Former Fed President Bullard Dismisses Recession Alarms, Foresees Possible Rate Hikes
Former Fed President Bullard Dismisses Recession Alarms, Foresees Possible Rate Hikes
In an exclusive interview with the Wall Street Journal ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole annual economic symposium, former St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard spoke about the U.S. economy's unexpected resilience and the potential for higher interest rates.
在美联储杰克森霍尔年度经济研讨会之前接受《华尔街日报》独家专访时，前圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德谈到了美国经济出人意料的弹性和加息的可能性。
Bullard, who recently assumed the position of Dean at Purdue University's Daniels School of Business, told WSJ's Nick Timiraos that predictions of an impending recession have been "blown out of the water."
布拉德最近在普渡大学丹尼尔斯商学院担任院长一职，他告诉《华尔街日报》尼克·蒂米拉奥斯有关经济衰退即将到来的预测已被“吹出水面”。
Bullard dismissed exaggerated recession predictions, emphasizing that the risks were not as dire as some on Wall Street believed.
布拉德驳斥了夸大的衰退预测，强调风险并不像华尔街一些人认为的那样可怕。
Bullard's analysis revealed that the U.S. economy's performance has far exceeded the expectations set earlier this year.
布拉德的分析显示，美国经济的表现远远超出了今年早些时候设定的预期。
With unemployment at 3.5%, Bullard lauded the Federal Reserve's success in taming inflation—reducing headline CPI inflation from 9% to slightly over 3%.
在失业率为3.5%的情况下，布拉德称赞美联储成功地将整体CPI通胀率从9%降至略高于3%。
When comparing the Fed's current tightening cycle to that of the 1970s, Bullard told WSJ: "This time we reacted more appropriately and more effectively, and now we're getting the fruits of that by getting inflation down."
在将美联储当前的紧缩周期与上世纪70年代的周期进行比较时，布拉德告诉《华尔街日报》：“这一次我们的反应更恰当、更有效，现在我们通过压低通胀取得了成果。”
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Navigating Uncharted Waters: Balancing Growth and Inflation
航行未知水域：平衡增长和通胀
Bullard emphasized that the pace of economic expansion, which was not initially anticipated, could necessitate further interest rate hikes. He cautioned that markets aren't "really ready for that."
布拉德强调，经济扩张的速度可能需要进一步加息，这是最初没有预料到的。他警告说，市场还没有“真正为此做好准备”。
He further emphasized the tight labor market and the U.S. economy's reacceleration, suggesting that inflation might not decrease as quickly as previously expected.
他进一步强调了紧张的劳动力市场和美国经济的重新加速，暗示通胀可能不会像之前预期的那样迅速下降。
Regarding a return to the pre-pandemic era of low interest rates and inflation, Bullard expressed skepticism.
对于回到大流行前的低利率和低通胀时代，布拉德表示怀疑。
As inflation remains above target, Bullard hinted at the likelihood of a prolonged period of slightly higher interest rates, signaling a shift from the low-rate regime that persisted since 2008.
由于通胀率仍高于目标水平，布拉德暗示，利率可能会在较长一段时间内略有上升，这标志着自2008年以来一直存在的低利率制度的转变。
According to Fed futures, markets are currently pricing in a 13.5% chance of a rate hike in September and a 35% chance of a hike by November's FOMC meeting. The yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury note, also tracked by the US Treasury Note ETF (NYSE:UTWO), traded around 5% on Wednesday.
根据美联储的预测，市场目前预计9月份加息的可能性为13.5%，11月份联邦公开市场委员会会议加息的可能性为35%。美国2年期国债收益率，也是由美国国债ETF(纽约证券交易所股票代码：UTWO)，周三交易价格约为5%。
Chart: US Interest Rates Recently Outpaced Inflation
图表：美国利率近期跑赢通胀
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
这些内容部分是在人工智能工具的帮助下制作的，并由Benzinga编辑进行了审查和发布。
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Photo: commons.wikimedia.org and Shutterstock
图片来源：Commons.wikimedia.org和Shutterstock