Brexit Uncertainty For Investors Persists
Brexit Uncertainty For Investors Persists
Summary
摘要
By Bill Witherell, Ph.D
作者：比尔·威瑟雷尔(Bill Witherell)，博士
The exceptional Saturday session of the United Kingdom's Parliament, the first in 37 years, was expected to produce a decisive "yes" or "no" vote on the new Brexit deal Prime Minister Boris Johnson had negotiated with the European Union (EU). October 19 was the final day for Parliament to agree to a deal before the Prime Minister would be required to request an extension from the EU beyond the current date of October 31. To the government's apparent surprise, an amendment was proposed and passed (322 to 306) stipulating that Johnson's deal could be approved only when all the legislation implementing the withdrawal is passed. So, no vote on the deal was possible.
英国议会周六的特别会议是37年来的首次，预计将对首相鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)与欧盟(EU)谈判达成的新英国退欧协议投下决定性的赞成票或反对票。10月19日是议会同意协议的最后一天，之后首相将被要求向欧盟申请将协议延长至目前的10月31日之后。令政府明显惊讶的是，提出并通过了一项修正案(322票对306票)，规定约翰逊的交易只有在所有实施撤军的立法获得通过后才能获得批准。因此，不可能对该协议进行投票。
Johnson reiterated his position: "I will not negotiate a delay." But as he was required by law, he sent a letter to the EU requesting a three-month delay. He did not sign the letter, and sent an additional letter recommending that the EU not grant the requested extension. This maneuver will certainly be reviewed by one or more courts. In any event, the EU considered the request made and is very likely to grant the extension to limit the possibility of a no-deal hard exit of the UK from the EU.
约翰逊重申了他的立场：“我不会就延期进行谈判。”但根据法律的要求，他向欧盟发出了一封信，要求推迟三个月。他没有在信上签字，并另外发了一封信，建议欧盟不要批准请求的延期。这一行动肯定会得到一个或多个法院的审查。无论如何，欧盟考虑了这一请求，并很有可能批准延期，以限制英国无法达成协议硬退出欧盟的可能性。
As this is being written, there remain a number of possible Brexit outcomes. Johnson is expected to be able to have the deal voted on in the next several days, unless Commons Speaker John Bercow does not allow a rerun of the vote. A vote on the deal would likely be close, but it could pass. If so, Brexit could occur on October 31, and there would be no need for an extension. Or, if some limited further time is needed, a brief extension would surely be granted. However, even if the deal is passed, the Labour opposition has indicated it would offer an amendment that would require the deal to be put to another referendum. Organizing a referendum would take at least 22 weeks, it is estimated. The hundreds of thousands of "Remain" demonstrators on the streets in London Saturday would welcome such a development, but the outcome of a choice between the current deal and remaining in the EU is highly uncertain. Another expected proposed amendment will call for a UK-wide customs union with the EU and single market alignment.
在撰写本文之际，仍有许多可能的英国退欧结果。约翰逊预计将在未来几天内对该协议进行投票，除非下议院议长约翰·伯考(John Bercoo)不允许重新进行投票。对该协议的投票可能会很接近，但它可能会获得通过。如果是这样的话，英国退欧可能会在10月31日发生，不需要延期。或者，如果需要一些有限的进一步时间，肯定会批准短暂的延期。然而，即使该协议获得通过，工党反对党也表示，他们将提出一项修正案，要求将该协议提交另一次全民公投。据估计，组织全民公投至少需要22周时间。周六在伦敦街头的数十万“留欧”示威者将欢迎这样的事态发展，但在当前协议和留在欧盟之间做出选择的结果非常不确定。另一项预计提出的修正案将呼吁在英国范围内与欧盟建立关税同盟，并建立单一市场联盟。
Should there be no positive vote on the deal, a three-month delay is very likely to be granted by the EU, even though both France and Ireland have threatened to oppose this. Johnson's failure to obtain approval of his deal is expected to lead to a confidence motion by the opposition, the downfall of his government, and a new election, which, in turn, could lead to either another Conservative government or an opposition government committed to a second referendum.
如果该协议没有获得赞成票，欧盟很可能会批准推迟三个月，尽管法国和爱尔兰都威胁要反对这一做法。约翰逊未能让他的交易获得批准，预计将导致反对党提出信任动议，他的政府垮台，并举行新的选举，这反过来可能导致另一个保守党政府或反对党政府承诺举行第二次公投。
Finally, the risk of a hard, no-deal Brexit is still possible. This would happen if there is no agreement on a deal by October 31 and the EU fails to agree to an extension. It also is a possible outcome if there is a three-month extension but no agreement on a deal has been reached by the end of that extension.
最后，英国仍有可能出现硬退欧、无法达成协议的风险。如果在10月31日之前无法就协议达成协议，且欧盟未能同意延期，就会出现这种情况。如果延期三个月，但在延期结束时仍未就协议达成协议，这也是一个可能的结果。
The uncertainty about the United Kingdom's planned exit from the European Union in 2019 has been a headwind for the UK economy since the referendum in June 2016 started affecting business decisions. Economic growth had been solid until the end of 2016, and then, during the first half of 2017, eased to the slowest rate among the G7 countries. In the last two and a half years, Brexit uncertainties have led to deteriorating business confidence and have held back investment decisions. In 2018, gross fixed capital formation slowed to just 0.2% for the year. Pressures to relocate some financial activities abroad have increased, threatening the leading role of the City of London. The OECD is projecting economic growth for the UK of only 1% this year and 0.9% for 2020, assuming an orderly Brexit in 2019.
自2016年6月公投开始影响商业决策以来，英国计划于2019年退出欧盟的不确定性一直是英国经济的逆风。在2016年底之前，经济增长一直很稳健，然后在2017年上半年，增速放缓至七国集团(G7)国家中最慢的。在过去的两年半里，英国退欧的不确定性导致商业信心恶化，并阻碍了投资决策。2018年，全年固定资本形成总额放缓至仅0.2%。将部分金融活动迁往海外的压力增加，威胁到伦敦金融城的主导地位。经合组织预计，假设2019年英国有序退欧，英国今年的经济增长率仅为1%，2020年为0.9%。
Investors generally do not like uncertainty, yet over the period since the referendum the FTSE 100 has gained 13%, despite wide swings in Brexit expectations and the slowing economy. The swings in market sentiment due to Brexit developments and the political turmoil in Parliament have been impressive. The range over the past 52 weeks for the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU), is 28.4-34.02, but the 1-year gain as of October 18 is just 0.19%. More market volatility looks likely ahead. Should agreement on a deal be reached this month, the probable resulting boost to market sentiment could prove to be short-lived, as an election would still be likely towards the end of this year or early in 2020.
投资者普遍不喜欢不确定性，然而在公投以来的一段时间里，富时100指数(FTSE100)上涨了13%，尽管英国退欧预期大幅波动，经济放缓。英国退欧事态发展和议会政治动荡导致的市场情绪波动令人印象深刻。IShares MSCI英国ETF(IShares MSCI UK ETF)过去52周的波动区间为EWU)，为28.4-34.02，但截至10月18日的一年期涨幅仅为0.19%.未来可能会出现更多的市场波动。如果本月就协议达成协议，可能对市场情绪的提振可能被证明是短暂的，因为选举仍有可能在今年年底或2020年初举行。
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Sources: Financial Times, bbc.com, cnbc.com, oecd.org
消息来源：金融时报，bbc.com，cnbc.com，OECD.org
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
编者注：本文的摘要项目符号是由寻找Alpha编辑选择的。