Summary
Sales of existing homes fell 2.2 percent in September to a 5.38 million seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Sales are still up 3.9 percent from a year ago, recovering from a slowdown during 2018 and early 2019. However, sales are about even with levels from 2016.
Sales in the market for existing single-family homes, which account for just under 90 percent of total existing-home sales, fell 2.6 percent in September, coming in at a 4.78 million seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Condo and co-op sales posted a 1.7 percent gain for the month, putting sales 3.4 percent ahead of the September 2018 pace.
Total inventory of existing homes for sale was unchanged at 1.83 million in September, pushing the months' supply (inventory times 12 divided by the annual selling rate) to 4.1, up from 4.0 in August.
By Robert Hughes
![saupload_Blog_2019_10_22-800x494_thumb1.png](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/10/23/saupload_Blog_2019_10_22-800x494_thumb1.png)
Sales of existing homes fell 2.2 percent in September to a 5.38 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Sales are still up 3.9 percent from a year ago, recovering from a slowdown during 2018 and early 2019. However, sales are about even with levels from 2016.
Sales declined in all four regions in September: sales were off 3.1 percent in the Midwest and were unchanged from the year-ago level; sales declined 2.8 percent in the Northeast, putting sales 1.5 percent above year-ago levels; sales dropped 2.1 percent in the South, the largest region by volume, leaving that region's sales rate 6.0 percent above the year-ago pace; and sales fell 0.9 percent for the month in the West and are 5.6 percent above the September 2018 rate.
Sales in the market for existing single-family homes, which account for just under 90 percent of total existing-home sales, fell 2.6 percent in September, coming in at a 4.78 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (see top chart). From a year ago, sales are up 3.9 percent. The September pace is about in line with the mid-2015 pace. Sales of existing single-family homes have been in a range of 4.2 million to 5 million since 2015, well below the peak pace of 6.34 million from September 2005 (see top chart).
Sales were down across all four regions: sales dropped 3.3 percent in the Midwest to 1.20 million; the Northeast saw a 3.3 percent decline to 580,000; the South posted a 2.4 percent pullback, coming in at 2.00 million; and sales declined 2.0 percent in the West to 1.00 million from 1.02 million in the prior month.
Condo and co-op sales posted a 1.7 percent gain for the month, putting sales 3.4 percent ahead of the September 2018 pace. Sales came in at a 600,000 pace for the month, matching the November 2012 pace. Since late 2012, sales of existing condos and co-ops have remained in a range of 540,000 to 640,000, well below the peak of 930,000 from June 2005 (see top chart).
Total inventory of existing homes for sale was unchanged at 1.83 million in September, pushing the months' supply (inventory times 12 divided by the annual selling rate) to 4.1, up from 4.0 in August. For the single-family segment, the months' supply rose to 4.0 from 3.9 while the condo and co-op months' supply fell to 4.3 from 4.4. Both remain about in line with the trend over the last few years (see bottom chart).
Rising home prices continue to weigh on home affordability. For the housing market overall, affordability remains somewhat favorable, but sales are unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months. Furthermore, new home construction is unlikely to contribute significantly to growth in gross domestic product in coming quarters. Still, consumer spending is growing, supported by a tight labor market, rising incomes, strong balance sheets, and generally high levels of consumer confidence. The main risks on the horizon continue to be uncertainty surrounding trade policy and fallout from ongoing trade wars, uncertainty regarding monetary and fiscal policy, and uncertainty from the expanding controversies surrounding the current administration and potential for impeachment. The latter is likely to worsen as the 2020 election cycle approaches.
Original Post
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
发明内容
9月份现房销售量下降了2.2%,经季节调整后按年率计算为538万套。
销售额仍比一年前增长3.9%,从2018年和2019年初的放缓中恢复过来。然而,销售额与2016年的水平持平。
占现房销售总量略低于90%的单户住宅市场销售在9月份下降了2.6%,经季节调整后按年率计算为478万套。
共管公寓和合作公寓的销售当月增长了1.7%,比2018年9月的销售增长了3.4%。
9月待售房屋总库存保持不变,仍为183万套,推动当月供应量(库存倍数12除以年销售率)从8月的4.0上升至4.1。
罗伯特·休斯(Robert Hughes)著
9月份现房销售量下降了2.2%,经季节调整后按年率计算为538万套。销售额仍比一年前增长3.9%,从2018年和2019年初的放缓中恢复过来。然而,销售额与2016年的水平持平。
9月,所有四个地区的销售额都出现了下降:中西部地区的销售额下降了3.1%,与去年同期持平;东北部地区的销售额下降了2.8%,使销售额比去年同期下降了1.5%;南部地区的销售额下降了2.1%,这是销量最大的地区,该地区的销售额同比下降了6.0%;西部地区当月的销售额下降了0.9%,比2018年9月的增长率高出5.6%。
9月份,占现有住房总销量略低于90%的单户住宅市场销售下降了2.6%,经季节调整后的年率为478万(见上图)。与一年前相比,销售额增长了3.9%。9月份的速度大约与2015年年中的速度一致。自2015年以来,现有单户住宅的销售量一直在420万至500万套之间,远低于2005年9月634万套的峰值速度(见上图)。
所有四个地区的销售额都出现了下降:中西部地区的销售额下降了3.3%,至120万;东北部地区的销售额下降了3.3%,至58万;南部地区的销售额下降了2.4%,为2000万;西部地区的销售额从前一个月的102万下降至1000万。
共管公寓和合作公寓的销售当月增长了1.7%,比2018年9月的销售增长了3.4%。这个月的销售速度为600,000,与2012年11月的速度相当。自2012年末以来,现有共管公寓和合作公寓的销售量一直保持在54万至64万套之间,远低于2005年6月93万套的峰值(见上图)。
9月待售房屋总库存保持不变,仍为183万套,推动当月供应量(库存倍数12除以年销售率)从8月的4.0上升至4.1。对于单户家庭,月份供应从3.9上升到4.0,而共管公寓和合作公寓的供应从4.4下降到4.3。两者都与过去几年的趋势保持一致(见下图)。
不断上涨的房价继续拖累房屋负担能力。对整体住房市场而言,负担能力仍有些有利,但未来几个月的销售不太可能大幅上升。此外,新住宅建设不太可能在未来几个季度对国内生产总值(GDP)的增长做出重大贡献。尽管如此,在紧张的劳动力市场、不断增长的收入、强劲的资产负债表和总体上较高水平的消费者信心的支持下,消费者支出仍在增长。眼下的主要风险仍然是围绕贸易政策的不确定性和正在进行的贸易战的影响,有关货币和财政政策的不确定性,以及围绕本届政府和弹劾可能性的不断扩大的争议的不确定性。随着2020年选举周期的临近,后者可能会恶化。
原邮政
编者按:本文的摘要项目符号是通过寻找Alpha编辑来选择的。