Morgan Stanley Analyst Sees Efficiency Upside for Amazon, Predicts 20% - 60% Stock Price Upside
Morgan Stanley Analyst Sees Efficiency Upside for Amazon, Predicts 20% - 60% Stock Price Upside
The analyst notes that AMZN trades at ~27X this "efficiency upside" FY25 EPS, or a 0.6X PEG, a ~15%-75% discount to consumer, retail, and mega-cap tech peers. Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak has an Overweight rating on Amazon.Com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) with a price target of $175.
摩根士丹利 分析师 布莱恩·诺瓦克 “增持” 评级为 亚马逊公司 纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），目标股价为175美元。
His analysis gives him more confidence in his $4.40 base case FY25 EPS while also painting a path toward ~$5.20 of FY25 EPS in an "efficiency upside" case.
他的分析使他对25财年每股收益4.40美元的基本情况更有信心，同时也在 “效率上升” 的情况下为25财年每股收益约5.20美元开辟了道路。
Also Read: Amazon's Enhanced Shopping Features: A Challenge to Google and Pinterest
另请阅读：亚马逊增强的购物功能：谷歌和 Pinterest 面临的挑战
The analyst notes that AMZN trades at ~27X this "efficiency upside" FY25 EPS, or a 0.6X PEG, a ~15%-75% discount to consumer, retail, and mega-cap tech peers.
这位分析师指出，AMZN的交易价格约为25财年每股收益的 “效率上行空间” 的27倍，或0.6倍的PEG，与消费、零售和大型股科技同行相比，折扣约为15％-75％。
Nowak expects AMZN to remain disciplined and ROI-focused on forward investment in core (grocery) and emerging (Kuiper, Echo) projects.
诺瓦克预计，AMZN将保持纪律，专注于对核心（杂货）和新兴（Kuiper、Echo）项目的远期投资。
However, he thinks that the path to $5+ of EPS will likely come down to efficiency from 3 main areas, including lower shipping and fulfillment cost/unit through higher square footage/headcount utilization, content cost discipline quickly leading to reported retail profit upside, and 1P merchandise margins still below FY18/FY19 levels, and every 100bp is ~$2 billion of EBIT.
但是，他认为，每股收益超过5美元的道路可能归结为三个主要领域的效率，包括通过更高的平方英尺/员工利用率降低每单位的运费和配送成本，内容成本纪律迅速导致报告的零售利润上涨，以及1便士的商品利润率仍低于18/2019财年的水平，每100个基点约为20亿美元的息税前利润。
In his view, $5+ of EPS from "efficiency upside" paints the path toward a $160-$230 share price (60% upside).
在他看来，“效率上涨” 带来的5美元以上的每股收益为160-230美元（上行空间为60％）铺平了道路。
Price Action: AMZN shares traded higher by 0.25% at $145.22 on the last check Thursday.
价格走势： 在周四的最后一张支票中，AMZN股价上涨0.25％，至145.22美元。
