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Stock Scuttlebutt: NEC, SUL

Stock Scuttlebutt: NEC, SUL

Stock Scuttlebutt:NEC,
sharecafe ·  2023/05/04 06:07

The Macquarie conference this week has proved a bit of a confessional for the presenting companies, and Nine Entertainment and Super Retail were no different on Thursday.

事实证明,本周的麦格理会议对主办公司来说有点自白,周四的Nine Entertainment和Super Retail也不例外。

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Nine Entertainment (ASX: NEC) has joined its rival Seven West Media in forecasting a slide in ad revenues in the year to June because of a steepening slide in second half spending by advertisers large and small.

Nine Entertainment (ASX: N 已与竞争对手Seven West Media一起预测,由于下半年大大小小的广告商的支出急剧下滑,截至6月的一年中,广告收入将下滑。

Nine CEO Mike Sneesby produced, as anticipated, a lowered forecast because of a slide in TV advertising volume and prices in a presentation to the Macquarieconference in Sydney on Thursday.

由于电视广告量和价格下滑,Nine首席执行官迈克·斯内斯比在周四向悉尼麦格理会议发表的演讲中如预期的那样下调了预测。

Seven CEO James Warburton had earlier this week revealed his company's ad revenue downgrade and up to $20 million of additional (temporary) content cost cuts for the six months to June 30.

Seven首席执行官詹姆斯·沃伯顿本周早些时候透露,在截至6月30日的六个月中,其公司的广告收入下调以及高达2000万美元的额外(临时)内容成本削减。

But in his address on Thursday, Nine's CEO said that while "Nine continues to expect to grow its revenue share of all key advertising platforms in the current half...the advertising market is expected to remain challenging through Q4 of FY23."

但Nine首席执行官在周四的讲话中表示,尽管 “Nine继续预计将在本半年增加其在所有主要广告平台中的收入份额... 预计到23财年第四季度,广告市场仍将充满挑战。”

"Based on our current view of market conditions, Nine is expecting FY23 EBITDA to be around $590-600m."

“根据我们目前对市场状况的看法,Nine预计23财年的息税折旧摊销前利润约为5.9亿至6亿美元。”

That would be down nearly 15% from the 2021-22 EBITDA of $701 million and a much faster rate of fall than the 9% fall revealed in the December half year results released in February this year.

这将比2021-22年度7.01亿美元的息税折旧摊销前利润下降近15%,下降速度要比今年2月发布的12月半年度业绩中公布的9%的下降速度快得多。

"Consistent with our commentary in February, the Metro FTA market declined by around 15% in Q3 (on Q3 FY22), with a similar decline expected in Q4 (on Q4 FY22), albeit the market remains short, with limited visibility," Sneesby told the conference.

斯内斯比在会议上说:“与我们在2月份的评论一致,Metro FTA市场在第三季度(22财年第三季度)下跌了约15%,预计在第四季度(22财年第四季度)也将出现类似的下降,尽管市场仍然空缺,知名度有限。”

"The absence of key events, particularly the 2022 Federal Election, accounted for an estimated 6% points of this decline. Nine clearly outperformed the market, gaining more than 2.5 percentage points of share across the quarter, on previous corresponding quarter."

“关键事件的缺失,尤其是2022年联邦大选,估计占了下降的6%。Nine的表现显然优于市场,整个季度的份额比上一个同期增长了2.5个百分点以上。”

"9Now continues its growth trajectory, with nearly 22% revenue growth in Q3, marginally ahead of February guidance. Whilst the structural growth in 9Now's audiences and engagement continues, the digital video market is not completely immune to the current advertising cycle.

“9Now继续保持增长轨迹,第三季度收入增长近22%,略高于2月份的预期。尽管9Now观众和参与度的结构性增长仍在继续,但数字视频市场也无法完全不受当前广告周期的影响。

"Together, this equates to Total Television advertising revenue for Nine which is expected to be down in the very low single digits (%) in FY23 compared to FY22, a strong outcome against the backdrop of a weak economy, reflecting ongoing revenue share gains.

“加在一起,这相当于Nine的电视广告总收入预计将在23财年下降到非常低的个位数(%),在经济疲软的背景下,这是一个强劲的业绩,反映了收入份额的持续增长。

"Total Television costs are expected to increase in the low single digits in the second half, resulting in FY23 Total Television cost growth of slightly below 7%, as per the February guidance."

“根据2月份的指引,预计下半年电视总成本将以个位数的低位数增长,导致23财年的电视总成本增长略低于7%。”

"Nine's Publishing business continues to benefit from the growth of digital audiences, with digital subscription revenue growth expected to be around 8% in H2. Earlier this month, and reflecting Nine's growing audience engagement, Nine communicated digital-only price increases across The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, WA Today and The Brisbane Times that are due to commence during May. Initial reporting suggests that these price increases have not resulted in a significant increase in churn.

