We Think Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical (SHSE:600618) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical (SHSE:600618) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600618) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
传奇基金经理Li·Lu曾说过,最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。因此,当你考虑到任何一只股票的风险有多大时,你需要考虑债务可能是显而易见的,因为太多的债务可能会让一家公司倒闭。重要的是上海氯碱化工有限公司。(上海证券交易所:600618)确实背负着债务。但真正的问题是,这笔债务是否让该公司面临风险。
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候债务是个问题?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
债务是帮助企业发展的一种工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还贷款人的债务,那么它就只能听从贷款人的摆布。最终,如果公司不能履行其偿还债务的法定义务,股东可能会一无所有地离开。尽管这并不常见,但我们确实经常看到负债累累的公司永久性地稀释股东的权益,因为贷款人迫使他们以令人沮丧的价格筹集资金。当然,许多公司利用债务为增长提供资金,没有任何负面后果。当我们考虑一家公司的债务用途时,我们首先会把现金和债务放在一起看。
See our latest analysis for Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical
查看我们对上海氯碱化工的最新分析
What Is Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's Net Debt?
上海氯碱化工的净负债是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2023 Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical had debt of CN¥1.54b, up from CN¥1.23b in one year. But on the other hand it also has CN¥3.56b in cash, leading to a CN¥2.02b net cash position.
下图显示,截至2023年3月,上海氯碱化工的债务为人民币15.4亿元,高于一年内的人民币12.3亿元。但另一方面,它也有35.6亿元人民币的现金,导致20.2亿元的净现金头寸。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/pic/0-cd7d59bceab947c9799326bfc2d5337c-0-fb626ee9d701f2dee160e3c07c859c0e.png/big)
A Look At Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's Liabilities
上海氯碱化工负债情况一瞥
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical had liabilities of CN¥1.77b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥1.47b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥3.56b as well as receivables valued at CN¥824.3m due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥1.14b more liquid assets than total liabilities.
放大最新的资产负债表数据可以看到,上海氯碱化工有17.7亿元人民币的负债在12个月内到期,超过12个月的负债有14.7亿元人民币到期。作为这些债务的抵消,该公司有35.6亿加元的现金以及8.243亿加元的应收账款在12个月内到期。所以它实际上有11.4亿元人民币更多流动资产超过总负债。
This surplus suggests that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical has a conservative balance sheet, and could probably eliminate its debt without much difficulty. Simply put, the fact that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
这一盈余表明,上海氯碱化工拥有保守的资产负债表,很可能不会有太大困难地消除债务。简而言之,上海氯碱化工的现金多于债务,可以说是一个很好的迹象,表明它能够安全地管理债务。
It is just as well that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 49% over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
幸好上海氯碱化工的负担不是太重,因为它的息税前利润比去年下降了49%。收益下降(如果这种趋势持续下去)最终可能会使规模不大的债务面临相当大的风险。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但影响未来资产负债表表现的,将是上海氯碱化工的盈利。因此,当考虑债务时,绝对值得关注收益趋势。点击此处查看互动快照。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润只是不能削减这一点。虽然上海氯碱化工的资产负债表上有净现金,但它将息税前利润(EBIT)转换为自由现金流的能力仍值得一看,以帮助我们了解它正在以多快的速度建立(或侵蚀)现金余额。在过去三年中,上海氯碱化工的自由现金流总计为负。对于自由现金流不可靠的公司来说,债务的风险要大得多,因此股东们应该希望过去的支出能在未来产生自由现金流。
Summing Up
总结
While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical has net cash of CN¥2.02b, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. So we are not troubled with Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's debt use. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
虽然我们同情投资者对债务的担忧,但您应该记住,上海氯碱化工拥有20.2亿元人民币的净现金,流动资产多于负债。因此,我们对上海氯碱化工的债务使用并不感到困扰。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但归根结底,每家公司都可能包含存在于资产负债表之外的风险。请注意,上海氯碱化工正在展示我们的投资分析中的3个警告信号,其中一条不应被忽视……
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
总而言之,有时候专注于甚至不需要债务的公司会更容易。读者可以访问净债务为零的成长型股票列表100%免费,现在。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。