Summary
Gold is nearing 20-year highs in value relative to silver.
Only palladium, heavily used in auto manufacturing, has outperformed gold in 2019 among precious metals.
Investors that believe that the market will move back towards its long-term average are implicitly backing silver to outperform gold in the future.
By Gregor Spilker
![saupload_web19OM0017-Gold-nuggets_640x360.jpg](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/11/8/saupload_web19OM0017-Gold-nuggets_640x360.jpg)
After a few years away from the spotlight, the gold market has returned. Its performance year-to-date is up nearly 20% as investors flocked to safe haven assets in the light of trade wars and geopolitical uncertainty.
With the Federal Reserve turning dovish and yields falling across the board, the opportunity cost of investing and holding gold was also reduced. The metal broke through the $1,400/troy oz. barrier in June, a level that had not been breached since the gold market correction in 2013.
The performance of gold in 2019 looks even more impressive relative to other precious metals such as silver and platinum. Only one metal managed to outshine gold: palladium has advanced nearly 40% over the course of the year.
The Gold/Silver Barometer
The gold-silver ratio shows how many ounces of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold. It is a widely followed barometer of the relative price of gold and silver. Looking back over the past 20 years, the average gold-silver ratio was approximately 64x (one unit of gold would buy 64 units of silver). At the end of September 2019, the ratio stood at 87x, just shy of an all-time high of 92x recorded in June 2019. Currently, the ratio is about 33% above its long-term average and within the 95th percentile - meaning that the ratio was at this level only 5% or less of the time in this period.
![saupload_Gold-Silver-ratio-640x343.png](https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/11/8/saupload_Gold-Silver-ratio-640x343.png)
Source: CME Group, Bloomberg
Investors that believe that the market will move back towards its long-term average are implicitly backing silver to outperform gold in the future. Historically, a high gold-silver ratio was associated with a subsequent outperformance of silver versus gold. When the ratio was in its lowest quintile (meaning silver was the most expensive relative to gold), subsequent 12-month returns for a long silver/short gold trade were -14%. Conversely, the same trade would have returned 7% when the ratio was in its highest quintile (as is the case now).
![saupload_silver-gold-returns-640x365.png]()
Source: CME Group, Bloomberg, based on 228 monthly readings from Oct 1999 to Sep 2019)
Gold's Precious Metal Cousins
If silver is gold's little brother, palladium and platinum more resemble distant cousins. Prior to 2010, platinum traded at a healthy premium to gold. The situation is opposite now, with gold quoting higher than platinum. The difference between the two is at historically unprecedented levels at a premium of more than $600/troy oz. for gold over platinum.
Demand from the automotive sector for platinum is subdued; the metal is mostly used in catalytic converters for vehicles with diesel engines and diesel demand is suffering as the industry is moving towards gasoline engines and, to a much smaller extent, electric and hybrid vehicles. Despite weaker industrial demand, the cheapness of platinum relative to gold may generate more interest - either from financial investors or from the jewelry sector.
![saupload_Gold-v-Platinum-640x298.png]()
Source: CME Group, Bloomberg
Palladium managed to outshine gold this year, increasing near 40% and doubling since 2018's July lows. For the first time ever, the metal settled above $1,600/troy oz. in September 2019. The metal is much more dependent on automotive demand than platinum.
According to Metal Focus, catalytic converters account for 40% of platinum demand, but 80% of palladium demand. Despite a slowdown in global vehicle sales, tightening emission standards in China and a move away from diesel engines elsewhere means that demand for palladium remains robust. Supply is relatively concentrated in Russia and South Africa and lead time for any greenfield mining projects is long.
![saupload_Gold-v-Palladium-640x302.png]()
Source: CME Group, Bloomberg
For anyone following the precious metals markets, 2019 has certainly been an exciting year, with gold breaking through long-defended resistance levels. The relative value between gold on one side and platinum or silver on the other side are at historically significant levels, indicating possible trading opportunities in the precious metals complex.
Original Post
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
发明内容
相对于白银,黄金的价值正接近20年来的最高点。
在贵金属中,只有大量用于汽车制造的钯在2019年的表现超过了黄金。
相信市场将回到长期平均水平的投资者,正在隐含地支持白银在未来的表现优于黄金。
格雷戈尔·斯皮尔克(Gregor Spilker)
离开聚光灯几年后,黄金市场又回来了。由于贸易战和地缘政治不确定性,投资者蜂拥至避险资产,其今年迄今的表现上涨了近20%。
随着美联储(Federal Reserve)变得温和,收益率全面下跌,投资和持有黄金的机会成本也降低了。金价突破了1,400美元/金衡盎司。金价在6月份突破了这一关口,这是自2013年黄金市场回调以来从未突破过的水平。
相对于银和铂等其他贵金属,2019年黄金的表现看起来更令人印象深刻。只有一种金属能够超过黄金:钯在一年内上涨了近40%。
金/银气压计
金银比显示了购买一盎司黄金需要多少盎司的白银。它是一个被广泛关注的黄金和白银相对价格的晴雨表。回顾过去20年,黄金-白银的平均比率约为64倍(一单位黄金将购买64单位白银)。2019年9月底,这一比率为87倍,略低于2019年6月创下的92倍的历史最高水平。目前,这一比率比其长期平均水平高出约33%,在第95个百分位数内--这意味着这一比率在这一时期只有5%或更少的时间处于这个水平。
消息来源:CME Group,Bloomberg
相信市场将回到长期平均水平的投资者,正在隐含地支持白银在未来的表现优于黄金。从历史上看,高黄金-白银比率与随后的白银与黄金的表现相关联。当这一比率处于最低五分之一时(这意味着相对于黄金而言,白银是最昂贵的),随后的12个月多银/空金交易的回报率为-14%。相反,当比率处于最高五分之一时,同样的交易将会有7%的回报率(就像现在的情况一样)。
来源:CME Group,Bloomberg,基于1999年10月至2019年9月的228个月读数)
黄金的贵金属铸件
如果说银是黄金的弟弟,那么钯和铂更像是远房亲戚。在2010年之前,铂金相对于黄金的交易溢价很高。现在的情况正好相反,黄金的报价高于铂金。两者之间的差价处于历史上前所未有的水平,溢价超过600美元/金衡盎司。黄金胜过白金。
汽车部门对铂的需求受到抑制;铂主要用于柴油发动机车辆的催化转化器,随着行业转向汽油发动机,以及在很小程度上是电动和混合动力汽车,柴油需求受到影响。尽管工业需求疲软,铂金相对于黄金的便宜可能会引起更多的兴趣--无论是来自金融投资者还是来自珠宝行业。
消息来源:CME Group,Bloomberg
钯今年成功地超过了黄金,增长了近40%,自2018年7月的低点以来翻了一番。有史以来第一次,金价稳定在1600美元/金衡盎司之上。在2019年9月。与铂金相比,这种金属对汽车需求的依赖性更大。
据Metal Focus称,催化转换器占铂需求的40%,但钯需求的80%。尽管全球汽车销售放缓,但中国收紧排放标准,并在其他地方远离柴油发动机,这意味着对钯的需求仍然强劲。供应相对集中在俄罗斯和南非,任何绿地采矿项目的准备时间都很长。
消息来源:CME Group,Bloomberg
对于任何关注贵金属市场的人来说,2019年肯定是令人兴奋的一年,金价突破了长期捍卫的阻力水平。一面的黄金与另一面的白金或白银之间的相对价值处于历史重要水平,表明贵金属复合体可能存在交易机会。
原邮政
编者按:本文的摘要项目符号是通过寻找Alpha编辑来选择的。