Consumers Restrain Spending In September
Consumers Restrain Spending In September
Summary
发明内容
By Robert Hughes
罗伯特·休斯(Robert Hughes)著
Retail sales and food services spending fell 0.3 percent in September following a 0.6 percent gain in August. Over the past year, total retail sales and food services were up 4.1 percent through September. For the third quarter, total retail sales were up at 1.5 from the second quarter and 4.0 percent from the third quarter of 2018.
9月份零售额和餐饮支出下降了百分之零点三，而8月份则上升了百分之零点六。在过去的一年中，零售总额和食品服务增长了百分之四点一。第三季度，零售总额比第二季度增长1.5%，比2018年第三季度增长4.0%。
Excluding the volatile auto and energy categories, core retail sales and food services were unchanged in September after a gain of 0.4 percent in August. Core retail sales had posted six straight monthly gains through August, helping drive a year-over-year gain of 4.5 percent. For the third quarter, core retail sales rose 1.7 percent versus the second quarter and were up 4.3 percent from 2018 (see top chart).
不包括波动较大的汽车和能源类别，核心零售销售和食品服务在8月增长0.4%后，9月持平.截至8月，核心零售额连续六个月增长，推动同比增长4.5%。第三季度，核心零售额比第二季度增长1.7%，比2018年增长4.3%(见上图)。
Details of the September retail sales report were mixed, with declines in seven retail spending categories, while five categories posted gains and one was essentially unchanged. Declines were led by a 1.0 percent drop in building material, garden equipment, and garden supplies dealers and a 0.9 percent drop in motor vehicles. Despite the drop in the dollar measure of motor vehicle and parts sales, unit auto sales rose to 17.2 million at an annual rate in September versus 17.0 in August (see bottom chart). The gain in unit sales was driven by increases in both light truck sales (12.54 million in September versus 12.42 million in August) and car sales (4.65 million versus 4.59 million). However, over the past six and a half years, car sales have sharply trailed light truck sales. For September, light trucks accounted for 73 percent of vehicle sales, a record high, while cars were just 27 percent.
9月零售销售报告的细节喜忧参半，七个类别的零售支出下降，而五个类别的零售支出有所增加，一个类别的零售支出基本保持不变。下降的主要原因是建筑材料、园艺设备和园艺用品经销商下降了1.0%，汽车下降了0.9%。尽管以美元衡量的机动车和零部件销量有所下降，但按年率计算，9月份的汽车销量为1720万辆，而8月份为17.0辆(见下图)。单位销售的增长受到轻型卡车销售(9月份为1254万辆，8月为1242万辆)和汽车销量(465万辆，8月份为459万辆)的增长的推动。然而，在过去的六年半时间里，轿车的销量远远落后于轻型卡车的销量。9月份，轻型卡车占汽车销售的73%，创历史新高，而汽车仅占27%。
Gasoline station sales fell 0.7 percent. The drop in gas station sales station sales reflects a 0.8 percent drop in average retail prices of gasoline.
加油站销售下降0.7%。加油站销售下降反映了汽油平均零售价格下降0.8%。
Posting gains were clothing and accessories stores, up 1.3 percent for the month, furniture stores, up 0.6 percent, and health and personal care stores, also up 0.6 percent. Over the past year, those categories have gains of 1.5 percent, 1.1 percent, and 2.9 percent, respectively.
当月服装和配饰店增长1.3%，家具店增长0.6%，健康和个人护理商店也增长0.6%。在过去一年中，这些类别的收益分别为1.5%、1.1%和2.9%。
Surprisingly, nonstore retailers, predominantly on line shopping, had a 0.3 percent decline for the month. This category has been growing very robustly for years, posting a gain of 12.9 percent over the last 12 months. It's highly likely this category will continue to post strong gains in the future.
令人惊讶的是，以网上购物为主的非商店零售商当月下降了0.3%。这一类别多年来一直在强劲增长，在过去12个月中增长了12.9%。这一类别极有可能在未来继续强劲增长。
The weak data for September adds to the uncertainty about future economic growth. Turmoil in policy, including trade policy and monetary policy, is starting to impact business and consumer confidence. If the softening in confidence translates into significant restraint in hiring, business investment and consumer spending, the probability of recession increases dramatically. For now, economic expansion is the most likely path, but caution is warranted.
9月份疲弱的数据增加了对未来经济增长的不确定性。包括贸易政策和货币政策在内的政策动荡正开始影响企业和消费者信心。如果信心的疲软转化为招聘、商业投资和消费者支出方面的显著抑制，那么衰退的可能性就会大幅增加。就目前而言，经济扩张是最有可能的途径，但谨慎是有必要的。
原邮政
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
编者按：本文的摘要项目符号是通过寻找Alpha编辑来选择的。