Producer Inflation Preview: The Hidden Factor That Could Tame CPI Enthusiasm
Producer Inflation Preview: The Hidden Factor That Could Tame CPI Enthusiasm
In the grand stage of economic ups and downs, there's a saying that echoes like a mantra: "The last mile is the toughest." This adage, it seems, finds a perfect resonance when it comes to understanding the inflation dynamics in the U.S.
在经济大起大落的大舞台上，有一句话响彻心头，就像一句口头禅：最后一英里是最艰难的。在理解美国的通胀动态时，这句格言似乎找到了完美的共鸣。
After the twist in July's consumer price index (CPI) report, in which the annual inflation rate ticked up to 3.2%, albeit slightly below the anticipated 3.3%, the spotlight now shifts to the impending release of the producer price index (PPI) inflation gauge on Friday.
在7月份消费者价格指数(CPI)报告出现转折后，尽管略低于预期的3.3%，但年通货膨胀率上升至3.2%，现在焦点转移到周五即将发布的生产者价格指数(PPI)通胀指标上。
As the Federal Reserve steadily aims for a return to the 2% consumer inflation target, the prices faced by producers must not sprint ahead once again, lest a domino effect hits the end consumer products.
随着美联储稳步将目标恢复到2%的消费者通胀目标，生产者面临的价格绝不能再次冲刺，以免多米诺骨牌效应冲击最终消费产品。
Yet, a chilling revelation might be on the horizon.
然而，一个令人不寒而栗的发现可能即将出现。
July's PPI Report: What Do Economists Foresee?
7月份的PPI报告：经济学家们预计会发生什么？
- The median economists' consensus projects a noticeable bump in the annual PPI for final demand, moving from a marginal 0.1% uptick in June to a more substantial 0.7% climb in July. That would snap a series of 12 consecutive declines in the annual PPI inflation rate.
- 经济学家的共识中值预测，最终需求的年度PPI将明显上升，从6月份的0.1%小幅上升到7月份更大的0.7%。这将结束PPI年通胀率连续12年的下降。
- On a monthly basis, the PPI index is expected to have accelerated by 0.2% in July, leaving behind the 0.1% from June.
- The core PPI index is anticipated to show a year-on-year increase of 2.3% for July, just a tad lower than June's 2.4%.
- On a monthly scale, the core PPI is also slated to advance at a 0.2% pace, edging up from the 0.1% witnessed in June.
- 按月计算，预计7月份PPI指数将加速上涨0.2%，较6月份的0.1%有所回落。
- 核心PPI指数预计将显示7月份同比增长2.3%，略低于6月份的2.4%。
- 在月度范围内，核心PPI预计也将上涨0.2%，略高于6月份的0.1%。
Read Also: Disinflation Talk Grows, Rate Hike Bets Plummet: Top 5 ETFs Rallying On CPI Miss
另请阅读：关于抑制通胀的讨论越来越多，加息押注暴跌：前5大ETF因CPI未达预期而上涨
Chart: June's PPI Inflation Plummeted To The Lowest Level Since August 2020
图表：6月PPI通胀率骤降至2020年8月以来最低
Commodities Rose In July, Traders Believe Fed Is Done With Hiking
7月份大宗商品价格上涨，交易员认为美联储已经结束加息
July emerged as a positive month for global commodities, which posted an increase not seen since March 2022.
7月份成为全球大宗商品的积极月份，实现了自2022年3月以来未曾见过的涨幅。
The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which is closely tracked by the iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (NYSE:CMDY) surged almost 6% last month, after rising 3.5% in June.
彭博大宗商品指数，该指数受到IShares Bloomberg Roll精选商品策略ETF(纽约证券交易所股票代码：CMDY)继6月份上涨3.5%后，上个月飙升近6%。
Rising commodity prices may affect the overall producer price index as the weight for final demand goods in the PPI basket hovers at about 30%.
大宗商品价格上涨可能会影响整体生产者价格指数，因为最终需求商品在PPI篮子中的权重徘徊在30%左右。
However, investors are increasingly convinced the Fed is about to end its rate-tightening campaign.
然而，投资者越来越相信，美联储即将结束其收紧利率的行动。
The odds of leaving rates on hold in September according to Fed futures market pricing rose to over 90% on Thursday. The same odds relative to the November meeting amounted to 70%.
根据美联储期货市场定价，9月份维持利率不变的可能性周四升至90%以上。与11月会议相比，同样的赔率达到了70%。
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图片：Shutterstock