Summary
Central banks - mainly the Fed and the ECB - made a dovish pivot at the start of the year in response to the swoon in Q4 18. Whether they meant this to be a relatively modest shift or not, investors ran with the story.
Within a few months, markets were bullying Powell into rate cuts and by September, and pricing-in rate cuts and QE by the ECB.
In other words, the multiple-expanding support from a firm central bank put - perhaps even with a sprinkle of fiscal stimulus hopes - has reigned supreme in equities and driven yields lower, even as fundamentals have deteriorated.
Apologies in advance; it’s been too long since my latest report, mainly because I think observing markets has been a bit like listening to a broken record. To recap; central banks - mainly the Fed and the ECB - made a dovish pivot at the start of the year in response to the swoon in Q4 18. Whether they meant this to be a relatively modest shift or not, investors ran with the story. Within a few months, markets were bullying Powell into rate cuts and by September, and pricing-in rate cuts and QE by the ECB. In other words, the multiple-expanding support from a firm central bank put - perhaps even with a sprinkle of fiscal stimulus hopes - has reigned supreme in equities, and driven yields lower, even as fundamentals have deteriorated.Against this backdrop, the Fed and ECB have delivered, by and large, forcing markets to consider a shift in the Narrative that is now too persistent to ignore. I’d break it down into three separate themes.
Original Post
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
Summary
Central banks - mainly the Fed and the ECB - made a dovish pivot at the start of the year in response to the swoon in Q4 18. Whether they meant this to be a relatively modest shift or not, investors ran with the story.
各国央行--主要是美联储和欧洲央行--在今年初做出了温和的转向，以回应第18季度的低迷。无论这是否意味着这是一个相对温和的转变，投资者都在追随这个故事。
Within a few months, markets were bullying Powell into rate cuts and by September, and pricing-in rate cuts and QE by the ECB.
在几个月内，市场迫使鲍威尔降息，并在9月份之前将欧洲央行的降息和量化宽松计入价格。
In other words, the multiple-expanding support from a firm central bank put - perhaps even with a sprinkle of fiscal stimulus hopes - has reigned supreme in equities and driven yields lower, even as fundamentals have deteriorated.
换言之，在基本面恶化的情况下，来自央行坚定看跌期权的倍数扩张支持--或许甚至带着些许财政刺激的希望--在股市中占据主导地位，并推低了收益率。
Apologies in advance; it’s been too long since my latest report, mainly because I think observing markets has been a bit like listening to a broken record. To recap; central banks - mainly the Fed and the ECB - made a dovish pivot at the start of the year in response to the swoon in Q4 18. Whether they meant this to be a relatively modest shift or not, investors ran with the story. Within a few months, markets were bullying Powell into rate cuts and by September, and pricing-in rate cuts and QE by the ECB. In other words, the multiple-expanding support from a firm central bank put - perhaps even with a sprinkle of fiscal stimulus hopes - has reigned supreme in equities, and driven yields lower, even as fundamentals have deteriorated.Against this backdrop, the Fed and ECB have delivered, by and large, forcing markets to consider a shift in the Narrative that is now too persistent to ignore. I’d break it down into three separate themes.
提前道歉；自从我最新的报告以来已经太久了，主要是因为我认为观察市场有点像听一张打破的记录。简而言之，各国央行--主要是美联储和欧洲央行--在今年初做出了温和的转向，以应对第18季度的昏迷。无论这是否意味着这是一个相对温和的转变，投资者都在追随这个故事。在几个月内，市场迫使鲍威尔降息，并在9月份之前将欧洲央行的降息和量化宽松计入价格。换句话说，在基本面恶化的情况下，来自坚定的央行看跌期权的倍数扩大的支持--或许甚至带有些许财政刺激的希望--在股市中占据主导地位，并推低了收益率。在这种背景下，美联储和欧洲央行大体上实现了，迫使市场考虑改变叙述，这种转变现在太过执着，不容忽视。我会把它分成三个独立的主题。
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
编者按：本文的摘要项目符号是通过寻找Alpha编辑来选择的。
