Why Disney's 'Melting Iceberg' ESPN Is Unlikely To Attract Apple As Buyer: Analyst Breaks It Down
Why Disney's 'Melting Iceberg' ESPN Is Unlikely To Attract Apple As Buyer: Analyst Breaks It Down
$Disney (DIS.US)$ is amid a restructuring exercise as it faces fundamental challenges and there are rumors adrift that the company might offload its ESPN cable sports channel.
$迪士尼 (DIS.US)$ 正在进行重组，因为它面临着根本性的挑战，而且有传言称该公司可能会转移其ESPN有线体育频道。
An analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets weighed in on the value ESPN has for Disney.
KeyBanc Capital Markets的一位分析师权衡了ESPN对迪士尼的价值。
Muted Expectations: ESPN is a "melting iceberg," said KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brandon Nispel. Its valuation could be currently at $30 billion, assuming nine times the valuation multiple of the estimated EBITDA estimate for 2024. The fair value range is at $28 billion to $36 billion, he said.
低调的期望： KeyBanc Capital Markets分析师布兰登·尼斯佩尔表示，ESPN是一座 “融化的冰山”。假设其估值是2024年估计息税折旧摊销前利润估计值的九倍，其估值目前可能为300亿美元。他说，公允价值区间为280亿至360亿美元。
The analyst estimates ESPN's revenue to be $16 billion, and expects it to have a low-single-digit revenue growth profile. Much of the growth will likely come from the direct-to-consumer business as linear revenues are tracing a downward trajectory, he said.
这位分析师估计，ESPN的收入为160亿美元，并预计其收入增长将达到较低的个位数。他说，由于线性收入呈下降趋势，大部分增长可能来自直接面向消费者的业务。
Assuming $10.1 billion in programming and production costs for ESPN in fiscal year 2023, ESPN's operating income margins will likely be in the low 20%, he added.
他补充说，假设ESPN在2023财年的节目和制作成本为101亿美元，那么ESPN的营业收入利润率可能会处于20％的低水平。
"We view the value of ESPN as likely below the consensus, which is just one of the five reasons we are cautious on DIS," the analyst said.
这位分析师表示：“我们认为ESPN的价值可能低于共识，这只是我们对DIS持谨慎态度的五个原因之一。”
ESPN's fundamental outlook is negative and could materially worsen if $Charter Communications (CHTR.US)$distribution agreement isn't renewed, Nispel said.
ESPN的基本面前景是负面的，如果出现以下情况可能会大幅恶化 $特许通讯 (CHTR.US)$尼斯佩尔说，分销协议没有续签。
"The opportunity for ESPN in streaming means price increases are coming, which will challenge scale," he added.
他补充说：“ESPN在直播领域的机会意味着价格上涨即将到来，这将挑战规模。”
Patience Is Virtue: KeyBanc said it is unlikely that $Apple (AAPL.US)$ will buy ESPN. "While some believe ESPN could be worth $50B and AAPL is likely an acquirer, we don't believe it is likely AAPL will acquire the business when valuations may be coming down in the future," it said.
耐心就是美德： KeyBanc 表示，这种可能性不大 $苹果 (AAPL.US)$ 会收购 ESPN。它说：“尽管有些人认为ESPN的市值可能为500亿美元，而AAPL很可能是收购方，但我们认为AAPL在未来估值可能下降时不太可能收购该业务。”
Patience, according to Nispel, is the best transaction strategy, given ESPN is a renter of content and rents continue to increase more quickly than Disney.
根据尼斯佩尔的说法，耐心是最好的交易策略，因为ESPN是内容的租赁者，租金的增长速度继续快于迪士尼。
2 Near-Term Events: The analyst sees Disney re-segmenting and breaking out ESPN from Disney entertainment and the company's Investor Summit focused on Disney Parks, Experiences and Products as two notable events for Disney in the near term.
2 近期事件： 这位分析师认为，迪士尼重新细分ESPN并将其从迪士尼娱乐公司中脱颖而出，以及该公司以迪士尼乐园、体验和产品为重点的投资者峰会是迪士尼在短期内的两项值得注意的活动。
"We view neither event as a positive catalyst for shares," he said.
他说：“我们认为这两个事件都不是股票的积极催化剂。”
KeyBanc has a Sector Weight rating for Disney shares.
KeyBanc对迪士尼股票进行行业权重评级。