Is Dare Power Dekor Home Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000910) Trading At A 26% Discount?
Is Dare Power Dekor Home Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000910) Trading At A 26% Discount?
Key Insights
主要见解
- The projected fair value for Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd is CN¥11.32 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd's CN¥8.39 share price signals that it might be 26% undervalued
- Our fair value estimate is 7.3% lower than Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd's analyst price target of CN¥12.21
- 基于两阶段自由现金流转股权,Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd的预计公允价值为11.32元
- Dale Power Dekor HomeLtd 8.39元的股价暗示其价值可能被低估了26%
- 我们的公允价值估计比Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd分析师目标价12.21元低7.3%
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Dare Power Dekor Home Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000910) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
今天,我们将简单介绍一种估值方法,该方法用于评估Dare Power Dekor Home Co.,Ltd.(SZSE:000910)作为投资机会的吸引力,方法是将该公司未来预测的现金流折现回今天的价值。为此,我们将利用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。这听起来可能很复杂,但实际上很简单!
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
我们通常认为,一家公司的价值是它未来将产生的所有现金的现值。然而,贴现现金流只是众多估值指标中的一个,它也并非没有缺陷。对于那些热衷于学习股票分析的人来说,这里的Simply Wall St.分析模型可能会让你感兴趣。
Check out our latest analysis for Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd
查看我们对Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd.的最新分析
The Method
该方法
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。首先,我们必须对未来十年的现金流进行估计。由于没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们根据公司最近报告的价值推断出了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,所以这些未来现金流的总和就会贴现到今天的价值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥518.2m | CN¥491.4m | CN¥478.1m | CN¥473.4m | CN¥474.4m | CN¥479.5m | CN¥487.4m | CN¥497.4m | CN¥509.2m | CN¥522.2m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ -8.68% | Est @ -5.17% | Est @ -2.71% | Est @ -0.99% | Est @ 0.22% | Est @ 1.06% | Est @ 1.65% | Est @ 2.07% | Est @ 2.35% | Est @ 2.56% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.8% | CN¥472 | CN¥408 | CN¥361 | CN¥326 | CN¥298 | CN¥274 | CN¥254 | CN¥236 | CN¥220 | CN¥206 |
二零二四年 | 2025年 | 二零二六年 | 2027年 | 2028年 | 2029年 | 二0三0 | 2031年 | 2032年 | 2033年 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN元5.182亿元 | 净额4.914亿元 | 净额4.781亿元 | 净额4.734亿元 | 净额4.744亿元 | CN元4.795亿元 | 净额4.874亿元 | 净额4.974亿元 | CN元5.092亿元 | CN元5.222亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | Est@-8.68% | Est@-5.17% | Est@-2.71% | Est@-0.99% | Est@0.22% | Est@1.06% | Est@1.65% | Est@2.07% | Est@2.35% | Est@2.56% |
现值(CN元,百万)贴现@9.8% | CN元472元 | CN元408元 | CN元361元 | CN元326元 | CN元298元 | CN元274元 | CN元254元 | CN元236元 | CN元220元 | CN元206元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.1b
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN人民币31亿元
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.8%.
我们现在需要计算终端价值,它说明了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率3.0%的5年平均水平。我们以9.8%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥522m× (1 + 3.0%) ÷ (9.8%– 3.0%) = CN¥8.0b
终端值(TV)=FCF2033年×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元522M×(1+3.0%)?(9.8%-3.0%)=CN元8.0B
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥8.0b÷ ( 1 + 9.8%)10= CN¥3.1b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元8.0亿?(1+9.8%)10=CN人民币31亿元
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥6.2b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥8.4, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 26% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
总价值是未来十年的现金流总和加上贴现的终端价值,得出总股权价值,在本例中为人民币62亿元。为了得到每股内在价值,我们将其除以总流通股数量。与目前8.4元的股价相比,该公司的股价似乎略有低估,较目前的股价有26%的折让。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20230903/0-8d9fae9925d774bf7c07b889035c8ef6-0-5a770e1a637a3a2f0485bb5442db57f1.png/big)
The Assumptions
假设
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.111. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
我们要指出,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。您不必同意这些输入,我建议您自己重新计算并使用它们。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了9.8%,这是基于杠杆率为1.111的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
SWOT Analysis for Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd
Dare Power Dekor家居有限公司的SWOT分析
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- 债务不被视为一种风险。
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- 股息由收益和现金流支付。
- Dividend information for 000910.
- 000910年度股息信息。
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- 在过去的一年里,公司的收益有所下降。
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Building market.
- 与建筑市场前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- 预计未来三年的年收入将会增长。
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- 基于市盈率和估计公允价值的良好价值。
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Chinese market.
- 预计该公司的年度收益增速将低于中国市场。
- What else are analysts forecasting for 000910?
- 分析师们对000910的预测还包括什么?
Moving On:
下一步:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd, we've put together three further items you should further examine:
就构建你的投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,理想情况下,它不会是你为一家公司仔细审查的唯一分析。用贴现现金流模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。相反,贴现现金流模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。例如,如果终端价值增长率稍有调整,可能会极大地改变整体结果。股价低于内在价值的原因是什么?对于Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd,我们又整理了三个你应该进一步研究的项目:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 000910's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- 风险例如,我们发现Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd的1个警告标志在这里投资之前你应该意识到这一点。
- 未来收益:000910‘S的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新其针对每只中国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。