Summary
New home sale prices have resumed falling, and we have to go back to early January 2017 to find similarly low prices.
At a preliminary estimate of 4.93 times median household income for September 2019, the falling median new home sale price in the United States is now the lowest it has been since April 2013.
For new homebuilders, the falling trend for sale prices is coming as new home sales are slowing, which we can see in the slowing rise of the industry's market capitalization.
After having held relatively steady in recent months, new home sale prices have resumed falling. The chart below shows the raw median and average new home sale prices reported by the U.S. Census Bureau since January 2000, where we have to go back to early January 2017 to find similarly low prices.
After smoothing out the month-to-month volatility in the data for median new home sale prices by calculating its rolling twelve-month average, we can confirm the resumption of the falling trend that originally began in October 2018 in the following chart that focuses on the period since July 2012.
In terms of affordability, at a preliminary estimate of 4.93 times median household income for September 2019, the falling median new home sale price in the United States is now the lowest it has been since April 2013. The following chart shows the ratio of the trailing twelve-month averages of median new home sale prices and median household income from 1967 to the present.
![saupload_ratio-of-ttma-median-new-home-sale-prices-and-median-household-income-annual-1967-2017-monthly-200012-201909_thumb1.png]()
This median affordability ratio has generally only been higher during periods of time when the real estate market experienced bubble conditions or, more accurately, supply shortage conditions.
For new homebuilders, the falling trend for sale prices is coming as new home sales are slowing, which we can see in the slowing rise of the industry's market capitalization, the aggregate value of all new home sales across the United States.
![saupload_ttma-new-home-sales-market-capitalization-nominal-inflation-adjusted-197601-201909_thumb1.png]()
While preliminary data indicates the U.S. new home market cap is still rising, September 2019 saw the first deceleration in that growth in the months since falling mortgage rates sparked a rebound in the national new home market following its recent recessionary trough, which ran from mid-2018 to early 2019. September 2019's sudden deceleration is easier to see in the following chart showing the year-over-year rate of growth of the U.S. new homes market cap.
![saupload_yoy-growth-rate-nominal-inflation-adjusted--ttma-new-homes-market-capitalization-200001-201909_thumb1.png]()
Unfortunately, the U.S. Census Bureau's new home sales data doesn't allow for the kind of state- or local-level analysis we can do with existing homes data, but their available regional data points to the West region as having seen significantly falling sales in September 2019. When the state-level existing homes sales data for September 2019 becomes available next month, we'll take a closer look at the West region, where we assume that whatever is happening with the trends for new homes in those states will be paralleled in the much more detailed existing homes sales data.
Original Post
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
Summary
New home sale prices have resumed falling, and we have to go back to early January 2017 to find similarly low prices.
新房销售价格已经恢复下跌，我们必须回到2017年1月初才能找到类似的低价。
At a preliminary estimate of 4.93 times median household income for September 2019, the falling median new home sale price in the United States is now the lowest it has been since April 2013.
初步预估为2019年9月家庭收入中位数的4.93倍，美国不断下降的新屋销售价格中位数目前为2013年4月以来最低。
For new homebuilders, the falling trend for sale prices is coming as new home sales are slowing, which we can see in the slowing rise of the industry's market capitalization.
对于新屋建筑商来说，随着新房销售放缓，销售价格下跌的趋势正在到来，我们可以从该行业市值上升放缓中看出这一点。
After having held relatively steady in recent months, new home sale prices have resumed falling. The chart below shows the raw median and average new home sale prices reported by the U.S. Census Bureau since January 2000, where we have to go back to early January 2017 to find similarly low prices.
在近几个月保持相对稳定之后，新房销售价格重新开始下跌。下图显示了新屋销售的原始中值和平均价格。已报告自2000年1月以来，美国人口普查局一直在寻找类似的低价，我们必须回到2017年1月初才能找到类似的低价。
After smoothing out the month-to-month volatility in the data for median new home sale prices by calculating its rolling twelve-month average, we can confirm the resumption of the falling trend that originally began in October 2018 in the following chart that focuses on the period since July 2012.
在通过计算新房销售价格中值数据的12个月滚动平均值来平滑数据的环比波动后，我们可以在以下图表中确认最初始于2018年10月的下跌趋势的恢复，该图表关注的是自2012年7月以来的一段时间。
In terms of affordability, at a preliminary estimate of 4.93 times median household income for September 2019, the falling median new home sale price in the United States is now the lowest it has been since April 2013. The following chart shows the ratio of the trailing twelve-month averages of median new home sale prices and median household income from 1967 to the present.
在可负担性方面，初步估计2019年9月家庭收入中位数的4.93倍，美国不断下降的新屋销售价格中位数现在是2013年4月以来的最低水平。下图显示了1967年至今新房销售价格中值和家庭收入中值的过去12个月均值的比率。
This median affordability ratio has generally only been higher during periods of time when the real estate market experienced bubble conditions or, more accurately, supply shortage conditions.
这一可负担率的中位数通常只在房地产市场经历泡沫状态，或者更准确地说，供应短缺的情况下才会更高。
For new homebuilders, the falling trend for sale prices is coming as new home sales are slowing, which we can see in the slowing rise of the industry's market capitalization, the aggregate value of all new home sales across the United States.
对于新屋建筑商来说，随着新房销售放缓，销售价格下降的趋势正在到来，我们可以从该行业市值(全美所有新房销售的总价值)上升放缓中看出这一点。
While preliminary data indicates the U.S. new home market cap is still rising, September 2019 saw the first deceleration in that growth in the months since falling mortgage rates sparked a rebound in the national new home market following its recent recessionary trough, which ran from mid-2018 to early 2019. September 2019's sudden deceleration is easier to see in the following chart showing the year-over-year rate of growth of the U.S. new homes market cap.
虽然初步数据显示，美国新房市场上限仍在上升，但2019年9月出现了自抵押贷款利率下降引发全国新房市场反弹以来几个月来的首次减速。最近的衰退低谷从2018年年中持续到2019年初。2019年9月的突然减速在下面的图表中更容易看到，该图表显示了美国新房市场市值的同比增长率。
Unfortunately, the U.S. Census Bureau's new home sales data doesn't allow for the kind of state- or local-level analysis we can do with existing homes data, but their available regional data points to the West region as having seen significantly falling sales in September 2019. When the state-level existing homes sales data for September 2019 becomes available next month, we'll take a closer look at the West region, where we assume that whatever is happening with the trends for new homes in those states will be paralleled in the much more detailed existing homes sales data.
不幸的是，美国人口普查局的新房屋销售数据没有考虑到这种州或地方级分析我们可以利用现房数据，但他们的可获得的区域数据指出西部地区在2019年9月的销售额大幅下降。当2019年9月的州级现房销售数据在下个月公布时，我们将更仔细地关注西部地区，我们假设，无论这些州的新房趋势发生什么，都会出现在更详细的现房销售数据中。
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
编者注：本文的摘要项目符号是由寻找Alpha编辑选择的。