“Nine的出版业务继续受益于数字受众的增长,预计下半年数字订阅收入将增长约8%。本月早些时候,Nine传达了仅限数字的价格上涨,这反映了Nine的观众参与度不断提高 悉尼先驱晨报时代今日西澳州 《布里斯班时报》 定于五月开始。初步报告表明,这些价格上涨并未导致流失率的大幅增加。

"Once implemented, this should lead to a meaningful increase in ARPU and digital subscription revenue from these titles. Notwithstanding, as commented with the interim result, a more challenging advertising and cost environment in H2 will result in greater-than-normal EBITDA phasing to the first half," Sneesby told the meeting.

“一旦实施,这将使这些游戏的ARPU和数字订阅收入大幅增加。尽管如此,正如在中期业绩中所评论的那样,下半年更具挑战性的广告和成本环境将导致上半年的息税折旧摊销前利润分阶段超过正常水平,” 斯内斯比在会议上说。

Nine shares dropped 1% to $2.01.

九股下跌1%,至2.01美元。

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Meanwhile, shares in Super Retail Group (ASX: SUL) sank sharply after it, too, used the Macquarie colloquy to reveal problems - in this case a rise in second half costs from higher wages, rents, energy costs and building delays.

同时,股价为 超级零售集团 (ASX: SUL) 在它利用麦格理座谈会揭露问题之后,它也大幅下跌——在本例中,下半年成本因工资、租金、能源成本上涨和建筑延误而上涨。

The shares ended down 7.1% at $12.49 after touching a low of $12.36.

该股在触及12.36美元的低点后,收盘下跌7.1%,至12.49美元。

"The way we think about it, underlying demand for retail will be flat to negative. We are planning for the worst and hoping for the best," CEO Anthony Heraghty told the Macquarie Australia Conference.

“从我们的角度来看,零售的基本需求将持平至负数。我们正在为最坏的情况做准备,也希望有最好的结果。” 首席执行官安东尼·赫拉格蒂在麦格理澳大利亚会议上说。

The company said in a trading update based on the presentation that its second half group gross margin to date "is 10bps below gross margin (which was 46.2%) delivered in the first half."

该公司在基于该报告的最新交易报告中表示,其下半年集团迄今为止的毛利率 “比上半年的毛利率(46.2%)低10个基点。”

Mr Heraghty said "Following strong trading in the key Easter holiday period, the Group has continued to deliver positive like-for-like sales growth in FY23 YTD."

Heraghty表示:“继关键的复活节假期交易强劲之后,集团在23财年年初至今继续实现正的同比销售增长。”

"Supercheap Auto has seen an ongoing shift in consumer demand to less discretionary items with auto maintenance and lubricants the strongest performing categories.

“Supercheap Auto的消费者需求持续转向自由裁量较少的产品,其中汽车保养和润滑油是表现最强的类别。

"Rebel has achieved strong sales growth in football and basketball. The trading performance of new regional stores in Ballina, Nowra, Tamworth and Bunbury is highly encouraging.

“Rebel 在足球和篮球领域实现了强劲的销售增长。位于巴利纳、瑙拉、塔姆沃思和班伯里的新区域门店的交易表现非常令人鼓舞。

"BCF sales reflect a growing contribution from strategic brands. The level of promotional intensity in the camping and outdoor category remains high, with aggressive mark down activity from competitors.

“BCF的销售反映了战略品牌的贡献越来越大。露营和户外类别的促销强度仍然很高,竞争对手的降价活动也很激烈。

"Macpac delivered a record Easter trading result driven by higher sales in both Australia and New Zealand."

“在澳大利亚和新西兰销售额增加的推动下,Macpac取得了创纪录的复活节交易业绩。”

Mr Heraghty said offshore freight costs have returned to pre-pandemic levels "however inflationary pressures on wages, rent and energy expenses will impact Group CODB in the second half."

赫拉格蒂表示,离岸运费已恢复到疫情前的水平,“但是工资、租金和能源支出的通货膨胀压力将在下半年影响Group CODB。”

"The Group has opened 14 stores in FY23 year to date, with a further 13 stores scheduled to be opened by the end of FY23. Given delays in construction & development approvals, there is a risk that some store openings will slip into FY24.

“到目前为止,该集团已在23财年开设了14家门店,另有13家门店计划在23财年末开业。鉴于施工和开发批准的延迟,一些门店的开业有可能延迟到24财年。

"The macro environment remains challenging; however, the Group's large active club member loyalty base and leading market positions in the resilient auto and sports categories mean it is well positioned to perform throughout the economic cycle," he added.

他补充说:“宏观环境仍然充满挑战;但是,集团庞大的活跃俱乐部会员忠诚度基础以及在弹性汽车和运动类别中的领先市场地位意味着它完全有能力在整个经济周期中表现出色。”

All up that sounds like growing pressure on margins, hence the sharp fall in the share price.

所有这些听起来像是利润压力越来越大,因此股价急剧下跌。

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