share_log

UBS on Nvidia: Demand and Supply Dynamics Point to 'Kingmaker' Status With $14.5B Q3 Revenue Projection

UBS on Nvidia: Demand and Supply Dynamics Point to 'Kingmaker' Status With $14.5B Q3 Revenue Projection

瑞银谈英伟达:需求和供应动态指向 “Kingmaker” 地位,预计第三季度收入为145亿美元
Benzinga ·  2023/08/15 11:53

Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is on a roll as analysts rerate and boost estimates ahead of its quarterly results.

英伟达公司 纳斯达克股票代码:NVDA)股价上涨,原因是分析师在季度业绩公布前重新评级并提高了预期。

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri maintained Nvidia with a Buy and raised the price target from $475 to $540. Ahead of Nvidia's earnings next week, August 23, the analyst substantially raised estimates.

瑞银(UBS) 分析师蒂莫西·阿库里维持了英伟达的买入,并将目标股价从475美元上调至540美元。在英伟达下周(8月23日)公布财报之前,分析师大幅提高了预期。

Also Read: What's Going On With Nvidia Stock Tuesday?

另请阅读:周二英伟达股票怎么了?

Investor expectations for FY25 (CY24) EPS have risen substantially, but he recommended investors stay the course here and remain bullish amid the recent pullback in the stock over the past month.

投资者对25财年(CY24)每股收益的预期已大幅上升,但他建议投资者坚持下去,在最近一个月该股回调的情况下继续看涨。

Demand will dictate NVDA's long-term Al revenue opportunity, but supply should be the primary determinant for its data center revenue through CY24.

需求将决定NVDA的长期铝收入机会,但供应应该是其在CY24之前数据中心收入的主要决定因素。

Net, Arcuri sees ~$14.5 billion as a reasonable revenue bogey for Q3 and now sees NVDA tracking to ~$10 EPS this year and ~$17 in FY25 (CY24). NVDA is quite literally serving as a "kingmaker" as a huge wave of

实际上,Arcuri认为第三季度约为145亿美元是合理的收入柏忌,现在NVDA预计今年的每股收益约为10美元,在25财年(CY24)约为17美元。NVDA 实际上是 “造王者”,就像一大波浪潮一样

capital and new financing vehicles are chasing new Al software and specialized cloud infrastructure models while enterprises are still very early in a struggle to access enough capacity to build out Al at scale - this likely lasts well into next year.

资本和新的融资工具正在追逐新的Al软件和专业的云基础设施模型,而企业在努力获得足够的容量来大规模建造Al还处于初期阶段,这可能会持续到明年。

Even for more tactical investors, it still seems early to get off this train because Y/Y comps will not get tough until year-end, and the stock has rarely peaked before Y/Y.

即使对于更具战术性的投资者来说,现在下车似乎还为时过早,因为Y/Y的表现要到年底才会变得艰难,而且该股很少在Y/Y之前达到顶峰。

Arcuri estimates NVDA will grow from ~6% of the ~$250 billion data center spend TAM in C2022 (cloud+enterprise) to ~25% next year, reinforcing that cloud capex budgets must rise substantially to accommodate both the Al build-out and upgrades to traditional IT infrastructure.

Arcuri估计,NVDA将从 C2022(云+企业)约2500亿美元数据中心支出中的约6%增长到明年的25%左右,这进一步证实了云资本支出预算必须大幅增加才能适应Al的扩建和对传统IT基础设施的升级。

Arcuri estimates EPS of $2.14 for Q2 vs $2.06 Est, $2.68 - $2.93 for Q3 vs $2.29 Est and $2.99 - $3.88 for Q4 vs $2.49 Est.

Arcuri估计,第二季度每股收益为2.14美元,美国东部标准时间为2.06美元,第三季度为2.68美元至2.93美元,美国东部标准时间为2.29美元,第四季度为2.99美元至3.88美元,美国东部标准时间为2.49美元。

He projects EPS of $8.90 - $10.05 for Q1 FY24 vs. $7.94 Est, $12.22 - $17.25 for Q1 FY25 vs. $11.39 Est, and $12.48 - $17.71 for Q1 FY25 vs $14.04 Est.

他预计,24财年第一季度每股收益为8.90美元至10.05美元,美国东部标准时间为7.94美元,25财年第一季度为12.22至17.25美元,美国东部标准时间为11.39美元,25财年第一季度为12.48至17.71美元,美国东部标准时间为14.04美元。

The analyst estimates NVDA's GPU unit sell-in for CY23, CY24, and CY25 to be ~1.6 million, -3.4 million, and ~3.6 million, which includes -1.1 million, ~2.7 million, and ~1.5 million H100 units.

分析师估计,NVDA在CY23、CY24和CY25的GPU单元销量约为160万台、-340万台和约360万台,其中包括-110万台、约270万台和约150万台H100单元。

Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated Nvidia with an Overweight and raised the price target from $450 to $500.

富国银行 分析师亚伦·雷克斯重申了英伟达的增持,并将目标股价从450美元上调至500美元。

The price target representing ~40x his $12.60 CY25 EPS or his increasing confidence that NVDA's data center momentum coupled with software monetization can drive EPS upside and valuation support (vs. shares trading at a ~36x median NTM P/E over the past 5 yrs).

目标股价约为他在25财年每股收益12.60美元的40倍,或者他对NVDA的数据中心势头加上软件货币化可以推动每股收益上涨和估值支撑的信心越来越大(相比之下,过去5年NTM市盈率中位数约为36倍)。

The analyst believes a premium multiple for NVIDIA is warranted given a multiyear strong competitive positioning for data center growth driven by cloud and AI, gaming, next-generation autonomous vehicle applications, and an expanding ecosystem of products/applications (e.g., Omniverse).

这位分析师认为,鉴于在云和人工智能、游戏、下一代自动驾驶汽车应用程序以及不断扩大的产品/应用程序生态系统(例如Omniverse)的推动下,NVIDIA在数据中心增长方面多年来一直处于强劲的竞争地位,因此值得获得溢价倍数。

Price Action: NVDA shares traded higher by 1.42% at $443.79 on the last check Tuesday.

价格走势: 周二最后一次支票显示,NVDA股价上涨1.42%,至443.79美元。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
    抢沙发