive factory expansions while it faces a short-term demand crunch.
如果股息股票变得过于昂贵,公司无法支付股息,那么它仍然可能带来风险。$英特尔 (INTC.US)$该公司上月表示,将削减66%的股息以节省资金。这家半导体公司在面临短期需求紧缩的同时,正在寻求代价高昂的工厂扩张。
In this environment, we came to the conclusion that the highest dividend payer shouldn't also be the highest capital investor," Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said on a conference call.
在这种环境下,我们得出的结论是,派息最高的人不应该也是最高的资本投资者,“英特尔首席执行官兼首席执行官兼首席执行官帕特·盖尔辛格在电话会议上表示。
AT&T cut its dividend last year when it divested the WarnerMedia division. Intel stock is down 39% over the past 12 months, including dividends. AT&T shares have gained 12%.
AT&T去年剥离WarnerMedia部门时削减了股息。包括股息在内,英特尔股价在过去12个月里下跌了39%。AT&T的股价上涨了12%。
Write to Charley Grant at charles.grant@wsj.com
写信给Charley Grant,电子邮件:charles.grant@wsj.com